Dream Podcast - NFL Week 7 THE PICKS !!

RJ Bell's Dream Preview

RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, Scott Seidenberg and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL Week 7 betting. The guys give out their best picks for this week and much more.

Speaker Insights and Key Moments (Timestamps included):

RJ Bell (0:05 - 1:49) introduces the show, reflecting on a poor betting week. He promotes a $777 basketball season deal for picks, highlighting Mackenzie's 57% win rate over nearly 600 NBA plays.

Steve Fezzik (2:21 - 2:31) humorously discusses his difficulties in getting Mackenzie's picks, acknowledging Mackenzie's NBA betting success. RJ refers to Mackenzie as an NBA betting superstar.

Steve Fezzik (4:05 - 4:46) discusses home underdogs' historically bad performance, going 0-10 against the spread, a statistical anomaly. Fezzik states, “This won’t happen again in my lifetime,” emphasizing the rarity of this outcome.

Scott Seidenberg (5:15 - 5:20) confirms that road favorites went 9-0 ATS (against the spread), marking the most covers by road favorites since the merger. The streak extends to 12-0 if combining the results of Weeks 5 and 6.

RJ Bell (6:09 - 6:40) reflects on road favorites' performance and mentions how blindly following trends, such as backing road favorites, can lead to disaster. He believes this was the worst week in their betting history.

Steve Fezzik (7:10 - 7:33) provides insight into a betting strategy involving Jacksonville's line movement before the game. He discusses the potential for cash-out strategies in betting but acknowledges that they often favor the sportsbook.

RJ Bell (9:55 - 10:31) engages in a philosophical discussion about hedging, illustrating how life-changing money influences betting decisions, referencing a hypothetical $35 million cash-out on a $50 million proposition.

Steve Fezzik (13:41 - 13:50) compares the unpredictability of the NFL to a roulette wheel, underscoring the randomness of recent betting outcomes and the challenge of predicting future results.

Steve Fezzik (20:12 - 20:46) presents a compelling case for betting on Tennessee (+9), supported by advanced statistics. He compares teams' yards per play, showing that Tennessee's defense is among the best in the NFL, even slightly better than Buffalo’s defense. Fezzik believes this makes Tennessee a valuable underdog bet.

Scott Seidenberg (21:23 - 21:33) briefly supports Tennessee, echoing Fezzik's sentiment about the volatility of last week’s results. He points out that this week might be favorable for the underdogs, including Tennessee.

RJ Bell (23:28 - 24:17) discusses Buffalo’s declining status from being perceived as a top-five team earlier in the season. Despite this, Bell believes Buffalo remains overvalued, particularly when laying 9.5 points.

Steve Fezzik (25:15 - 25:23) analyzes Amari Cooper’s value to the Buffalo offense, initially rating him as only worth a half-point boost in betting lines, but admits Cooper’s value might increase with more integration into Buffalo’s system.

Scott Seidenberg (29:53 - 30:07) analyzes trends involving teams coming off 20-point wins, supporting Detroit against Minnesota this week. He provides historical data on teams in similar situations, which supports the idea that Detroit may be undervalued.

RJ Bell (33:55 - 34:15) wraps up with a humorous take, arguing that betting on Minnesota-Detroit over is simplistic, but he supports Minnesota based on their defense's strength and the weak opposing defense.

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