Phil Suttle on Coming High Inflation, Goods Recessions and Fed in Play

Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Phil is one of my favourite global economists. Currently, he runs his own economic research outfit. Before that he worked at JPMorgan, the Fed, World Bank, Barclays and Tudor. In the podcast, we talk about:

1. COVID has led to the biggest change to inflation regime since early 1970s.
2. Private sector to acquire real assets rather than financial assets.
3. High inflation likely to persist over 2022 and 2023.
4. Fed will be in play sooner than expected.
5. Goods sector could see ‘recession’ in 2021 on supply constraints.
6. Summer risks around US fiscal and debt ceiling.
7. EM local markets appear mispriced.
8. Climate change policies lead to more investment and higher prices.
9. UK in secular decline.
10. Book that has recently engaged Phil Suttle: John Maynard Keynes: 1883-1946: Economist, Philosopher, Statesman (Skidelsky).