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Tesla has increased it's CAPEX guidance, and plans to spend between $4.5-$6B on Capital Expenditures over each of the next two years. These investments are to ramp vehicle production, and build out new battery production lines for the 4680 cell (my guess). This is a super exciting development as Tesla invests like crazy to scale to millions of vehi…
 
Arcimoto announced a partnership this morning with DHL, to deliver the Fun Utility Vehicle (FUV) to the 48 continental United States. This is really exciting news, as Arcimoto ramps up production and gears up for its goal of producing (and delivering) 50,000 units per year. I'm joined by Mark Frohnmayer CEO & Founder of Arcimoto to discuss this new…
 
Tesla's highly anticipated 'FSD beta' software update is now being set out to a handful of lucky customers. Although you have to oversee the vehicle, this new feature allows you to plug in a destination and the car to start driving there (all by itself). Wow. This is already going viral, and it should be. Tesla is leveraging the data from these ear…
 
Tesla Q3 2020 earnings preview! I'm projecting Tesla will grow revenue by more than 30% to ~$8.3B, and produce about ~$500M in operating income (excluding any impact from Elon's stock compensation package). What I'm most curious about on the conference call is the production ramp of Tesla's new 4680 battery cell, and any details surrounding the pla…
 
Tesla reports record Q3 deliveries of 139,300, up 43% year over year. These record breaking numbers (in delivery & production) imply a huge financial beat and profit coming. The best part is this is just the start of Tesla posting consecutive quarters, of record deliveries and revenue. I think the company could still hit its (pre-COVID) guidance of…
 
Full breakdown of Tesla's Battery investor day. From the new 4680 cell, to the tabless electrode, to the potential of the Model 2 ... I try and summarize one of the most important days in Tesla history. The cat is out of the bag, Tesla is bringing cell production in house and scaling like crazy. They plan to hit 100GWh/yr by 2022 of this new cell. …
 
Interview with James Stephenson, fellow Tesla shareholder, and prominent Tesla Twitter community member. James has been fighting the FUD with incredible analysis on Twitter for years, and has even been applauded by Elon Musk for his insight. In this podcast we discuss how Tesla has evolved in the two years since we were featured in a Wall Street Jo…
 
Tesla now trades at a valuation of ~$400B, making it the world's largest automaker and one of the largest public companies in the world. Can the current financials justify this valuation? How far out, and what assumptions must you have for TSLA to make sense at these prices? In this video I walk through my thinking as a long-term investor, and why …
 
GM is partnering with Nikola Motors to build its EV and FCEV pickups and semi trucks. As part of the deal, Nikola is issuing $2B in new stock to GM for "in-kind" services. It looks like both companies are super desperate. Nikola needed an OEM partner to build the Badger, and GM wanted good press for it's EV division (along with $2B in shares). What…
 
I can't even believe it! I'm getting a Model Y!!!!! Tesla stock has been going up so much, I just couldn't resist. We will be documenting the whole process of the HyperShip, from ordering to delivery, to epic roadtrips!! Huge thank you to all the HyperChangers & Patreons for making this possible. It's a dream come true :)…
 
Putting pen to paper and estimating Tesla's financials for Q3 and Q4 of 2020. As the stock price keeps soaring to new highs, I thought it was the perfect time to get back to fundamentals :) I'm expecting back to back record quarters of deliveries, revenue and profitability, starting this quarter. My biggest questions heading into the end of the yea…
 
Rumors are swirling. Tesla has sent out battery day invites with a teaser image that appears to show 'silicon nanowires' ... Amprius Technologies, a silicon anode/nanowire startup just relocated right next to Tesla's top secret Project Roadrunner Battery facility ... and Elon Musk is replying to Amprius tweets about reaching an energy density of 40…
 
Tesla stock is up 822% in the past year, to $2,000+. The market capitalization is almost $400. I'm holding all my shares. Are we crazy? Is this a ridiculous valuation? Or will Tesla's Autopilot self-driving software justify a market capitalization worth Trillions? How many factories are already price in? We cover everything. going through the mind …
 
There's no doubt Tesla will announce a battery recycling initiative at the upcoming battery investor day, but will it involve Redwood Materials? Tesla CTO/Co-Founder JB Straubel founded a battery/materials recycling company in 2017, and they are now scaling quickly. Is Redwood a part of Tesla's battery recycling plans, what's the relationship betwe…
 
Spotify is on its way to disrupt and dominate the podcast industry. Recently, the company has signed exclusive deals with Joe Rogan, Kim Kardashian, DC Comics and Michelle Obama for content. But that's only half the excitement, Spotify has also launched a new podcast advertising format: Streaming Ad Insertion (SAI). This will be a game-changer for …
 
Spotify grew its premium user-base 27% in Q2, to 138M subscribers. Overall Monthly Active Users (MAUs), were up 29% to 299M. Revenue increased 13%, to €1.889B. I'm more bullish on Spotify than ever as the company pushes into original podcasting content, signing deals with creators like Joe Rogan, Michelle Obama and Kim Kardashian. My biggest insigh…
 
NIO reports Q2 2020 revenue of $527M (+140%), with a positive gross margin of 8.4%. This was a huge sequential improvement across the board, and sets NIO up on the path towards profitability, with its upcoming EC6. NIO's newest EV, the EC6 is already accepting orders on the NIO app, and is set for customer deliveries in September. This should accel…
 
*SPOILER ALERT* Do not watch this if you want to be surprised at Tesla Battery Investor Day. This video is my entire theory of how Tesla tested Maxwell's tech in 2017/18, bought the company in 2019, and has been scaling in house battery cell production with the DBE technology, ever since. Tesla's biggest constraint on growth is they don't have enou…
 
Interview with Tom Kysar, the head of Operations at Augur. Augur is a decentralized betting platform/prediction market that is built on the Ethereum blockchain. It originally launched a V1 beta version a couple years ago that generated $25M in bets. Now they have relaunched Augur V2, and you can use it to place decentralized bets today! I think thi…
 
If Tesla designed a vehicle from scratch for the Indian market, what would that look like? How about an electric rickshaw, the Cybershaw. This is a moonshot concept that I think has a lot of potential to move people & cargo around urban environments. Projections show Indian electric rickshaw sales could hit 20M units per year, at $2.5K per unit, th…
 
The head of Panasonic's US EV business (and in charge of working with Tesla at the Nevada Gigafactory), has revealed details about the company's battery cell technology roadmap. Panasonic expects energy density to improve 20% in 5 years, and significant cobalt reductions even sooner. It's interesting to see Tesla continually upgrading its Panasonic…
 
The Silicon Valley investor GOATS 🐐Jason Calacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya, David Sacks and David Freiberg have turned their poker squad into the world's best new podcast. With under 5,000 subscribers and 68,000 total views, this is a total hidden gem. I expect this to blow up (rightfully so) as the world's leading business podcast and hit 1M subscri…
 
Analysis of Tesla's Q2 2020 shareholder letter, financial results and conference call. It was an EPIC call, with the Austin factory confirmed (on 2,000 acres), and Elon's excitement showing through. Tesla is doing better than ever! The company has reported 4 GAAP Net Income profits in a row, despite the COVID crisis, and is still on track to hit gu…
 
Interview with Yahoo! Finance on 07/22, pre-Tesla Q2 earnings, discussing what to expect in the upcoming report. I go into the solarroof opportunity, and why Tesla's 'Computers on Wheels' business model justifies a higher market capitalization than Toyota. Huge shoutout to Yahoo! for inviting me on, thank you!…
 
Chinese EV-maker NIO has seen its stock price soar 220% in the past year, to a valuation of ~$15B. Is the hype justified for the 'Tesla of China'? I think so. NIO just reported record Q2 deliveries of 10,000+ vehicles, and is set to introduce a lower cost coupe (EC6) later this year. What are your thoughts on NIO stock and it's valuation?…
 
My expectations for Tesla's financials in Q2, are $5.9B in revenue and $121M in GAAP operating income. If deliveries continue ramping, Tesla has a good shot of hitting its (pre-COVID) 2020 delivery guidance of 500,000+ units. Additionally, with deliveries beating production by about 8K units in the quarter, cash flow will likely be positive (around…
 
A conversation with Vivas Kumar about potential strategies for Tesla to enter the India market. With only ~4M passenger vehicles sold in India each year, the addressable market for Tesla's 4-wheeled vehicles is small. On the other hand, the opportunity for Powerpack/Powerwall + Solarroof to fix the grid, is massive. Additionally, there could be a h…
 
New reports indicate that just ~8% of Quibi's free trial users are converting to the service. My estimate is that Quibi has ~144K paying subscribers, generating about $12M in annual revenue. This is wayyyy below the company's targets, and is not a good sign for the future. Quibi is running out of money and will need to show massive user growth to c…
 
A conversation with Sean Mehta, a battery scientist at Sila Nanotechnologies, about the potential of transition metal-free Cathodes & their potential to disrupt the battery materials supply chain. I learned a ton in this interview!! What are your thoughts about this exciting technology & lab results??…
 
SpaceX's low earth orbit satellite project, Starlink, continues to progress at a rapid clip. I got an email last night, asking me to enter my exact address to see if I'm eligible for the beta testing. Starlink is planning to begin delivering internet service THIS SUMMER. With 500+ satellite's already in orbit, and many launches planned in the near …
 
Tesla has raised the price of it's Full-Self Driving (FSD) packaged yet again, from $7K to $8K. Elon Musk has hinted that the long-term value could be $100K+, once general autonomy and regulatory approval has been achieved. In the meantime, incremental gross margin expansion because of raising FSD prices will be a massive financial tailwind for the…
 
Interview with Tom Smith, the CEO/Founder of Brooklyn-based male-fertility startup Dadi. Previously, Tom worked at Apple HQ and then founded Imoji, a sticker company that sold to GIPHY in 2017. His newest venture, Dadi, offers direct to consumer at-home sperm testing, and storage. He's bringing much needed disruption to the male fertility space, by…
 
This is not a drill. Tesla has released official Short Shorts in its merch store for $69.420. These limited edition red & gold shorts wit 'S3XY' on the butt are an inside joke for Tesla shareholders. Tesla has been one of the most shorted & criticized stocks for years... with numerous billionaire short-sellers/skeptics. Now those haters have been p…
 
Amazon has purchased Zoox for $1.2B. The San Francisco based startup is developing autonomous vehicle technology. Zoox has raised more than $1B in funding, and was valued at over $3B in 2018. The question is why did Amazon get the on the cheap and what technology was so valuable? What we do know, is that Amazon continues to vertically integrate its…
 
Arcimoto stock has soared more than 450% in the past 3 months, on the back of ramping deliveries and new financing. In June, the company raised $17M, giving them enough funding to put the pedal to the metal. I caught up with CEO/Founder Mark Frohnmayer, to get his take on the recent Hyrecar partnership & funding news.…
 
Tesla beats everyone's estimates and reports deliveries of 90,650 for Q2 2020. Despite over a month of the Fremont factory being shutdown and a global pandemic, Tesla was able to grow its deliveries by 2% sequentially. My projections indicate the company is still on track to hits its annual 2020 delivery guidance of 500,000+ vehicles. This would be…
 
Interview with Vivas Kumar, ex Battery Supply Chain Manager for Tesla, now a Principal at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. Vivas prepared a 34 slide presentation about the state of the Lithium industry, and battery materials supply chain. As EV sales climb from 1M/year to 50M/year over the next decade or two, massive investments need to be made in t…
 
New documents confirm Tesla is expanding battery manufacturing and R&D operations in Palo Alto. This essentially confirms Tesla's 'Project Roadrunner', a top secret initiative with the goal of producing battery cells in house (with a cost below $100kWh). With up to 100 people working in 4 shifts 24/7, it seems like Tesla is truly ramping capacity o…
 
Tesla has posted it's most in-depth corporate sustainability report yet. This analysis of the company's ever improving carbon emissions per vehicle, shows why Tesla is way ahead of the pack. From tailpipe emissions, to battery efficiency, to water usage, Tesla continues to push the envelope on becoming as sustainable as possible! This makes me so p…
 
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