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תוכן מסופק על ידי Russ Andrews. כל תוכן הפודקאסטים כולל פרקים, גרפיקה ותיאורי פודקאסטים מועלים ומסופקים ישירות על ידי Russ Andrews או שותף פלטפורמת הפודקאסט שלו. אם אתה מאמין שמישהו משתמש ביצירה שלך המוגנת בזכויות יוצרים ללא רשותך, אתה יכול לעקוב אחר התהליך המתואר כאן https://he.player.fm/legal.
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#27 Israeli COVID facts, European Climate Lessons, Andy Kessler

36:14
 
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סדרה בארכיון ("עדכון לא פעיל" status)

When? This feed was archived on October 23, 2023 01:21 (5M ago). Last successful fetch was on April 07, 2022 23:40 (2y ago)

Why? עדכון לא פעיל status. השרתים שלנו לא הצליחו לאחזר פודקאסט חוקי לזמן ממושך.

What now? You might be able to find a more up-to-date version using the search function. This series will no longer be checked for updates. If you believe this to be in error, please check if the publisher's feed link below is valid and contact support to request the feed be restored or if you have any other concerns about this.

Manage episode 302366149 series 2821002
תוכן מסופק על ידי Russ Andrews. כל תוכן הפודקאסטים כולל פרקים, גרפיקה ותיאורי פודקאסטים מועלים ומסופקים ישירות על ידי Russ Andrews או שותף פלטפורמת הפודקאסט שלו. אם אתה מאמין שמישהו משתמש ביצירה שלך המוגנת בזכויות יוצרים ללא רשותך, אתה יכול לעקוב אחר התהליך המתואר כאן https://he.player.fm/legal.

Podcast 27 Israeli COVID facts, European Climate Lessons,

Andy Kessler

DISCLAIMER: This broadcast is intended for educational

purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or

sell any security or insurance product. All information provided here is for

educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax

advice, an offer to buy or sell any security or insurance product; or an

endorsement of any third party or such third party's views. All examples

are hypothetical and for illustrative purposes only. Please contact us

for an assessment of your personal financial circumstances and to obtain

personal investment advice.

COVID UPDATE:

· An Israeli study showed that a booster resulted in a 10-fold

reduction in severe Covid illness in people over 60.

· On Aug. 25, Israel published the most powerful and scientifically

rigorous study on the subject of natural immunity to date. In a sample of more

than 700,000 people, natural immunity was 27 times more effective than

vaccinated immunity in preventing symptomatic infections. Which begs the

question; why does the Biden Administration ignore natural immunity if it is 27

x more effective than any vaccine, but rather believes you should lose your job

if you have convalescent antibodies and refuse to get a vaccine?

· Israeli researchers again found that one dose of the Pfizer

vaccine, instead of the normal two, was 100% effective in children ages 12 to

15. Such a finding could have significant implications for achieving broad

immunity in adolescents while reducing the risk of heart complications, which

have been clustered around the second dose.

· 214 myn Pfizer doses + 147 myn Moderna doses = 361 myn doses.

· A shot for a 75-to-84 year-old is 22,000% more likely to save a

life than a shot for an 18-to-29. For the youngest cohort, the FDA has yet to

resolve whether the very slight benefits of vaccination outweigh the very

slight risks.

· Vaccines reduce the death rate from 0.4% to 0.04%.

Climate and Ore

Total fuel consumption

of U.S. airlines is approximately 19 billion gallons annually.

Total fuel consumption

for mining Ore for construction of electric car batteries is approximately 21

billion gallons annually.

The 21 billion gallons

of fuel burned can only produce enough Ore to build 250,000 electric car

batteries.

The lifespan of an

electric battery is 10 years and is not renewable. By 2050 these batteries will

fill landfills with 50 million pounds of waste that does not break down.

I wonder if people

would still believe in electric power cars, vehicles or equipment if they knew

how massive the carbon emissions footprint really was?

Europe’s Climate Lesson for America:

Energy prices are soaring in Europe, and the effects are rippling

across the Atlantic. Blame anti-carbon policies of the kind that the Biden

Administration wants to impose in the U.S.

Electricity prices in the U.K. this week jumped to a record £354

($490) per megawatt hour, a 700% increase from the 2010 to 2020 average.

Germany’s electricity benchmark has doubled this year. Last month’s 12.3%

increase was the largest since 1974 and contributed to the highest inflation

reading since 1993. Other economies are experiencing similar spikes.

Europe’s anti-carbon policies have created a fossil-fuel shortage.

Governments have heavily subsidized renewables like wind and solar and shut

down coal plants to meet their commitments under the Paris climate accord. But

wind power this summer has flagged, so countries are scrambling to import more

fossil fuels to power their grids.

European natural-gas spot prices have increased five-fold in the

last year. Some energy providers are burning cheaper coal, but its prices have

tripled. Rising fossil-fuel consumption has caused demand and prices for carbon

permits under the Continent’s cap-and-trade scheme to surge, which has pushed

electricity prices even higher.

Russia has exploited the chaos by slowing gas deliveries,

ostensibly to increase pressure on Germany to finish the Nord Stream 2 pipeline

certification. Which…is precisely the reason to NOT finish the Nord Stream 2

Pipeline.

Vladimir Putin last week took a swipe at the, quote, “smart alecs”

in the European Commission for “market-based” pricing that increased

competition in gas, including from U.S. liquefied natural gas imports.

Andy Kessler: The Market Fails A Breathalyzer:

I am about to read from a column in Monday’s WSJ which mentions a

number of publicly traded companies. This is NOT a recommendation to buy

or sell any of them:

Joby Aviation, which plans to begin an electric air taxi service

in 2024, is worth more than Lufthansa, EasyJet or JetBlue. Does that seem

right? In this market, why not? Heck, earlier this year, Tesla was worth more

than the next nine car manufacturers combined, though now only the next six.

Beyond Meat, made with pea protein, is worth more than the entire market for

peas eaten globally—like the bumper sticker says: Imagine whirled peas. Do

fundamentals even matter?

Used-car sales platform Carvana is worth more than Volvo, Honda,

Ford or Hyundai. Airbnb is worth more than Marriott and Hilton combined.

Crypto-exchange Coinbase is worth more than the Nasdaq. We live at the

intersection of innovation and disruption, but when companies are worth more

than any possible reality, watch out.

How about those meme stocks still getting hyped on Reddit’s

WallStreetBets? Those who bid GameStop shares into the stratosphere waved at

Virgin Galactic Holdings as they soared by. A year ago, the stock was $6 and it

is now $190—some dupes paid $483, game over. Short sellers Melvin Capital,

Point 72 and D1 Capital focused on fundamentals and got their assets handed to

them. Shorts lost more than $9 billion between January and June.

Redditeers may want to put in a call to hedge-fund manager Eddie

Lampert, who bought Kmart and merged it with Sears in 2005, as a highly touted

“integrated retail” play, combining stores and online sales, eerily similar to

the argument for investing in GameStop today. The stock peaked at $135 in 2007.

It is now at $0.30 as the company languishes in bankruptcy. A 1970s Sears

Johnny Miller leisure suit is worth more.

AMC Entertainment’s stock was scraping $2 at the end of 2020. It

is now $50 thanks in part to Robinhood speculators, and the company has smartly

raised cash. But what about fundamentals? Theaters are still sparse, and Disney

and others are willingly putting blockbusters directly onto their streaming

services—ask Scarlett Johansson about Black Widow’s ticket sales. Theaters are

the new roller rinks.

In June, an Italian artist auctioned an invisible statue for

$18,000—in reality it was an empty box the artist claimed was a “space full of

energy.” Yeah, maybe fundamentals are a quaint relic of a bygone era.

Former Fed Chairman William McChesney Martin once explained that

the Fed’s job was “to take away the punch bowl just as the party gets going.”

From the looks of it, the entire market would blow about a 0.35 (as in Dow

35000) on a breathalyzer test.

So no, fundamentals don’t matter—well, until they do. In 1989

Tokyo real estate sold for as much as $139,000 a square foot—350 times the

value in Manhattan. At that price, Tokyo’s Imperial Palace was worth more than

all the real estate in California. Not anymore after Japan’s string of 4 lost

decades.

Yahoo was once worth $125 billion and AOL $200 billion during the

dot-com bubble. Both are worth 99% less today. Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently

tweeted, “I thought 1999 was peak insanity, but 2021 is 1000% more insane!”

Remember, when the selling starts, fear of missing out turns into fear of

losing everything as speculators jump like rats off a sinking ship.

The point is a simple one folks; be careful out there. A

waitress friend of ours at one of our favorite restaurants was so excited to

tell me last week that she just bought Moderna at $445/sh. Moderna (which

many of our clients and family own) is up more that 2000% from the low 20’s

last spring.

I highly suggest you find and work with a financial adviser who is

experienced, and who has seen this movie before.

  continue reading

37 פרקים

Artwork
iconשתפו
 

סדרה בארכיון ("עדכון לא פעיל" status)

When? This feed was archived on October 23, 2023 01:21 (5M ago). Last successful fetch was on April 07, 2022 23:40 (2y ago)

Why? עדכון לא פעיל status. השרתים שלנו לא הצליחו לאחזר פודקאסט חוקי לזמן ממושך.

What now? You might be able to find a more up-to-date version using the search function. This series will no longer be checked for updates. If you believe this to be in error, please check if the publisher's feed link below is valid and contact support to request the feed be restored or if you have any other concerns about this.

Manage episode 302366149 series 2821002
תוכן מסופק על ידי Russ Andrews. כל תוכן הפודקאסטים כולל פרקים, גרפיקה ותיאורי פודקאסטים מועלים ומסופקים ישירות על ידי Russ Andrews או שותף פלטפורמת הפודקאסט שלו. אם אתה מאמין שמישהו משתמש ביצירה שלך המוגנת בזכויות יוצרים ללא רשותך, אתה יכול לעקוב אחר התהליך המתואר כאן https://he.player.fm/legal.

Podcast 27 Israeli COVID facts, European Climate Lessons,

Andy Kessler

DISCLAIMER: This broadcast is intended for educational

purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or

sell any security or insurance product. All information provided here is for

educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax

advice, an offer to buy or sell any security or insurance product; or an

endorsement of any third party or such third party's views. All examples

are hypothetical and for illustrative purposes only. Please contact us

for an assessment of your personal financial circumstances and to obtain

personal investment advice.

COVID UPDATE:

· An Israeli study showed that a booster resulted in a 10-fold

reduction in severe Covid illness in people over 60.

· On Aug. 25, Israel published the most powerful and scientifically

rigorous study on the subject of natural immunity to date. In a sample of more

than 700,000 people, natural immunity was 27 times more effective than

vaccinated immunity in preventing symptomatic infections. Which begs the

question; why does the Biden Administration ignore natural immunity if it is 27

x more effective than any vaccine, but rather believes you should lose your job

if you have convalescent antibodies and refuse to get a vaccine?

· Israeli researchers again found that one dose of the Pfizer

vaccine, instead of the normal two, was 100% effective in children ages 12 to

15. Such a finding could have significant implications for achieving broad

immunity in adolescents while reducing the risk of heart complications, which

have been clustered around the second dose.

· 214 myn Pfizer doses + 147 myn Moderna doses = 361 myn doses.

· A shot for a 75-to-84 year-old is 22,000% more likely to save a

life than a shot for an 18-to-29. For the youngest cohort, the FDA has yet to

resolve whether the very slight benefits of vaccination outweigh the very

slight risks.

· Vaccines reduce the death rate from 0.4% to 0.04%.

Climate and Ore

Total fuel consumption

of U.S. airlines is approximately 19 billion gallons annually.

Total fuel consumption

for mining Ore for construction of electric car batteries is approximately 21

billion gallons annually.

The 21 billion gallons

of fuel burned can only produce enough Ore to build 250,000 electric car

batteries.

The lifespan of an

electric battery is 10 years and is not renewable. By 2050 these batteries will

fill landfills with 50 million pounds of waste that does not break down.

I wonder if people

would still believe in electric power cars, vehicles or equipment if they knew

how massive the carbon emissions footprint really was?

Europe’s Climate Lesson for America:

Energy prices are soaring in Europe, and the effects are rippling

across the Atlantic. Blame anti-carbon policies of the kind that the Biden

Administration wants to impose in the U.S.

Electricity prices in the U.K. this week jumped to a record £354

($490) per megawatt hour, a 700% increase from the 2010 to 2020 average.

Germany’s electricity benchmark has doubled this year. Last month’s 12.3%

increase was the largest since 1974 and contributed to the highest inflation

reading since 1993. Other economies are experiencing similar spikes.

Europe’s anti-carbon policies have created a fossil-fuel shortage.

Governments have heavily subsidized renewables like wind and solar and shut

down coal plants to meet their commitments under the Paris climate accord. But

wind power this summer has flagged, so countries are scrambling to import more

fossil fuels to power their grids.

European natural-gas spot prices have increased five-fold in the

last year. Some energy providers are burning cheaper coal, but its prices have

tripled. Rising fossil-fuel consumption has caused demand and prices for carbon

permits under the Continent’s cap-and-trade scheme to surge, which has pushed

electricity prices even higher.

Russia has exploited the chaos by slowing gas deliveries,

ostensibly to increase pressure on Germany to finish the Nord Stream 2 pipeline

certification. Which…is precisely the reason to NOT finish the Nord Stream 2

Pipeline.

Vladimir Putin last week took a swipe at the, quote, “smart alecs”

in the European Commission for “market-based” pricing that increased

competition in gas, including from U.S. liquefied natural gas imports.

Andy Kessler: The Market Fails A Breathalyzer:

I am about to read from a column in Monday’s WSJ which mentions a

number of publicly traded companies. This is NOT a recommendation to buy

or sell any of them:

Joby Aviation, which plans to begin an electric air taxi service

in 2024, is worth more than Lufthansa, EasyJet or JetBlue. Does that seem

right? In this market, why not? Heck, earlier this year, Tesla was worth more

than the next nine car manufacturers combined, though now only the next six.

Beyond Meat, made with pea protein, is worth more than the entire market for

peas eaten globally—like the bumper sticker says: Imagine whirled peas. Do

fundamentals even matter?

Used-car sales platform Carvana is worth more than Volvo, Honda,

Ford or Hyundai. Airbnb is worth more than Marriott and Hilton combined.

Crypto-exchange Coinbase is worth more than the Nasdaq. We live at the

intersection of innovation and disruption, but when companies are worth more

than any possible reality, watch out.

How about those meme stocks still getting hyped on Reddit’s

WallStreetBets? Those who bid GameStop shares into the stratosphere waved at

Virgin Galactic Holdings as they soared by. A year ago, the stock was $6 and it

is now $190—some dupes paid $483, game over. Short sellers Melvin Capital,

Point 72 and D1 Capital focused on fundamentals and got their assets handed to

them. Shorts lost more than $9 billion between January and June.

Redditeers may want to put in a call to hedge-fund manager Eddie

Lampert, who bought Kmart and merged it with Sears in 2005, as a highly touted

“integrated retail” play, combining stores and online sales, eerily similar to

the argument for investing in GameStop today. The stock peaked at $135 in 2007.

It is now at $0.30 as the company languishes in bankruptcy. A 1970s Sears

Johnny Miller leisure suit is worth more.

AMC Entertainment’s stock was scraping $2 at the end of 2020. It

is now $50 thanks in part to Robinhood speculators, and the company has smartly

raised cash. But what about fundamentals? Theaters are still sparse, and Disney

and others are willingly putting blockbusters directly onto their streaming

services—ask Scarlett Johansson about Black Widow’s ticket sales. Theaters are

the new roller rinks.

In June, an Italian artist auctioned an invisible statue for

$18,000—in reality it was an empty box the artist claimed was a “space full of

energy.” Yeah, maybe fundamentals are a quaint relic of a bygone era.

Former Fed Chairman William McChesney Martin once explained that

the Fed’s job was “to take away the punch bowl just as the party gets going.”

From the looks of it, the entire market would blow about a 0.35 (as in Dow

35000) on a breathalyzer test.

So no, fundamentals don’t matter—well, until they do. In 1989

Tokyo real estate sold for as much as $139,000 a square foot—350 times the

value in Manhattan. At that price, Tokyo’s Imperial Palace was worth more than

all the real estate in California. Not anymore after Japan’s string of 4 lost

decades.

Yahoo was once worth $125 billion and AOL $200 billion during the

dot-com bubble. Both are worth 99% less today. Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently

tweeted, “I thought 1999 was peak insanity, but 2021 is 1000% more insane!”

Remember, when the selling starts, fear of missing out turns into fear of

losing everything as speculators jump like rats off a sinking ship.

The point is a simple one folks; be careful out there. A

waitress friend of ours at one of our favorite restaurants was so excited to

tell me last week that she just bought Moderna at $445/sh. Moderna (which

many of our clients and family own) is up more that 2000% from the low 20’s

last spring.

I highly suggest you find and work with a financial adviser who is

experienced, and who has seen this movie before.

  continue reading

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