Inside the Review that Led to Kalshi's Rejection at the CFTC

Star Spangled Gamblers

After another review with a 30-day public comment period, the CFTC rejected Kalshi's proposal to offer election contracts.

Mick Bransfield and Pratik Chougule do a deep dive into the outpouring of public comments that led to the CFTC's decision.

0:00: Introduction begins

2:14: Kalshi's incentives and how they shape its strategy toward political betting regulation 3:46: Kalshi's policy on transparency 5:27: Kalshi's diverging incentives from the political betting community 7:42: How Pratik's assumptions on political betting regulation differ from those of Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour 13:03: Interview with Mick begins 15:18: Background on the latest 30-day comment period 16:40: Why the CFTC received a flood of comments 17:46: Were the anti-Kalshi comments AI-generated? 18:10: Public Citizen 20:57: Better Markets 21:55: Letter from Representatives John Sarbanes and Jamie Raskin 22:55: Center for American Progress 25:09: Are prediction markets becoming a partisan football? 31:11: Errors and poor analysis in the anti-Kalshi letters 33:41: Kalshi's response 46:40: Why Pratik lost confidence in Kalshi's regulatory approach Links: Mick Bransfield's website: https://mickbransfield.com/markets/ Coalition for Political Forecasting: http://coalitionforpoliticalforecasting.org/ Coalition for Political Forecasting comment to CFTC: http://coalitionforpoliticalforecasting.org/coalition-for-political-forecasting-response-to-cftcs-request-for-public-comments-on-questions-related-to-kalshis-self-certified-congressional-control-contracts/