Chase Wilsey ציבורי
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Lawsuits Against Apple On Thursday, March 21st, the Department of Justice (DOJ) filed an anti-trust lawsuit along with 16 states against Apple. The DOJ claims Apple’s iPhone ecosystem is a monopoly that drove its “astronomical valuation” at the expense of consumers, developers and rival phone makers. The lawsuit claims that Apple’s anti-competitive…
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CPI The Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in a little bit hotter than expected as the headline number for February showed an annual increase of 3.2% versus on expectation of 3.1% and the core CPI showed an annual increase of 3.8% versus an expectation of 3.7%. While it was not much progress, there was still a decline from last month’s core CPI readin…
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Labor Market While the headline number of 275k jobs created easily topped the estimate of 198k and sparked concerns the labor market remained too hot, the details of the report showed a much softer labor market. To begin, the prior two months saw a downward revision of 167k jobs, which more than offsets the beat we saw in the month of February. Als…
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401k Loans It was nice to see that retirement assets saw a nice increase in 2023. According to Fidelity, the average 401k was up 14% from a year earlier to $118,600 and the average IRA was up 12% to $116,600. While it is good to see this progress, balances are still short of the year end 2021 levels when the average 401k reached $136k and the avera…
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Commercial Real Estate We hear that commercial real estate properties are having problems, but how bad are those problems? After the 2008/2009 financial crisis, by the second quarter of 2010 commercial property had a record $194.8 billion properties in distress. Compare that to the end of 2023, when commercial properties in distress totaled $86 bil…
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AI Outlook So Far Microsoft spent about $7 million per 30 second ad for the Super Bowl promoting their Copilot AI service. Some results are not coming in so good for Copilot with some testers after using the software for more than six months said it was useful but doesn’t live up to its price. Another survey adopter said the initial excitement wear…
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CPI One of the main reasons I continue to believe the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will continue to decelerate this year is I don’t believe there will be as much pressure from the shelter index. In December, the median U.S. asking rent price fell 0.8% from the prior year to $1,964. According to Redfin, this marked the third consecutive monthly declin…
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Employment Situation The numbers for nonfarm payrolls blew away expectations as they expanded by 353,000 in the month of January. This easily topped the estimate for 185,000. Job growth was widespread as it grew in every major category except for mining and logging which saw a decline of 6k in the month. Two areas that remained extremely strong wer…
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GDP Report I would say the GDP report was an extremely strong indicator that the economy is progressing in the right direction. While the growth number in Q4 of 3.3% was impressive compared to the estimate for a 2% gain, I believe the inflation numbers were even more important. The PCE price index increased just 1.7% in the fourth quarter and when …
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Banks and the Economy Each quarter we get very excited to see what the major banks have to say about the consumer and the economy. Last Friday, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America and Citigroup all reported earnings. The overall comments were the consumer is still strong. The CEO of Wells Fargo said average deposit balances per customer remain a…
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Inflation Numbers While the headline inflation numbers were above estimates, I wouldn’t say there were really any surprises in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Headline CPI rose 3.4% vs the estimate of 3.2% and core CPI rose 3.9% vs the estimate of 3.8%. Although it was slightly higher than anticipated, progress is still being made on the inf…
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Jobs Report There was initial concern that the jobs report was too strong and could point to inflationary concerns. After digging into the report, I believe it is still in line with our belief that the economy is in a good enough spot to have a soft landing and avoid further inflationary pressures. The initial concern stemmed from the fact that hea…
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Santa Claus Rally If you felt disappointed in your gifts from Santa this year, there is still hope he brings your investments some nice returns. We are currently in the middle of the Santa Claus rally which is the period of time that includes the last five trading days of the current year and the first two trading days of the new year. Historically…
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CPI The Consumer Price Index (CPI) did not show us much new news and I believe it will be enough for the Fed to keep rates steady and put an end to their hiking cycle. The headline number showed just a 3.1% increase compared to last year and the core CPI, which excludes food and energy showed an increase of 4%. The headline number saw a nice benefi…
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Employment While the headline numbers for the jobs report showed results that beat expectations, when you look closely at the report it shows a softening labor market which is exactly what the Fed wants to see. Nonfarm payrolls in the month of November showed a gain of 199,000 which topped the estimate of 190,000 and the unemployment rate fell to 3…
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Annual Home Sales The higher interest rates have put a damper on home sales, which is no surprise. The seasonally adjusted annual sales came in at 3.8 million for October. Not only is that a decline of 4.1% from September, it is the lowest seasonally adjusted annual home sales since August 2010 which was over 13 years ago. As interest rates pull ba…
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PPI More great news on the inflation front as the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.5% in the month of October, which was well below expectations for a 0.1% increase. This also marked the largest monthly decline since April 2020. Compared to last year, the index showed an increase of just 1.3% which was a nice decline from September’s reading of 2.…
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PC Sales We have seen global shipments of PCs decline to 245 million this year, a drop of nearly 100 million from 2021 when global shipments reached 342 million. You may think that PCs are going to go the way of the dinosaur, but that is not the case. Personal computer companies are preparing new PCs that will begin arriving within the next few mon…
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Employment While the employment numbers missed expectations, it is a big positive for interest rates as the labor market is slowing and should provide evidence for the Fed that their hiking cycle can end. The headline number showed nonfarm payrolls increased by just 150,000 in the month of October vs the expectation for an increase of 170,000. The …
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Investing Volatility A recent client survey by Charles Schwab produced some viable insights during difficult times like this. Over the longer term 33% of investors attributed their greatest investing success to patience through volatility. It is hard to patient during the ups and downs, but the reality is when holding good quality investments, it h…
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CPI I was somewhat disappointed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as I believed there would be a slower growth in the inflation rate. With that being said, I don’t believe the report is problematic. The headline number for September of 3.7% matched August’s rate and was only slightly ahead of the expectation of 3.6%. The core rate which excludes fo…
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Jobs Report The September jobs report was released on Friday, October 6 and at first glance it was scary because it was so good. But then as the day moved on the report was analyzed further and positive information was found. What was scary about the report was 336,000 jobs created, twice as much as expected. This caused concern that there would be…
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Food Stocks I enjoy food quite a bit, but looking at food stocks I’m beginning to think I like them better. Food companies in 2023 are down between 15 to 25%, and these are levels that some have not seen in 10 years or longer. You know a lot of their names like Kellogg and Campbell Soup. They are not as exciting as tech companies, which have really…
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US Advantages I always enjoy seeing advantages of the United States over China. In the recent book “Chip War” written by Chris Miller he writes that across the entire semiconductor supply chain, including chip design, intellectual property, tools, fabrication and other steps, the Chinese only has a 6% market share. That compares to 39% for the US, …
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UAW Strike Based on recent readings, it looks like the UAW will strike against the auto makers. I’m certain the auto makers will need to increase pay for the auto workers, but this could perhaps cause them to raise the prices of their cars to cover the increase in labor costs. I hope the head of the union and union workers read the following. It no…
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Jobs Report The Jobs Report reaffirmed exactly what the Fed should be looking for and that is a softening labor market. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 187,000 in the month of August. This beat expectations of 170,000, but the previous two months were revised lower by a total of 110,000 payrolls. This would put the three-month average at around 150,0…
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Home Sales Existing home sales fell 2.2% in the month of July from June. Compared to July 2022, sales were down 16.6% and homes sold as the slowest July pace since 2010. Demand has definitely been hit by rising interest rates and on Monday, the average interest rate on 30-year mortgages rose to 7.48%. This was the highest level since November 2000.…
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Real Estate Investment Trust Months ago at my investment firm, Wilsey Asset Management, we made a decision to go into a real estate investment trust to begin buying class A commercial property that was on sale. I was happy to read recently that the big Wall Street firms are now raising billions of dollars to invest in commercial property that is on…
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United Auto Workers I understand that unions want to try and provide benefits for their workers, but the United Auto Workers (UAW) seems to be asking for unachievable demands. The negotiations with Stellantis, Ford, and General Motors are underway and the UAW is demanding a 46% pay increase over the next few years. There would be a 20% increase eff…
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Jobs Report The Jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls grew by 187,000 in the month of July, which missed the estimate of 200,000. The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5% vs the estimate it would hold at 3.6%. Areas of strength included healthcare and social assistance (+87,100), construction (+19,000), and leisure and hospitality (+17,000). Healthc…
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Stocks When it comes to managing our half billion dollar portfolio, we always talk about how it is a market of stocks and not a stock market. With that being said, it doesn’t mean we don’t have a clue what’s going on with the indexes. We continue to feel that the indexes will fall from the rapid upward climb this year. What do we base that on? With…
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CPI If I told you last year we would see inflation at 3%, would you believe it? In the month of June that is exactly what we saw as the CPI rose 0.2% compared to May and it was up just 3% compared to last June. Energy prices continued to be a major positive as they fell 16.7% compared to last year with unleaded regular gasoline falling 27.1%. Other…
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Employment Report The employment report showed nonfarm payrolls increased 209,000 in the month of June which was well below the expectation for growth of 240,000. Payrolls were also revised lower by 110,000 in the months of April and May. The report marked the slowest month for job creation since December 2020 when payrolls fell by 268,000. So far …
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Inflation The Fed's preferred gauge for inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, showed inflation is continuing to cool. The headline number came in at 3.8%, which is below last month's reading of 4.3% and well below last May's reading of 6.5%. This was the lowest rate we have seen since April 2021. Food prices have remai…
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Stock Valuations The tech boom and bust is often referenced as an example of the dangers of high valuations in the stock market, but one that is less talked about is the Nifty-Fifty. This was a group of 50 stocks back in the early 1970s that were known as "one decision stocks" meaning you could buy and hold forever. Investors became enamored by the…
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Inflation Inflation continues to retreat from the high levels we saw last year. May's CPI report showed headline inflation rose 4% when compared to last year. This is a nice deceleration from last month's 4.9% gain, and it is well off last June's 9% increase. Areas that remained hot in the report included motor vehicle repair (+19.7%), motor vehicl…
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Jobs Report After analyzing the recent jobs report further, I noticed some good news that was somewhat buried. There’s been concerns in this job market about the labor force participation rate remaining flat at 62.6%, which is still below the February 2020 pre-pandemic level of 63.3%. What appears to be happening is that the aging US population is …
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Jobs Report Overall, I'd say the jobs report showed some good numbers. The headline number was strong with an addition of 339,000 new hires, easily topping the estimate of 190,000. The prior two months were also revised upwards by a total of 93,000. Payrolls were particularly strong in health care and social assistance (+74,600), professional and b…
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US Debt The talk began Thursday morning about a rating downgrade for US debt. The bad news continues to make headlines and drive broader markets and value stocks lower. We took a look at the US debt versus GDP which is similar to looking at debt versus income and over the last three years the ratio has been declining. In the second quarter of 2020 …
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Consumers Based on retail sales it looks like the consumer is softening, but I would not say to problematic levels. In the month of April retail sales rose 0.4% compared to last month and were 1.6% higher compared to last April. One problem here is these sales do not adjust for inflation and with inflation increasing 4.9% compared to last year, it …
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CPI Headline CPI of 4.9% came in below expectations of 5.0% and registered the slowest growth since April 2021. It also marked the 10th consecutive month of slower growth since the report peaked in June 2022 at 9%. Areas that continued to see a growth in prices were food (+7.7%), motor vehicle insurance (+15.5%), transportation services (+11.0%), a…
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Jobs Report The jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls increased 253,000 in the month of April, which easily topped the estimate of 180,000. On the negative side, the prior two months saw revisions to the downside that totaled 149,000. Gains continue to moderate in the report as the April gain was below the 6-month average of 290,000, but with an unem…
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GDP Report While the GDP report showed the economy grew at an annualized seasonally adjusted rate of just 1.1% and was below expectations of 2.0%, it showed the consumer is still spending. In total, the consumer portion of GDP grew 3.7% as goods increased 6.5% and services spending grew 2.3%. What really hurt the report was private investment as it…
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Remote Work Another sign that workers will be coming back to the office was a report that showed tech companies over-hired and that working from home did not prove to be that effective. Year to date, tech companies have laid off approximately 168,000 people and the layoffs are occurring for a couple reasons. First, they discovered that people were …
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CPI Headline CPI came in at 5% compared to last year, which was the lowest level since the May 2021 report and well off the June 2022 high of 9%. Some reasons for the slower gain include gasoline which was down 17.4%, used cars and trucks down 11.2%, televisions down 14%, and uncooked beef roasts down 4.4%. Areas that remain elevated include transp…
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Jobs Report Given the concerns around the economy, I'd say the jobs report was a positive one. It wasn't too hot which would've provided evidence for the Fed to increase rates more than anticipated, but it also wasn't too far below expectations and overall, it showed a softening labor market not a bad labor market. Headline payrolls grew by 236,000…
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Consumer Confidence I was happy to see the consumer confidence number come in today at 104.2 for March which was up from February’s 103.4. For me this is another positive sign that we will not have a major recession, and that consumers will continue to spend on goods and services. I want to emphasize this is a good number not a great number. The re…
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Retirement Investment Rule I was disappointed to see Joe Biden veto the resolution to overturn a retirement investment rule that allows managers of retirement funds to consider the impact of climate change and other environmental, social and governance factors when picking investments. Biden says he signed the veto because "legislation passed by th…
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Volatility of Stocks It amazes me how people believe that stocks are too risky and real estate is a much safer investment. Looking back nearly 50 years the truth is stocks have more volatility than real estate, but the returns on stocks far outperform real estate. Using a nationwide real estate Index versus the S&P 500 from 1975 to 2022, a $100 inv…
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Jobs Report The headline jobs number of 311,000 easily topped the estimate of 225,000 but marks a slowdown from January's level of 504,000. Leisure and hospitality remained strong with an addition of 105,000 jobs. With this solid number, the sector is now just 2.4% or 410,000 jobs below the February 2020 level. Other areas of strength included heal…
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