The CEO’s Address with Greg Newman | Analytical Consensus in the Oil Market

World of Oil Derivatives

Senior Oil Derivatives Trader, James Anderson joins Group CEO Greg Newman to discuss the oil market’s significant reset, with crude futures prices dropping by approximately $10/bbl over the past few weeks.

Greg and James debate the collective sentiment within the oil industry, noting how many traders follow the herd, seeking comfort in the analyses of research houses and banks. This creates a battle for narrative dominance—who will be the market's lead forecaster?

The recent sell-off raises important questions: how much of it was driven by macroeconomic factors versus a shifting outlook within the industry?

The year started with bullish sentiment toward Q3, with summer flat prices and gasoline being key trades. However, forecasts have since shifted, with weakening demand now projected for 2025. This divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks has been accompanied by weakness in the Cal 25 spreads, raising questions about the market's consensus view for next year.