Manage episode 274008414 series 1126765
This insightful interview of Dr Simon Thornley of Auckland University again shows that there are good reasons for us in this country to question authority and then furnished with new, rigorous evidence - chart our own course.
During the COVID lockdown crises, NZ as a country hunkered down as a "Team of Five Million" as the Prime Minister called us. We essentially did what we thought was in the best interests for the nation as a whole. However, after a short time there came from the academic realm, another voice that said hold on a moment, the statistics coming in seem to be not telling the full story, so let’s take another look at what's really happening?
This voice was Dr Simon Thornley who courageously stated that the facts were indeed not clearly stated. He also noted that Professor John Ioannidis of the Department of Epidemiology from Stanford University in the US was finding the same slanted stats and later on - Prof Carl Heneghan of Oxford University, in the UK also noted this.
When Simon looked at the early evidence at the first stages of the lockdown - of who were in hospital or were very unwell the statistics showed people dying who were actually expected to die in a short while anyway - as a result of old age or other comorbidities - such as heart problems, cancer and other ends of life ailments.
The statistics that he was able to gather showed by far the majority of people who were dying were in the 80s to 90s. This was supported in a Sky News Broadcast on the 20th of September they said that …. Back in July a statistical anomaly was spotted which changed the way COVID 19 deaths were counted. Previously Public Health England included any death of a person who had previously had Covid 19 as a Corona virus fatality even if they had recovered from the virus and died of another cause - and the person who spotted that was professor Carl Hennigan from the University of Oxford - who has been quite critical of the UK lockdown, going a step further stating that the British PM was surrounded by mediocre advisors!
In the interview, Simon lays out the anomalies and says that we in NZ need to be cautious, protect the elderly in particular and open up the country which means schools as well.
There are a good number of profound points covered in this ranging interview and the big one is that this Covid is very much like a very severe flu. Saying that this virus is not as deadly as we had initially believed.
https://youtu.be/SgixfAGVwT4 Simon on ‘Plan B’
Simon talks about when a virus kicks in it expands and reaches a climax at the top of the bell curve and then falls away. That is even with no intervention - saying that the virus eventually burns itself out - this is what we call herd immunity.
This is the way we recover from 99%of virus afflictions - that’s basically it.
So he says that the strategy that needs to be on the table, which Sweden was discussing was ‘herd immunity’ and sheltering the vulnerable - we knew for example that people in rest homes, in hospitals, were very susceptible to the virus - certainly people over the age of 65 - much more than people under that age … so that was a reasonable strategy …and he (like me) got behind the NZ Govt’s initial response to protect hospitals and rest homes and avoid the spread of the virus in hospitals. However, Simon said that the response went further with slogans - like “we are going in hard and early” and “we are going to eliminate the virus” and he said we know that the hospitals were never under threat in NZ. That even in the height of Covid - there was spare capacity.
Simon says that he sees that Covid19 has taken this ‘exalted status’ - and it concerns him - given its overall importance that in many ways there are many other important challenges within the health domain. Mental health and suicides which was mentioned towards the end of this interview.
We talk about Turkey and they locking down only the young and the elderly and having everyone between 20 and 70 stay at work and they had the same death toll - per % of population - virtually the same as Switzerland, even though the Swiss followed the conventional lockdown procedure.
Simon mentions that the Turk’s obviously were paying attention as to who was really at risk. Saying he is not sure about the young ones - the children and that his reading of the situation is that they are even at a lower risk of anything happening in terms of severe outcomes. Especially when compared with middle age people etc, that keeping the economy going seemed very sensible.
The Icelandic Experience - In Iceland they tested a considerable number and they found many with - Asymptomatic infection - so people there were testing positive with Covid - but without symptoms - so that was crucial information as we initially thought that everyone with Covid had severe symptoms and were going to need hospital treatment and may end up being fatal.
So this was important - and there are big questions as to why - and the knock-on effect around our planet is - why the degree of lockdown when Iceland showed up anomalies and people with Covid - did not fall ill?
Also Iceland opened up its borders and they seem to have readjusted their risk to some degree to the virus …. That their tourism industries are recovering …Listen
Also talked about was the CVC https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html in the USA and the rewriting of Covid deaths down to 6%. - you will have to listen
He states this ratio is of high interest and that is simply about the number of people who die of Covid and also who die because of Covid - stating there is a distinction there … and he says the definition is INTERESTING - divided by the total number of people who have Covid and initially the WHO stated this was very important that this was high - much much higher than what we would expect for influenza - for example about 3.4% for example - where we expect influenza to be about 0.1% or 1 in a thousand - so the WHO was saying - 3 to 4 in a hundred were dying compared to 1 in a thousand with flu - however listen to how Simon covers this and you will hear that the fatalities of Covid have been ‘dialing down’ more and more that they are now getting closer to the range of seasonal influenzas.
Listen as Professor John Ioannidis of the Department of Epidemiology from Stanford University is quoted as saying the fatality rate is about 3 in a thousand - the CDC is a little bit higher than that, at 0.6% - so he says we are seeing a ‘dialling back’ of the fatality rate from the virus.
Note that the age of deaths by Covid in NZ is virtually the same as for normal or natural mortality as he compared this for the year 2019 …Listen … that the distribution was virtually exactly the same. as the ages of the people who had died with Covid in NZ.
Simon mentions that this virus is not as deadly as we have initially believed - (Listening to this interview is better - it’s only 22 meg)
Prof Carl Heneghan Oxford Prof - Watch - evidence based medicine - Sky TV interview https://youtu.be/dxm2HZp8c3A
The Professor even states that “the British PM was surrounded by mediocre advisors”
That corona viruses and flu are seasonal - so listen
Love, connection and being with family and kin - is very important, if not imperative.
We hear that within the public health community there is a perception that by locking everyone down this is one-way they see as keeping us safe etc … like risk-free… by intervention - but there is also a knock-on effect as there is a major loss of connection - that people need to be with each other and experience love and family and warmth, plus touch being imperative for family and community.
But also stated is that we now know that locking down has very serious implications - such as in England - not only to the economy - but with Covid that people who are suffering from diabetes and cardiovascular to cancer, strokes - you name it - are now not receiving the attention that they previously received as Covid has cornered everyone's attention.
Here in NZ 50,000 people have gone on the unemployment benefit and being unemployed takes away people's feelings of self-worth. Paid Employment is very good for mental health. Not enough money for decent food - results in poor nutrition and also poor thinking and decision making.
As a result, he says - the lockdown is going to increase inequalities in NZ.
The NZ Govt itself did an analysis through the Productivity Commission on extending the lockdown for another 5 days in relation to the costs and it was clear to the economists writing that paper that they came to the conclusion of 95 to one - compared to the benefits - and this is information that the Govt was writing itself.
But this information was eventually swept aside … and it only came out through an Official Information Act Inquiry.
Govt insiders are thankful that there is another point of view addressing the Official Narrative.
Simon also mentions that he has had some contact with people in Government and they are glad that they are hearing another point of view - because they are concerned that New Zealanders are in many ways only getting a one-sided story.
This was startling - the PCR test is only about 70% successful. Putting the swab up your nose.
That microbiologists had to battle the NZ Government from sending infectious patients being sent back to rest homes - this is a shocker … NOTE this was an important factor in NZ’s apparent success, in keeping infections at bay.
The frail and the elderly have never responded well to any vaccine.
That fast-tracking a vaccine still could take years - saying the Mumps vaccine was the fastest, being produced at 4 years.
That ultimately we will have to live with the virus - ultimately
Hydroxychloroquine - has had some good results, especially the latest Belgium study. But we still need more research. Yet, very recently seven States in the USA have given the OK for Doctors to use it.
This was a very exciting interview for me - because Simon had an understanding that was considered outside the conventional viewpoint. The only thing was that there was only a certain amount of time to cover these questions.
This 6 minute video gives us another insight. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kB0MEjHgkfM&feature=youtu.be
NEXT Week's interview is not yet sorted - however we will be doing our best to bring you the best information we can. - Tim