Indonesia In-Ten E3 | Indonesia's Shifting Political Landscape

Indonesia In-depth

Nothing is permanent when it comes to relationships among political parties in Indonesia. As parties lack strong ideologies, most relationships are established when it’s deemed beneficial rather than based on issues to stances. It’s now beneficial for both Gerindra and PDIP to collaborate and build a strong relationship, both at the local and national level, with the aim of building a strong coalition heading into the 2024 election.

Anies Baswedan and Sandiaga Uno were inaugurated as Jakarta governor and deputy governor in October 2017. Their ticket was supported mainly by the Gerindra Party and the PKS Party. PKS, a smaller, Islam-oriented party, has been Gerindra’s loyal political partner at the national level for nearly a decade and was seen as an important coalition member for both the 2014 and 2019 presidential elections.

Sandi, a senior member of Gerindra, resigned as deputy governor in August 2018, just after one year in office, to run for the vice presidency on Prabowo Subianto’s ticket in the 2019 election. Sandi’s departure left the politically strategic seat empty for more than one and a half years.

● According to the law on local elections, parties that support the gubernatorial ticket have the right to fill the empty seat and can submit candidate names to the Jakarta City Council (DPRD) to be reviewed and later a final candidate will be selected to fill the seat. As governor, Anies does not have the authority to choose Sandi’s successor nor does he have strong influence in the decision making process.

● Upon Sandi’s departure in 2018 (seven months before the 2019 presidential election), Gerindra agreed that PKS would be given the right to appoint a candidate to fill the capital’s number two seat. At that time, Gerindra was desperate to build a political coalition to support Prabowo’s bid for the presidency in the 2019 election, particularly as its coalition remained weak compared to Widodo’s government coalition. On the other hand, PKS, who remained disappointed with Gerindra’s decision not to pick a PKS member as their vice president candidate, saw the deputy governor’s seat as a type of concession. At least they would get something for supporting Gerindra in 2019.

● Prabowo-Sandi, ultimately lost the 2019 election by a wide margin and Gerindra welcomed offers to join the government coalition to end its 10-year role as opposition in parliament and began to rekindle its old relationship with PDIP. Gerindra joined the government coalition in October 2019 with Prabowo appointed as Minister of Defence and Gerindra deputy chairman, Edhy Prabowo, as Minister of Maritime Affairs. Both Gerindra and PKS are eyeing the next presidential election in 2024, particularly as Widodo enters into his second and final term as president and both parties are exploring all options and moving to establish new strategic alliances with parties.

● At the national level, Gerindra now is looking to move on from its close relationship with PKS as the national political landscape has changed since the presidential election last year.

● Although Governor Anies has been running the city on his own without a deputy for almost two years, he seems to enjoy the absence of political pressure that a politically appointed deputy might bring. Anies has had little to say about the lack of having a deputy for such a long period and neither PKS or Gerindra have made much of an effort to consult Anies on who might be the best fit to help run Jakarta. Although Anies is neither an official member of PKS or Gerindra, he retains a close affiliation with senior PKS members. That relationship works well as PKS is a much smaller party and possesses less political pressure that could be applied to Anies.

● In early February this year, both Gerindra and PKS submitted their candidate names to the Jakarta City Council to be reviewed and ultimately one will be chosen as deputy governor. Gerindra’s candidate is Ahmad Riza Patria, a lawmaker in parliament while PKS’s candidate is Nurmansyah Lubis, a former Jakarta DPRD member and a 20-year PKS member. Both parties will lobby the ten factions in the council in an effort to have their candidate chosen, but Gerindra will use its new leverage as member of the government coalition and its success with strengthening its relationship with PDIP to win the seat. The Jakarta DPRD has 106 seats and Gerindra has the potential to obtain the support of more than two dozen seats than PKS if their lobbying efforts fall into place.

● Both Gerindra and PKS have focused their efforts on which candidate might best serve the party rather than which might serve the people of Jakarta. Neither candidate has been asked how they plan on tackling the multitude of issues plaguing the capital and were not required to go through any public fit and proper tests nor was the public asked for input (although legally not required to do so).

● A new deputy governor is expected to be chosen by the DPRD early this year. Anies’ term as governor will end in October 2022.

● Look for Gerindra to shift their efforts to build a stronger relationship with PDIP and develop political strategies going forward as we move closer to the local elections in nine provinces (270 elective areas) held this September. These elections will be held in various apart of the country for governors, regents and mayors whose terms are set to expire in 2021 (excluding Jakarta). The two parties could also cooperate on the appointment of Jakarta interim governor in 2022 (Read my article here) which falls two years before the presidential election in 2024.

Shawn Corrigan is the host and producer of Indonesia In-depth, Indonesia’s leading business, political and culture podcast based in Jakarta. He has spent more than a decade in Indonesia working as a political risk consultant and established Indonesia In-depth in 2017. He speaks English and Indonesian. In addition to the podcast, Indonesia In-depth provides professionals with content services, from podcasts, audio documentaries to social media content.

Episode Description:
Podcast hosts: Shawn & Tanita

Email:[e-mail]

Twitter: @IndoIndepth

Instagram: @indonesiaindepth

LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/in/shawn-corrigan/

We are also available on Spotify, iTunes, Soundcloud, Google Music and other podcast players!

Music are licensed.