Michael Oliver: The Most Important Chart in Markets Is Breaking Right Now

McAlvany Weekly Commentary

https://youtu.be/9T3P9o3XHIA This week on the McAlvany Weekly Commentary, David McAlvany interviews technical analyst Michael Oliver, founder of Momentum Structural Analysis (MSA), about what he describes as the most important chart in global markets today: the long-term gold vs. S&P 500 spread. According to Oliver, this relationship has now broken decisively, signaling a major structural shift that could reshape asset allocation for years to come. For more than four decades, Michael Oliver has applied his proprietary momentum-based methodology to stocks, commodities, bonds, currencies, and major market spreads. His firm, Momentum Structural Analysis, provides detailed long-term momentum research to institutions, fund managers, and private investors seeking to understand major market turns before they become obvious through traditional price charting. In this conversation, he explains why the gold/S&P 500 breakout matters, why silver may be preparing for a much larger move, and what his momentum models are signaling across multiple asset classes. Download Michael Oliver’s November 16 MSA Sample Report A full sample of Michael’s recent research is available here: MSA Sample Report – November 16, 2025 (PDF) This report includes long-term momentum charts across equities, commodities, monetary metals, and fixed income, along with commentary explaining why MSA focuses on momentum structures rather than conventional price action. Explore Momentum Structural Analysis Listeners who want to learn more about Michael Oliver’s work should visit the MSA website: Momentum Structural Analysis – Official Websitehttps://www.olivermsa.com/ Additional free sample reports are available directly through MSA here: Request Free Sample Reports from MSAhttps://www.olivermsa.com/contactsample-reports.html On the MSA site, readers will find: Background on Michael’s methodology Recent sample analysis Details on the asset classes he covers Contact information to reach him directly At the end of the interview, Michael encourages interested listeners to email him through his website with questions or to request additional sample reports. His contact details are available on the MSA contact page. About This Episode In this week’s discussion, topics include: Why momentum often leads price at major inflection points The gold/S&P 500 spread and what its breakout implies for equities and hard assets Silver’s structural positioning and long-term potential The Bloomberg Commodity Index and signs of a broader commodity shift Momentum deterioration in long-term Treasuries and potential implications for government debt Bitcoin’s structural breakdown and its impact on broader risk assets The case for a multi-year shift toward monetary metals and tangible assets This interview offers a clear, momentum-driven framework for understanding current market dynamics and longer-term transitions. * * * Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. David, before we get to our guest, Michael Oliver, I'd like to just express to our clients that we normally talk about fundamentals. There are really, in the markets, two types of traders, I would say, or analysts: fundamental analysts and technical. But the next couple of weeks, you'd like to include the technicals because oftentimes that's where you're making your decisions. David: Well, certainly, when we're managing portfolios, both forms of analysis are critical to us. So MSA has been part of our analysis for years. And again, we blend both the fundamental and technical analysis. Of course, there's multiple schools of thought within technical analysis, so having a broad picture and various inputs gives a healthy perspective, point and counterpoint. It's almost building in the devil's advocacy into conversations in-house. And I would highly recommend folks who are intrigued by this to look at MSA as a service, as a subscription, and consider it as a regular read. It'll bring a unique insight into the markets. Kevin: Yes, and if you'd like to see the material that we're talking about directly, go to mcalvany.com/commentary or go to our YouTube channel. * * * David: Well, in 18 years of doing this podcast, we've had a lot of different guests on. We've got central bankers and academics, industry experts, professional bond traders, chief economists at Wall Street firms, even a few market technicians. Michael, we've read your materials at MSA for many years, but have been remiss in not having you as a guest. We're going to do two weeks back to back with technical analysts that bring a unique set of insights using different but I think complementary models. Next week, we'll look at Elliott Wave. This week, we want to look under the hood at MSA. MSA stands for Momentum Structural Analysis. We'll look at your models and the implications of your analysis for a host of asset classes. So thank you for joining us. Let's follow up in 2026 and see how things are progressing. Michael: Okay, that'd be great. David: Well, I want to cover a lot of ground today, ambitious perhaps, but I'd like to cover currencies, bonds, equities, commodities—specifically gold and silver. I think we're at inflection points in many of these markets, and seeing them as a mosaic may be helpful. Can you start with exploring the importance of momentum, and point to the differentiating factors in your style of analysis? I mean, we're talking about structural messages, intersection. Michael: Sure. Everybody looks at price charts. They draw lines. They look for "structures," meaning like a three-point uptrend line or a floor that's been used repeatedly by a stock or an index, et cetera. And when those break, they think, "Okay, that's actionable." We apply the same concepts to momentum with some sophistication. We use parallel channel analysis and so forth, but why don't we focus on price? And the reason is that, invariably, 99% of the time—maybe I'm exaggerating a bit, but probably not—when a market makes a top or bottom, it is most clear on momentum well before price smacks you in the face. Okay? And usually, like a stock market bear, you're 20%, 30% off the high before the public even wakes up to the reality that it isn't just a correction. And momentum will have spoken first. This is true with gold, commodities, stock market. It doesn't matter which market we apply it [to]. Another reason for it is— Let me try to explain this a bit. When we measure things in everyday reality, people say, "Oh, my stock is up." Okay, well, that's a measure by the dollar—the dollar as a yardstick. And I don't mean dollar versus the euro or dollar versus the yen. I'm talking about dollar is real buying power. And we know that every decade, if you look at an M2 chart and you go from January of '60 to January '70, January '70 to January '80, and measure how much it's grown, you'll find it's like 80 to 90% every decade, quantity of money. So that means prices that have gone up that much really aren't making money. All you're doing is keeping up with the decay in the piece of paper. So how do you divorce yourself from that in your analysis? Because your analysis using price charts—meaning a piece of plastic currency, yen, euro, whatever you're using—is changing all the time. You don't factor that in. And so you bought a stock at 10 bucks and it's at 20. You're not really making money over a decade. You break even. What we try to do to take a partial step away from using a fiat currency as your yardstick is to run momentum studies of the market itself. Now, what do I mean? Everybody plots moving averages on price charts, long-term averages, short-term, all this stuff. And what they think when it crosses over 100, it's important. It often isn't. But what we do is we oscillate price. Let's say, what's this month's high in the S&P, low, and close this month on a monthly bar? How is that in relation to, let's say, a three-quarter moving average? Is it above it or below it? The zero line on the oscillator being the three-quarter moving average. So you're either above it or you're below it. You create an oscillator where you're oscillating around a dynamic that is moving, and the movement of that moving average—up in a strong market or down in a weak market—is partly determined, yes, by the decay in the money unit. It affects that average. But mostly it's caused by the dynamics of the market itself. So you've partly filtered out the use of simply using a stupid yardstick that is plastic. Okay? That's the intellectual explanation of why we use momentum as opposed to obviousness or price. Okay. Enough said. David: Well, so the most important chart of all, and this is how you've described it a couple of months now. Gold versus the S&P 500. Great place to start. This will launch our conversation on equities and precious metals. Our listeners will be familiar with the Dow/gold ratio. You choose the S&P. What does this chart imply, and what signal are you waiting for? Michael: Okay. Well, when we measure the gold, we use the front month futures active contract. Right now, that would be December gold. We take it's monthly close, we divide it into the price of the S&P 500 and express that result as a percent. Right now, if you look at Dec. gold and measured against the S&P, it's about 62% price of gold versus S&P. So you plot that on the oscillator—on the spread chart, excuse me. And spread chart merely measures price versus price. So it's not momentum, but it's a different way of looking at action between two markets. So what we're looking at is the difference between a monetary metal, the MOMA metal, and paper asset category that is arguably in a bubble like we've never seen in the 100 years in the US stock market. Since 2009,