After April brought showers to the Stock Market, sliding more than 4%, the first week of May brought flowers with Markets rallying nearly 2% to start the month. Volatility has certainly picked up and I'll get into the why. I can't recall a busier week of market-moving key economic reports, Central Bank news-driven flow, fiscal announcements, and ea…

Heightened volatility remains within the Market. It's been that way all April. This week brought upside movement as the S&P put an end to its weekly losing streak. Choppy price action is to be expected. It's a volatile world in which we live...

Market turbulence is back. It returned with a vengeance this week. I last wrote on March 31st these words: "The Market was running pretty hot heading into Spring. We could see a cooling off period before another run higher. It's not a stretch to say volatility is likely to pick up as we head towards Summer. A lot of good stuff has been priced in fr…

That sweet tooth is getting increasingly more expensive to satisfy. The culprit this time: Chocolate. Cocoa prices have tripled since last year due to a bean disease in West Africa. It's not looking like prices will come down anytime soon. Cocoa supplies are down drastically. There’s no quick nor easy fix. Production has been curbed by severe weath…

It's that time of year again: The NCAA tournament. The big dance in college basketball. Practice is over. Proper preparation is key. It's the time for performance. Anything can happen. Win or go home. Titans tend to reign. But Cinderella stories are also born. It's an event like no other. It's March Madness...…

I was in Arizona this week for strategy sessions with Schwab. There were over 150 firms represented from across the country congregating together to discuss industry issues and opportunities. The focus was both on today and, even more so, tomorrow. The future is clearly now....

Many of you know that I wrote my thesis at Cal on Mark Twain and the Western Frontier. It was out west where Samuel Clemens experienced the expansion of the then 9-decade-old nation. Clemens was born on the banks of the Mississippi. He grew up and grew wise in his adventures out west. His childhood dream was to be a riverboat pilot. He fled Mississ…

Amazon entered the Dow this week. It's another major milestone for the innovative American company. It's a prestigious achievement; A badge of honor in US Stock Market history. There are only 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average at any given time. They do change periodically. Amazon, a longtime NASDAQ member, entered the S&P 500 in 2005...…

Nvidia saved the rally. The most talked about stock in the world reported earnings Wednesday. As I wrote last week, Nvidia and AI have become more important than the Fed; At least to the Market. Expectations were sky high. Nvidia delivered, and then some. It was another blowout quarter for the company that's powering AI. Nvidia had already grown re…

Retail sales declined 0.8% in January. That was much worse than the 0.1% decline expected. It was a notable slide from December's 0.4% monthly increase. After a strong Holiday spending season, a slowdown in January is pretty customary. This one was obviously bigger. Building materials and supplies saw the biggest decline, down 4.1% in January. Furn…

It's that time of year. Americans from coast-to-coast will be glued to televisions. Food and beverage consumption will skyrocket. It's Super Bowl Sunday. Over the last 57 years, audiences and Dollars spent have increased in size for this special Sunday. This one, Super Bowl 58, is going to be a Super Bowl like no other. First of all, it's in Las Ve…

This was another one of those eventful weeks. The Market absorbed so many news items and priced them in on the fly, as it does. The Market is a discounting mechanism. It anticipates outcomes and instantly prices them in. As probabilities move, the Market adjusts. It has the wisdom of crowds. There was a lot of movement this week. Here's another rap…

The most widely anticipated recession never showed up in 2023. Not only that, the US Economy accelerated in the Summer and kept up a solid pace into year-end. The unemployment rate remains near 50-year lows. That has supported the American people's grand spending habits.

The results are in: Americans opened their wallets over the Holidays. Retail sales rose 5.6% in December compared to a year ago. Higher prices contributed to the increase, but not all of it. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up 3.4% in December. That was a sharp decline from the inflationary pressures in 2022. Inflation is going back in the right …

Las Vegas was abuzz this week and it had nothing to do with football. The Raiders season is done and the Super Bowl will be held there for the first time in February. (Side note, the Raiders belong in Oakland). This week was all about tech toys and innovative gadgets as the annual Consumer Electronics Show, now referred to simply as "CES," took ove…

What an eventful year. 2023 sure has been a banner year for investors. It definitely didn't start out that way. Remember the banking crisis and the takedowns of Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic in the Spring? That seems like forever ago.

'Twas the night before Christmas From coast to coast, Not a creature was stirring Not even a cable news host The stockings were hung By the chimney with care With hopes that this rally Still will be there Artificial Intelligence is a game-changer It's affectionately known as "AI" The Magnificent 7 are the early winners Their stocks soared to the sk…

The Federal Reserve's rate-hiking cycle has come to an end. At least that's the message that was received Wednesday. The Market exploded with enthusiasm as the year-end rally continued. The magic words were rate cuts in 2024. This was a major pivot by the Fed.על ידי Mike Frazier

Energy prices keep slipping. It's a big deal in the continuing fight on inflation. The price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil has declined 22% in the fourth quarter. It's down 7 consecutive weeks, undercutting $70 a barrel at one point, the lowest since July. It sure looks like prices are going to stay low for a while. The 6-month time s…

The American Consumer keeps proving, time and again, it has some serious resiliency. That was on display last weekend as people from coast-to-coast were scooping up deals in their shopping baskets as the Holiday season commenced. Many continue to purchase on the go or from their couch. Online sales now account for over 15% of retail today. That num…

I couldn't focus on just one topic this week. There were so many events that matter taking place. The Bay Area drew the most attention. It wasn't due to the Niners' resurgence, although that in and of itself is no small development. Fast and furious activity is a constant these days, some scale large, others small. But things are so intertwined. Wi…

There will be a major meeting in the Bay Area next week. The World will be watching. Presidents Biden and Xi will sit down, face to face, in a significant engagement for the top economic powers. It will be the first and only in-person meeting for these two leaders this year. They last met at the G20 Summit in Bali in November, a year ago. The perce…

Stocks soared to start November, with the best weekly gains of the year. Of course it came as October ended with 3 consecutive monthly declines. That had not happened since 2020. That was deep in the heat of Covid. We know all too well how price action can shake things out.

The American people keep spending. That's an important takeaway from a series of data points reported this week. Despite chronic high prices and spiking interest rates, consumer spending hasn't seen much of a dent; At least not yet. Of course this matters as the Consumer accounts for 70% of America's Economy. In Q3, spending was still strong.…

I have been dreading writing this piece all week. What happened, what is happening and what will further happen in the future makes me both sad and furious as a fellow human being on Planet Earth. Hate and anger is everywhere. The violence is simply horrific.

The United States Federal Government is set to shutdown at midnight Sunday. This, unless there is an 11th-hour continuing resolution agreed to by Congress, which looks doubtful at best. I outlined some of the implications of a shutdown last week. The Market has been taking it pretty much in stride all along. In fact, the Market has absorbed multipl…

Price action picked up its choppiness this week. Both stock and bond prices fell. Higher interest rates are finally mattering. It sure has taken longer than we anticipated. The 0% interest rate environment from the last decade and a half has completely come unwound. It's a healthier place for the Market to get to. But the process of recalibration h…

I know I say it a lot, but there's so much going on these days. The Market is a living, breathing animal which is driven by a myriad of issues and events around the world. As a discounting mechanism, it prices in expectations of various outcomes quickly. It's the wisdom of crowds. Here's another rapid rundown of the week's events and implications a…

This week officially marked the end of an era. A new one was born. TD Ameritrade is no more. The Charles Schwab Corporation officially integrated the business it bought into a merged platform which created the largest discount broker dealer and custodian in our industry. It's been a 3-year process. The acquisition was announced in 2019. Both compan…

It's Labor Day weekend. This marks the unofficial end of Summer. Activities have concluded. Kids are mostly back in school. Neighborhoods are seemingly quieter during the day. Parents are no doubt facing those bigger bills. It's a total bummer for some. Others might be rejoicing in getting their lives back, of sorts. This weekend is the final push …

There's been some turbulent price action throughout the Market in August. It's been felt in stocks, it's been felt in bonds, it's also been felt in commodities. Trends reversed hard from earlier in the year, when prices had generally risen. Some assets have moved at faster paces than others, particularly in Mega Cap Tech, which shot up like a rocke…

Americans keep spending. GDP (Gross Domestic Product) grew at an annualized rate of 2.4% in Q2. Strong consumer spending led. The Fed's staff subsequently canceled its prediction for a recession, given the resilience of the Economy. Retail sales increased 0.7% in July, a much stronger-than-expected result. The Street modeled 0.4% growth. That trans…

We are in the heart of August and that means Back-to-School season is upon us. Students are getting ready to meet their new teachers with mixed emotions of both nerves and excitement for going back to school. In fact, some parts of the country have already started school. Parents are tasked with taking inventory and gearing kids up for heading back…

The Federal Reserve took interest rates to a 22-year high this week, reaching 5.5%. The Market seems to be declaring a Fed victory over the historic inflation. The Consumer Price Index is now down to 3%. It hit over 9% last Summer. Importantly, the Fed no longer forecasts a recession ahead. That's new. What's also new is the Economy accelerated in …

It's been 17 months since Russia invaded Ukraine. It was widely believed initially that Kyiv would fall in a matter of days. It didn't. The resolve of the Ukrainian people was completely underestimated. The War in Ukraine has not had much of an impact on the Market. Of course, the price of Oil spiked at the outset of the invasion. But it has since …

The rate of inflation keeps cooling. This week proved it again. The Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3% in June compared to a year ago. That's the slowest pace since the Spring of 2021. Inflation keeps moving closer to the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. The Core rate, which strips out Food and Energy, was up 4.8%. That is also a 2-year low…

Twelve score and seven years ago, our fathers brought forth a new nation. It was an idea, years in the making. A place called Independence Hall in Philadelphia became the birthplace of the United States of America. In the Summer of 1776, the Second Continental Congress signed the Declaration of Independence. Eleven years later, in that same room, t…

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was in Washington this week. The goal was to enhance the growing alliance with the United States as well as seek mutual investments as his country represents a strategic counterweight to China. Modi also met with top leaders from Silicon Valley. That included Apple's Tim Cook, Microsoft's Satya Nadella and Alphab…

Forget "Sell in May and Go Away." June brought some serious Stock Market strength. This rip-roaring rally sure caught us by surprise. The yield curve has been inverted for over a year, amongst the widest levels in history. The aggressive Fed tightening, the slowing Economy, simmering geopolitical tensions, not even the serious risk of an American d…

Apple introduced its first mixed-reality headset at its annual Worldwide Developers Conference this week. It launched a new era of what CEO Tim Cook called "spatial computing." The sleek, digital goggles seemingly take you to another world. Or perhaps more accurately, that virtual world comes to you when you put the headset on and take a break from…

2023 was supposed to be the most telegraphed economic recession in memory. To be sure, things have definitely been slowing. That's been evident throughout retail and manufacturing. People are buying less stuff. Commodity prices, from Oil to Steel to Copper, fell to multi-month lows. It's a sign of shrinking demand. Those segments of the Economy hav…

America's Economy keeps chugging along, despite so many signs of slowing. Consumers keep consuming. That's critical as consumer spending accounts for 70% of US GDP. They have certainly changed their interests and habits though. Americans keep buying less stuff and are spending more out and about. It's been a complete reversal from Covid.…

As goes Disney, so goes the nation. That's a popular phrase used for years, as the company touches so many aspects of America's Economy, from coast-to-coast. Today Disney spans the globe. Perhaps soon, the phrase will expand to the World. Ultimately, it will no doubt include AI.על ידי Mike Frazier

$31 Trillion; That's our nation's debt. It's a really big number. A Trillion has twelve 0's: 31,000,000,000,000. Another way to say it is 31 Thousand Billion or 31 Million Million. Again, it's a really big number.על ידי Mike Frazier

The school year is nearing a close. The start of May, next week, leads to finals followed by report cards, which takes students into Summer. It's an exciting time. It's a stressful and scary time too. The class of 2023 will embark on their next stage of life; Hopefully prepared for whatever comes their way. June used to be that month, but for bette…

The Debt ceiling is back on the public radar this week. It never left ours. We've considered it amongst the greatest risks in 2023; Still do. The issue is expected to ultimately get resolved. But the deadline could come sooner. The political process will undoubtedly bring stress. That's the Washington way. Making things more complicated, this Congr…

It's that time again: Earnings Season. Corporate America delivers its quarterly report cards to show investors how they're doing. It's a time to focus on facts. It's about execution and results. Above all else, over time, it's earnings that drive stock prices.

The hits just keep on coming. The Market has much to absorb these days. It was another consequential week with the highly anticipated Fed meeting in the wake of this new banking crisis. It was definitely Market moving. I am well aware that covering interest rates, the financial system and the Fed is seemingly boring. I never want to bore you. But i…

This was a consequential week on Wall Street. SVB Financial, the parent company of Silicon Valley Bank, officially filed chapter 11. In the end, there were no buyers for the bank. Fears spread about contagion. Another bank, just up Highway 101 became the next focus. First Republic received a $30 Billion lifeline from the biggest banks on Wall Stree…

The Market ran into a brick wall this week. That wall came in the form of 4% on the 10-Year Treasury yield. Upon impact, stocks and bonds went in opposite directions and fast. Stocks fell sharply. Bonds rallied. That is quite different from last year, when both declined together. It was pretty rare.