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תוכן מסופק על ידי Brazil Time. כל תוכן הפודקאסטים כולל פרקים, גרפיקה ותיאורי פודקאסטים מועלים ומסופקים ישירות על ידי Brazil Time או שותף פלטפורמת הפודקאסט שלהם. אם אתה מאמין שמישהו משתמש ביצירה שלך המוגנת בזכויות יוצרים ללא רשותך, אתה יכול לעקוב אחר התהליך המתואר כאן https://he.player.fm/legal.
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Bolsonaro's 2026 Gambit: Legal Hurdles and Trump's Shadow in Brazil's Political Future

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Manage episode 453651819 series 3621194
תוכן מסופק על ידי Brazil Time. כל תוכן הפודקאסטים כולל פרקים, גרפיקה ותיאורי פודקאסטים מועלים ומסופקים ישירות על ידי Brazil Time או שותף פלטפורמת הפודקאסט שלהם. אם אתה מאמין שמישהו משתמש ביצירה שלך המוגנת בזכויות יוצרים ללא רשותך, אתה יכול לעקוב אחר התהליך המתואר כאן https://he.player.fm/legal.

Brazil's political landscape is experiencing significant turbulence as it looks toward the 2026 presidential election. Former President Jair Bolsonaro, despite being barred from holding office until 2030, has boldly declared his intention to run for president again[6]. This declaration directly challenges both his legal restrictions and his own Liberal Party's leadership, which has been exploring alternative candidates[5].

Legal and Political Challenges

Bolsonaro's ineligibility stems from a 2023 ruling by Brazil's Superior Electoral Court for abuse of power and spreading disinformation about the voting system[6]. However, there are potential pathways for his return to politics. The Senate Constitution and Justice Committee has approved a legislative proposal that could provide a legal loophole for Bolsonaro to overturn his electoral conviction[7]. The bill's provision states that individuals would only lose their political rights when their conduct results in specific electoral consequences, which didn't occur in Bolsonaro's case[7].

The Trump Factor

The recent political developments in the United States have energized Bolsonaro's supporters. Trump's return to prominence has invigorated the Brazilian right wing, with Bolsonaro's movement drawing direct parallels between their situations[2]. This connection extends beyond rhetoric, as evidenced by the establishment of CPAC Brasil and the Conservative-Liberal Institute, which mirror American conservative institutions[2].

Party Dynamics and Alternative Candidates

The Liberal Party faces internal complications, with its leader, Valdemar Costa Neto, being legally prohibited from communicating with Bolsonaro despite their offices being across the hallway from each other[5]. While the party remains committed to Bolsonaro, they're also considering alternatives, including São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas[3]. Recent polls show incumbent President Lula leading potential scenarios with 32% support, while alternative conservative candidates like businessman Pablo Marçal and Governor de Freitas trail with 18% and 15% respectively[6].

Public Opinion and Democratic Impact

Current polling shows a divided electorate, with President Lula holding slightly higher favorability ratings than Bolsonaro (48% versus 40%)[4]. The impact on Brazil's democracy remains a point of contention, with 42% of Brazilians believing Lula's return to office has had no effect on democracy, while 32% think it has made Brazil more democratic[4]. These numbers reflect the ongoing polarization in Brazilian society and suggest that the 2026 election could be another closely contested battle, regardless of who ultimately emerges as the conservative standard-bearer.

Citations:
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026\_Brazilian\_general\_election
[2] https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/10/americas/trump-inspires-brazil-bolsonaro-intl-latam/index.html
[3] https://valorinternational.globo.com/politics/news/2024/11/08/trumps-victory-empowers-bolsonarism-raising-alarms-for-lula.ghtml
[4] https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2024/09/23/brazilians-views-of-lula-and-bolsonaro/
[5] https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2024-10-17/bolsonaros-party-set-on-running-him-for-brazil-presidency-in-2026
[6] https://www.riotimesonline.com/bolsonaro-challenges-party-declares-2026-presidential-bid-despite-ineligibility/
[7] https://brazilian.report/liveblog/politics-insider/2024/08/21/bill-make-bolsonaro-eligible-in-2026/

p@rt


This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit braziltime.substack.com
  continue reading

30 פרקים

Artwork
iconשתפו
 
Manage episode 453651819 series 3621194
תוכן מסופק על ידי Brazil Time. כל תוכן הפודקאסטים כולל פרקים, גרפיקה ותיאורי פודקאסטים מועלים ומסופקים ישירות על ידי Brazil Time או שותף פלטפורמת הפודקאסט שלהם. אם אתה מאמין שמישהו משתמש ביצירה שלך המוגנת בזכויות יוצרים ללא רשותך, אתה יכול לעקוב אחר התהליך המתואר כאן https://he.player.fm/legal.

Brazil's political landscape is experiencing significant turbulence as it looks toward the 2026 presidential election. Former President Jair Bolsonaro, despite being barred from holding office until 2030, has boldly declared his intention to run for president again[6]. This declaration directly challenges both his legal restrictions and his own Liberal Party's leadership, which has been exploring alternative candidates[5].

Legal and Political Challenges

Bolsonaro's ineligibility stems from a 2023 ruling by Brazil's Superior Electoral Court for abuse of power and spreading disinformation about the voting system[6]. However, there are potential pathways for his return to politics. The Senate Constitution and Justice Committee has approved a legislative proposal that could provide a legal loophole for Bolsonaro to overturn his electoral conviction[7]. The bill's provision states that individuals would only lose their political rights when their conduct results in specific electoral consequences, which didn't occur in Bolsonaro's case[7].

The Trump Factor

The recent political developments in the United States have energized Bolsonaro's supporters. Trump's return to prominence has invigorated the Brazilian right wing, with Bolsonaro's movement drawing direct parallels between their situations[2]. This connection extends beyond rhetoric, as evidenced by the establishment of CPAC Brasil and the Conservative-Liberal Institute, which mirror American conservative institutions[2].

Party Dynamics and Alternative Candidates

The Liberal Party faces internal complications, with its leader, Valdemar Costa Neto, being legally prohibited from communicating with Bolsonaro despite their offices being across the hallway from each other[5]. While the party remains committed to Bolsonaro, they're also considering alternatives, including São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas[3]. Recent polls show incumbent President Lula leading potential scenarios with 32% support, while alternative conservative candidates like businessman Pablo Marçal and Governor de Freitas trail with 18% and 15% respectively[6].

Public Opinion and Democratic Impact

Current polling shows a divided electorate, with President Lula holding slightly higher favorability ratings than Bolsonaro (48% versus 40%)[4]. The impact on Brazil's democracy remains a point of contention, with 42% of Brazilians believing Lula's return to office has had no effect on democracy, while 32% think it has made Brazil more democratic[4]. These numbers reflect the ongoing polarization in Brazilian society and suggest that the 2026 election could be another closely contested battle, regardless of who ultimately emerges as the conservative standard-bearer.

Citations:
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026\_Brazilian\_general\_election
[2] https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/10/americas/trump-inspires-brazil-bolsonaro-intl-latam/index.html
[3] https://valorinternational.globo.com/politics/news/2024/11/08/trumps-victory-empowers-bolsonarism-raising-alarms-for-lula.ghtml
[4] https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2024/09/23/brazilians-views-of-lula-and-bolsonaro/
[5] https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2024-10-17/bolsonaros-party-set-on-running-him-for-brazil-presidency-in-2026
[6] https://www.riotimesonline.com/bolsonaro-challenges-party-declares-2026-presidential-bid-despite-ineligibility/
[7] https://brazilian.report/liveblog/politics-insider/2024/08/21/bill-make-bolsonaro-eligible-in-2026/

p@rt


This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit braziltime.substack.com
  continue reading

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