The Future of Aid, Donald Trump, and the Prisoner’s Dilemma | A dialogue with Dr. Göran Holmqvist

DevelopmentAid Dialogues

While the drastic aid cuts announced by the largest donors are making the headlines around the world, a deeper issue may be at stake. In this episode of DevelopmentAid Dialogues, host Hisham Allam speaks to Dr. Göran Holmqvist, perhaps the most prominent voice in the international context of development, about the unprecedented shift in global aid paradigms.

With decades of leadership experience, including at SIDA in Sweden, UNICEF's Office of Research in Florence, and the Nordic Africa Institute, Dr. Holmqvist is now a researcher at the Institute for Future Studies in Stockholm. His thinking is both urgent and sobering about the geopolitical undercurrents that are driving today's aid cuts.

With foreign aid budgets slashed by up to 40% in the UK, France and Belgium, with Germany likely to follow, the question becomes that much more defining: is this a temporary response due to fiscal pressures or the beginning of a long-term retreat into a darker, more introspective place relative to global solidarity?

Download the transcript of this episode.

"In the short run, yes, it looks quite problematic," Holmqvist said. But he warned against drawing simplistic conclusions. “When it comes to the U.S., I believe the aid cuts reflect a deeper ideological repositioning. For some European countries, the reductions appear more reluctant—done with regret and driven by budgetary constraints rather than a lack of political will."

Yet the implications are profound. Holmqvist emphasized that the challenges necessitating global cooperation—climate change, migration, conflict—are intensifying, not fading. “These problems will come back and haunt us. Eventually, we’ll have to return to the table of international cooperation.”

The disconnect between public sentiment and political action has made aid an easy target. Holmqvist warned against internalizing the rhetoric that global solidarity is unpopular. “We shouldn’t buy into the idea that people don’t care anymore. That simply isn’t supported by the evidence.”

Throughout the conversation, Holmqvist returned to a powerful metaphor—the Prisoner’s Dilemma. Global problems, he explained, mirror the logic of that game: individual actors are tempted to defect for short-term gain, even though long-term cooperation benefits everyone. “Game theory shows us that the most successful strategy over time is ‘tit-for-tat with forgiveness.’ That means we start by cooperating, punish defections, but always leave the door open to rebuild trust.”

Applying this logic, he stressed the need for “naming and shaming” countries that withdraw from cooperation.

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