#35: 29 July 1914 I - Hissing Cousins

When Diplomacy Fails Podcast

The dawn of a new day did not bring any new peacemaking opportunities. In their own way, Austria, Germany and Russia were immovable in their main goal - they would not back down, even if it cost them everything.

That such a roadblock sat in the way of peace did not prevent Kaiser Wilhelm and Tsar Nicholas from engaging in their famed, eleventh hour telegram exchange. The Nicky-Willy telegrams have often been highlighted as an example of the inherent pacifism of these conservative monarchs, but what hope did this initiative really have?

One emerging issue was the increased tensions between Austria and Germany. Despite urging them to do so for several days, Vienna had not provided its ally with any plans for its post-war treatment of Serbia. Frustrated with Austrian intransigence and the refusal to grant concessions to Italy, the German Chancellor pursued a short-lived but incredibly fascinating mission - to drive it home to Austria that if she would not clarify her aims or help herself, Germany was not willing to do the work for her.

This potential fracture in the Austro-German camp would only be healed if Russia acted pre-emptively, and engaged in mobilisation. But then again, the Russians could ask, if Germany had not been able to stop Austria to this point, was there any hope she could stop her now? If German influence in Vienna had declined, German mediation may be of little use. And if Germany was still influential, why had she allowed matters to get this far, if she had not agreed with what Austria was doing?

It was lose lose for Berlin, and not even the spectacle of the two cousins hissing at each other through barely veiled good wishes could mask the fact that matters had gone very far indeed from the heady days of early July. Russia was mobilising, and though she had not prepared her entire army, she was clearly unwilling to let Austria away with it. Her motives for doing so, and the excuses made to justify such a provocative step, are worth examining, because they get to the root of the July Crisis quandary. Did these contemporaries know what they were doing, or were they blindly following the suggested script off the edge of the abyss?

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