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We live in a world where our civilization and daily lives depend upon institutions, infrastructure, and technological substrates that are _complicated_ but not _unknowable_. Join Patrick McKenzie (patio11) as he discusses how decisions, technology, culture, and incentives shape our finance, technology, government, and more, with the people who built (and build) those Complex Systems.
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Betting on the future via prediction markets, with Stephen Grugett of Manifold
51:57
51:57
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51:57
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Stephen Grugett, a co-founder of Manifold, to discuss prediction markets. They cover how prediction markets work, their efficiency in aggregating information, and why they serve as a minority report against prevailing narratives. They cover past controversies, potential risks, and the philoso…
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Reporting on tech with Kelsey Piper
1:06:40
1:06:40
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1:06:40
Patrick McKenzie (aka @Patio11) is joined by Kelsey Piper, a journalist for Vox’s Future Perfect. Kelsey recently reported on equity irregularities at OpenAI in May of 2024, leading to an improvement of their policies in this area. We discuss the social function of equity in the technology industry, why the tech industry and reporters have had a fr…
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Writing the first draft of financial history with Byrne Hobart
50:45
50:45
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50:45
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Byrne Hobart to discuss Byrne’s vantage point as writer of The Diff, a tech and finance newsletter. Byrne explains the toxicity of the 30-year mortgage, the dynamics of the finance newsletter ecosystem, how rationalist epistemics can be applied to hedge funds, and the joy of learning about an industry from sc…
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How the Smart Money teaches trading with Ricki Heicklen
1:40:15
1:40:15
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1:40:15
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and Ricki Heicklen discuss Ricki’s innovative approaches to teaching trading. Trading is traditionally taught only by practitioners, to practitioners. The curricula that trading firms use are not published externally, to avoid empowering competitors. Ricki explains how she teaches trade mechanics, how markets and traders …
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