“Early Chinese Language Media Coverage of the AI 2027 Report: A Qualitative Analysis” by jeanne_, eeeee

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Sweat and Resilience: Balancing Chronic Migraine with Fitness Goals 35:00

לפני 9 ימים35:00

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The healing power of fitness goes far beyond physical benefits—for today’s guest, it’s a form of self-expression and a celebration of what the body can do. In this episode, host Nora McInerny sits down with fitness personality Ivylis Rivera, who shares her deeply personal journey of navigating life with Chronic Migraine while holding onto her passion for movement. Ivylis opens up about the struggle of staying active while facing the fear of triggering a headache or migraine attack and the resilience it takes to keep pushing forward—a resilience that carried her through the challenging journey of finding a Chronic Migraine treatment plan that worked for her. Join Nora and Ivylis as they explore the concept of “soft living,” a philosophy Ivylis embraces—staying active, listening to your body, and building trust in oneself. Click here for Product Information, including Boxed Warning and Medication Guide, or visit https://abbv.ie/prescribing_info See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

לפני 28 ימים 27:35

MP3•בית הפרקים

Our research methodology and synthesis of key findings across media artefacts
A proposal for how censorship patterns may provide signal for the Chinese government's thinking about AGI and the race to superintelligence
A more detailed analysis of each of the nine artefacts, organised by type: Mainstream Media, Forum Discussion, Bilibili (Chinese Youtube) Videos, Personal Blogs.

Methodology

We conducted a comprehensive search across major Chinese-language platforms–including news outlets, video platforms, forums, microblogging sites, and personal blogs–to collect the media featured in this report. We supplemented this with Deep Research to identify additional sites mentioning AI 2027. Our analysis focuses primarily on content published in the first few days (4-7 April) following the report's release. More media [...]
---
Outline:
(00:58) Methodology
(01:36) Summary
(02:48) Censorship as Signal
(07:29) Analysis
(07:53) Mainstream Media
(07:57) English Title: Doomsday Timeline is Here! Former OpenAI Researcher's 76-page Hardcore Simulation: ASI Takes Over the World in 2027, Humans Become NPCs
(10:27) Forum Discussion
(10:31) English Title: What do you think of former OpenAI researcher's AI 2027 predictions?
(13:34) Bilibili Videos
(13:38) English Title: \[AI 2027\] A mind-expanding wargame simulation of artificial intelligence competition by a former OpenAI researcher
(15:24) English Title: Predicting AI Development in 2027
(17:13) Personal Blogs
(17:16) English Title: Doomsday Timeline: AI 2027 Depicts the Arrival of Superintelligence and the Fate of Humanity Within the Decade
(18:30) English Title: AI 2027: Expert Predictions on the Artificial Intelligence Explosion
(21:57) English Title: AI 2027: A Science Fiction Article
(23:16) English Title: Will AGI Take Over the World in 2027?
(25:46) English Title: AI 2027 Prediction Report: AI May Fully Surpass Humans by 2027
(27:05) Acknowledgements
---
First published:
April 30th, 2025
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JW7nttjTYmgWMqBaF/early-chinese-language-media-coverage-of-the-ai-2027-report
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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“Early Chinese Language Media Coverage of the AI 2027 Report: A Qualitative Analysis” by jeanne_, eeeee

LessWrong (Curated & Popular)

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published לפני 28 ימים

שתפו

MP3•בית הפרקים

Our research methodology and synthesis of key findings across media artefacts
A proposal for how censorship patterns may provide signal for the Chinese government's thinking about AGI and the race to superintelligence
A more detailed analysis of each of the nine artefacts, organised by type: Mainstream Media, Forum Discussion, Bilibili (Chinese Youtube) Videos, Personal Blogs.

Methodology

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This is a link post. "Getting Things in Order: An Introduction to the R Package seriation": Seriation [or "ordination"), i.e., finding a suitable linear order for a set of objects given data and a loss or merit function, is a basic problem in data analysis. Caused by the problem's combinatorial nature, it is hard to solve for all but very small sets. Nevertheless, both exact solution methods and heuristics are available. In this paper we present the package seriation which provides an infrastructure for seriation with R. The infrastructure comprises data structures to represent linear orders as permutation vectors, a wide array of seriation methods using a consistent interface, a method to calculate the value of various loss and merit functions, and several visualization techniques which build on seriation. To illustrate how easily the package can be applied for a variety of applications, a comprehensive collection of [...] --- First published: May 28th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/u2ww8yKp9xAB6qzcr/if-you-re-not-sure-how-to-sort-a-list-or-grid-seriate-it Linkpost URL: https://www.jstatsoft.org/article/download/v025i03/227 --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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לפני 23 hours31:47

31:47

Between late 2024 and mid-May 2025, I briefed over 70 cross-party UK parliamentarians. Just over one-third were MPs, a similar share were members of the House of Lords, and just under one-third came from devolved legislatures — the Scottish Parliament, the Senedd, and the Northern Ireland Assembly. I also held eight additional meetings attended exclusively by parliamentary staffers. While I delivered some briefings alone, most were led by two members of our team. I did this as part of my work as a Policy Advisor with ControlAI, where we aim to build common knowledge of AI risks through clear, honest, and direct engagement with parliamentarians about both the challenges and potential solutions. To succeed at scale in managing AI risk, it is important to continue to build this common knowledge. For this reason, I have decided to share what I have learned over the past few months publicly, in [...] --- Outline: (01:37) (i) Overall reception of our briefings (04:21) (ii) Outreach tips (05:45) (iii) Key talking points (14:20) (iv) Crafting a good pitch (19:23) (v) Some challenges (23:07) (vi) General tips (28:57) (vii) Books & media articles --- First published: May 27th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Xwrajm92fdjd7cqnN/what-we-learned-from-briefing-70-lawmakers-on-the-threat --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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Have the Accelerationists won? Last November Kevin Roose announced that those in favor of going fast on AI had now won against those favoring caution, with the reinstatement of Sam Altman at OpenAI. Let's ignore whether Kevin's was a good description of the world, and deal with a more basic question: if it were so—i.e. if Team Acceleration would control the acceleration from here on out—what kind of win was it they won? It seems to me that they would have probably won in the same sense that your dog has won if she escapes onto the road. She won the power contest with you and is probably feeling good at this moment, but if she does actually like being alive, and just has different ideas about how safe the road is, or wasn’t focused on anything so abstract as that, then whether she ultimately wins or [...] --- First published: May 20th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h45ngW5guruD7tS4b/winning-the-power-to-lose --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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This is a link post. Google Deepmind has announced Gemini Diffusion. Though buried under a host of other IO announcements it's possible that this is actually the most important one! This is significant because diffusion models are entirely different to LLMs. Instead of predicting the next token, they iteratively denoise all the output tokens until it produces a coherent result. This is similar to how image diffusion models work. I've tried they results and they are surprisingly good! It's incredibly fast, averaging nearly 1000 tokens a second. And it one shotted my Google interview question, giving a perfect response in 2 seconds (though it struggled a bit on the followups). It's nowhere near as good as Gemini 2.5 pro, but it knocks ChatGPT 3 out the water. If we'd seen this 3 years ago we'd have been mind blown. Now this is wild for two reasons: We now have [...] --- First published: May 20th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MZvtRqWnwokTub9sH/gemini-diffusion-watch-this-space Linkpost URL: https://deepmind.google/models/gemini-diffusion/ --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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לפני 8 ימים13:05

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I’m reading George Eliot's Impressions of Theophrastus Such (1879)—so far a snoozer compared to her novels. But chapter 17 surprised me for how well it anticipated modern AI doomerism. In summary, Theophrastus is in conversation with Trost, who is an optimist about the future of automation and how it will free us from drudgery and permit us to further extend the reach of the most exalted human capabilities. Theophrastus is more concerned that automation is likely to overtake, obsolete, and atrophy human ability. Among Theophrastus's concerns: People will find that they no longer can do labor that is valuable enough to compete with the machines. This will eventually include intellectual labor, as we develop for example “a machine for drawing the right conclusion, which will doubtless by-and-by be improved into an automaton for finding true premises.” Whereupon humanity will finally be transcended and superseded by its own creation [...] --- Outline: (02:05) Impressions of Theophrastus Such (02:09) Chapter XVII: Shadows of the Coming Race --- First published: May 13th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DFyoYHhbE8icgbTpe/ai-doomerism-in-1879 --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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Epistemic status: thing people have told me that seems right. Also primarily relevant to US audiences. Also I am speaking in my personal capacity and not representing any employer, present or past. Sometimes, I talk to people who work in the AI governance space. One thing that multiple people have told me, which I found surprising, is that there is apparently a real problem where people accidentally rule themselves out of AI policy positions by making political donations of small amounts—in particular, under $10. My understanding is that in the United States, donations to political candidates are a matter of public record, and that if you donate to candidates of one party, this might look bad if you want to gain a government position when another party is in charge. Therefore, donating approximately $3 can significantly damage your career, while not helping your preferred candidate all that [...] --- First published: May 11th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tz43dmLAchxcqnDRA/consider-not-donating-under-usd100-to-political-candidates --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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"If you kiss your child, or your wife, say that you only kiss things which are human, and thus you will not be disturbed if either of them dies." - Epictetus "Whatever suffering arises, all arises due to attachment; with the cessation of attachment, there is the cessation of suffering." - Pali canon "He is not disturbed by loss, he does not delight in gain; he is not disturbed by blame, he does not delight in praise; he is not disturbed by pain, he does not delight in pleasure; he is not disturbed by dishonor, he does not delight in honor." - Pali Canon (Majjhima Nikaya) "An arahant would feel physical pain if struck, but no mental pain. If his mother died, he would organize the funeral, but would feel no grief, no sense of loss." - the Dhammapada "Receive without pride, let go without attachment." - Marcus Aurelius [...] --- First published: May 10th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aGnRcBk4rYuZqENug/it-s-okay-to-feel-bad-for-a-bit --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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The other day I discussed how high monitoring costs can explain the emergence of “aristocratic” systems of governance: Aristocracy and Hostage Capital Arjun Panickssery · Jan 8 There's a conventional narrative by which the pre-20th century aristocracy was the "old corruption" where civil and military positions were distributed inefficiently due to nepotism until the system was replaced by a professional civil service after more enlightened thinkers prevailed ... An element of Douglas Allen's argument that I didn’t expand on was the British Navy. He has a separate paper called “The British Navy Rules” that goes into more detail on why he thinks institutional incentives made them successful from 1670 and 1827 (i.e. for most of the age of fighting sail). In the Seven Years’ War (1756–1763) the British had a 7-to-1 casualty difference in single-ship actions. During the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars (1793–1815) the British had a 5-to-1 [...] --- First published: March 28th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YE4XsvSFJiZkWFtFE/explaining-british-naval-dominance-during-the-age-of-sail --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts , or another podcast app.…

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לפני 15 ימים6:42

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Eliezer and I wrote a book. It's titled If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies. Unlike a lot of other writing either of us have done, it's being professionally published. It's hitting shelves on September 16th. It's a concise (~60k word) book aimed at a broad audience. It's been well-received by people who received advance copies, with some endorsements including: The most important book I've read for years: I want to bring it to every political and corporate leader in the world and stand over them until they've read it. Yudkowsky and Soares, who have studied AI and its possible trajectories for decades, sound a loud trumpet call to humanity to awaken us as we sleepwalk into disaster. - Stephen Fry, actor, broadcaster, and writer If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies may prove to be the most important book of our time. Yudkowsky and Soares believe [...] The original text contained 1 footnote which was omitted from this narration. --- First published: May 14th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iNsy7MsbodCyNTwKs/eliezer-and-i-wrote-a-book-if-anyone-builds-it-everyone-dies --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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לפני 15 ימים8:19

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It was a cold and cloudy San Francisco Sunday. My wife and I were having lunch with friends at a Korean cafe. My phone buzzed with a text. It said my mom was in the hospital. I called to find out more. She had a fever, some pain, and had fainted. The situation was serious, but stable. Monday was a normal day. No news was good news, right? Tuesday she had seizures. Wednesday she was in the ICU. I caught the first flight to Tampa. Thursday she rested comfortably. Friday she was diagnosed with bacterial meningitis, a rare condition that affects about 3,000 people in the US annually. The doctors had known it was a possibility, so she was already receiving treatment. We stayed by her side through the weekend. My dad spent every night with her. We made plans for all the fun things we would when she [...] --- First published: May 13th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/reo79XwMKSZuBhKLv/too-soon --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts , or another podcast app.…

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“PSA: The LessWrong Feedback Service” by JustisMills 4:34

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At the bottom of the LessWrong post editor, if you have at least 100 global karma, you may have noticed this button. The button Many people click the button, and are jumpscared when it starts an Intercom chat with a professional editor (me), asking what sort of feedback they'd like. So, that's what it does. It's a summon Justis button. Why summon Justis? To get feedback on your post, of just about any sort. Typo fixes, grammar checks, sanity checks, clarity checks, fit for LessWrong, the works. If you use the LessWrong editor (as opposed to the Markdown editor) I can leave comments and suggestions directly inline. I also provide detailed narrative feedback (unless you explicitly don't want this) in the Intercom chat itself. The feedback is totally without pressure. You can throw it all away, or just keep the bits you like. Or use it all! In any case [...] --- Outline: (00:35) Why summon Justis? (01:19) Why Justis in particular? (01:48) Am I doing it right? (01:59) How often can I request feedback? (02:22) Can I use the feature for linkposts/crossposts? (02:49) What if I click the button by mistake? (02:59) Should I credit you? (03:16) Couldnt I just use an LLM? (03:48) Why does Justis do this? --- First published: May 12th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bkDrfofLMKFoMGZkE/psa-the-lesswrong-feedback-service --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts , or another podcast app.…

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“Orienting Toward Wizard Power” by johnswentworth 8:20

לפני 21 ימים8:20

8:20

For months, I had the feeling: something is wrong. Some core part of myself had gone missing. I had words and ideas cached, which pointed back to the missing part. There was the story of Benjamin Jesty, a dairy farmer who vaccinated his family against smallpox in 1774 - 20 years before the vaccination technique was popularized, and the same year King Louis XV of France died of the disease. There was another old post which declared “I don’t care that much about giant yachts. I want a cure for aging. I want weekend trips to the moon. I want flying cars and an indestructible body and tiny genetically-engineered dragons.”. There was a cached instinct to look at certain kinds of social incentive gradient, toward managing more people or growing an organization or playing social-political games, and say “no, it's a trap”. To go… in a different direction, orthogonal [...] --- Outline: (01:19) In Search of a Name (04:23) Near Mode --- First published: May 8th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Wg6ptgi2DupFuAnXG/orienting-toward-wizard-power --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“Interpretability Will Not Reliably Find Deceptive AI” by Neel Nanda 13:15

לפני 25 ימים13:15

13:15

(Disclaimer: Post written in a personal capacity. These are personal hot takes and do not in any way represent my employer's views.) TL;DR: I do not think we will produce high reliability methods to evaluate or monitor the safety of superintelligent systems via current research paradigms, with interpretability or otherwise. Interpretability seems a valuable tool here and remains worth investing in, as it will hopefully increase the reliability we can achieve. However, interpretability should be viewed as part of an overall portfolio of defences: a layer in a defence-in-depth strategy. It is not the one thing that will save us, and it still won’t be enough for high reliability. Introduction There's a common, often implicit, argument made in AI safety discussions: interpretability is presented as the only reliable path forward for detecting deception in advanced AI - among many other sources it was argued for in [...] --- Outline: (00:55) Introduction (02:57) High Reliability Seems Unattainable (05:12) Why Won't Interpretability be Reliable? (07:47) The Potential of Black-Box Methods (08:48) The Role of Interpretability (12:02) Conclusion The original text contained 5 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: May 4th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PwnadG4BFjaER3MGf/interpretability-will-not-reliably-find-deceptive-ai --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“Slowdown After 2028: Compute, RLVR Uncertainty, MoE Data Wall” by Vladimir_Nesov 11:33

לפני 26 ימים11:33

11:33

It'll take until ~2050 to repeat the level of scaling that pretraining compute is experiencing this decade, as increasing funding can't sustain the current pace beyond ~2029 if AI doesn't deliver a transformative commercial success by then. Natural text data will also run out around that time, and there are signs that current methods of reasoning training might be mostly eliciting capabilities from the base model. If scaling of reasoning training doesn't bear out actual creation of new capabilities that are sufficiently general, and pretraining at ~2030 levels of compute together with the low hanging fruit of scaffolding doesn't bring AI to crucial capability thresholds, then it might take a while. Possibly decades, since training compute will be growing 3x-4x slower after 2027-2029 than it does now, and the ~6 years of scaling since the ChatGPT moment stretch to 20-25 subsequent years, not even having access to any [...] --- Outline: (01:14) Training Compute Slowdown (04:43) Bounded Potential of Thinking Training (07:43) Data Inefficiency of MoE The original text contained 4 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: May 1st, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XiMRyQcEyKCryST8T/slowdown-after-2028-compute-rlvr-uncertainty-moe-data-wall --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“Early Chinese Language Media Coverage of the AI 2027 Report: A Qualitative Analysis” by jeanne_, eeeee 27:35

לפני 28 ימים27:35

27:35

In this blog post, we analyse how the recent AI 2027 forecast by Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, and Romeo Dean has been discussed across Chinese language platforms. We present: Our research methodology and synthesis of key findings across media artefacts A proposal for how censorship patterns may provide signal for the Chinese government's thinking about AGI and the race to superintelligence A more detailed analysis of each of the nine artefacts, organised by type: Mainstream Media, Forum Discussion, Bilibili (Chinese Youtube) Videos, Personal Blogs. Methodology We conducted a comprehensive search across major Chinese-language platforms–including news outlets, video platforms, forums, microblogging sites, and personal blogs–to collect the media featured in this report. We supplemented this with Deep Research to identify additional sites mentioning AI 2027. Our analysis focuses primarily on content published in the first few days (4-7 April) following the report's release. More media [...] --- Outline: (00:58) Methodology (01:36) Summary (02:48) Censorship as Signal (07:29) Analysis (07:53) Mainstream Media (07:57) English Title: Doomsday Timeline is Here! Former OpenAI Researcher's 76-page Hardcore Simulation: ASI Takes Over the World in 2027, Humans Become NPCs (10:27) Forum Discussion (10:31) English Title: What do you think of former OpenAI researcher's AI 2027 predictions? (13:34) Bilibili Videos (13:38) English Title: \[AI 2027\] A mind-expanding wargame simulation of artificial intelligence competition by a former OpenAI researcher (15:24) English Title: Predicting AI Development in 2027 (17:13) Personal Blogs (17:16) English Title: Doomsday Timeline: AI 2027 Depicts the Arrival of Superintelligence and the Fate of Humanity Within the Decade (18:30) English Title: AI 2027: Expert Predictions on the Artificial Intelligence Explosion (21:57) English Title: AI 2027: A Science Fiction Article (23:16) English Title: Will AGI Take Over the World in 2027? (25:46) English Title: AI 2027 Prediction Report: AI May Fully Surpass Humans by 2027 (27:05) Acknowledgements --- First published: April 30th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JW7nttjTYmgWMqBaF/early-chinese-language-media-coverage-of-the-ai-2027-report --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“Why Have Sentence Lengths Decreased?” by Arjun Panickssery 9:08

לפני 8 weeks9:08

9:08

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“AI 2027: What Superintelligence Looks Like” by Daniel Kokotajlo, Thomas Larsen, elifland, Scott Alexander, Jonas V, romeo 54:30

לפני 8 weeks54:30

54:30

In 2021 I wrote what became my most popular blog post: What 2026 Looks Like. I intended to keep writing predictions all the way to AGI and beyond, but chickened out and just published up till 2026. Well, it's finally time. I'm back, and this time I have a team with me: the AI Futures Project. We've written a concrete scenario of what we think the future of AI will look like. We are highly uncertain, of course, but we hope this story will rhyme with reality enough to help us all prepare for what's ahead. You really should go read it on the website instead of here, it's much better. There's a sliding dashboard that updates the stats as you scroll through the scenario! But I've nevertheless copied the first half of the story below. I look forward to reading your comments. Mid 2025: Stumbling Agents The [...] --- Outline: (01:35) Mid 2025: Stumbling Agents (03:13) Late 2025: The World's Most Expensive AI (08:34) Early 2026: Coding Automation (10:49) Mid 2026: China Wakes Up (13:48) Late 2026: AI Takes Some Jobs (15:35) January 2027: Agent-2 Never Finishes Learning (18:20) February 2027: China Steals Agent-2 (21:12) March 2027: Algorithmic Breakthroughs (23:58) April 2027: Alignment for Agent-3 (27:26) May 2027: National Security (29:50) June 2027: Self-improving AI (31:36) July 2027: The Cheap Remote Worker (34:35) August 2027: The Geopolitics of Superintelligence (40:43) September 2027: Agent-4, the Superhuman AI Researcher --- First published: April 3rd, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TpSFoqoG2M5MAAesg/ai-2027-what-superintelligence-looks-like-1 --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article:…

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לפני 8 weeks18:01

18:01

Back when the OpenAI board attempted and failed to fire Sam Altman, we faced a highly hostile information environment. The battle was fought largely through control of the public narrative, and the above was my attempt to put together what happened.My conclusion, which I still believe, was that Sam Altman had engaged in a variety of unacceptable conduct that merited his firing.In particular, he very much ‘not been consistently candid’ with the board on several important occasions. In particular, he lied to board members about what was said by other board members, with the goal of forcing out a board member he disliked. There were also other instances in which he misled and was otherwise toxic to employees, and he played fast and loose with the investment fund and other outside opportunities. I concluded that the story that this was about ‘AI safety’ or ‘EA (effective altruism)’ or [...] --- Outline: (01:32) The Big Picture Going Forward (06:27) Hagey Verifies Out the Story (08:50) Key Facts From the Story (11:57) Dangers of False Narratives (16:24) A Full Reference and Reading List --- First published: March 31st, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/25EgRNWcY6PM3fWZh/openai-12-battle-of-the-board-redux --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts , or another podcast app.…

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“The Pando Problem: Rethinking AI Individuality” by Jan_Kulveit 27:39

לפני 8 weeks27:39

27:39

Epistemic status: This post aims at an ambitious target: improving intuitive understanding directly. The model for why this is worth trying is that I believe we are more bottlenecked by people having good intuitions guiding their research than, for example, by the ability of people to code and run evals. Quite a few ideas in AI safety implicitly use assumptions about individuality that ultimately derive from human experience. When we talk about AIs scheming, alignment faking or goal preservation, we imply there is something scheming or alignment faking or wanting to preserve its goals or escape the datacentre. If the system in question were human, it would be quite clear what that individual system is. When you read about Reinhold Messner reaching the summit of Everest, you would be curious about the climb, but you would not ask if it was his body there, or his [...] --- Outline: (01:38) Individuality in Biology (03:53) Individuality in AI Systems (10:19) Risks and Limitations of Anthropomorphic Individuality Assumptions (11:25) Coordinating Selves (16:19) Whats at Stake: Stories (17:25) Exporting Myself (21:43) The Alignment Whisperers (23:27) Echoes in the Dataset (25:18) Implications for Alignment Research and Policy --- First published: March 28th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wQKskToGofs4osdJ3/the-pando-problem-rethinking-ai-individuality --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts , or another podcast app.…

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“OpenAI #12: Battle of the Board Redux” by Zvi 18:01

לפני 8 weeks18:01

18:01

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“You will crash your car in front of my house within the next week” by Richard Korzekwa 1:52

לפני 8 weeks1:52

1:52

I'm not writing this to alarm anyone, but it would be irresponsible not to report on something this important. On current trends, every car will be crashed in front of my house within the next week. Here's the data: Until today, only two cars had crashed in front of my house, several months apart, during the 15 months I have lived here. But a few hours ago it happened again, mere weeks from the previous crash. This graph may look harmless enough, but now consider the frequency of crashes this implies over time: The car crash singularity will occur in the early morning hours of Monday, April 7. As crash frequency approaches infinity, every car will be involved. You might be thinking that the same car could be involved in multiple crashes. This is true! But the same car can only withstand a finite number of crashes before it [...] --- First published: April 1st, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FjPWbLdoP4PLDivYT/you-will-crash-your-car-in-front-of-my-house-within-the-next --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts , or another podcast app.…

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“My ‘infohazards small working group’ Signal Chat may have encountered minor leaks” by Linch 10:33

לפני 8 weeks10:33

10:33

Remember: There is no such thing as a pink elephant. Recently, I was made aware that my “infohazards small working group” Signal chat, an informal coordination venue where we have frank discussions about infohazards and why it will be bad if specific hazards were leaked to the press or public, accidentally was shared with a deceitful and discredited so-called “journalist,” Kelsey Piper. She is not the first person to have been accidentally sent sensitive material from our group chat, however she is the first to have threatened to go public about the leak. Needless to say, mistakes were made. We’re still trying to figure out the source of this compromise to our secure chat group, however we thought we should give the public a live update to get ahead of the story. For some context the “infohazards small working group” is a casual discussion venue for the [...] --- Outline: (04:46) Top 10 PR Issues With the EA Movement (major) (05:34) Accidental Filtration of Simple Sabotage Manual for Rebellious AIs (medium) (08:25) Hidden Capabilities Evals Leaked In Advance to Bioterrorism Researchers and Leaders (minor) (09:34) Conclusion --- First published: April 2nd, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xPEfrtK2jfQdbpq97/my-infohazards-small-working-group-signal-chat-may-have --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts , or another podcast app.…

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“Leverage, Exit Costs, and Anger: Re-examining Why We Explode at Home, Not at Work” by at_the_zoo 6:16

לפני 8 weeks6:16

6:16

Let's cut through the comforting narratives and examine a common behavioral pattern with a sharper lens: the stark difference between how anger is managed in professional settings versus domestic ones. Many individuals can navigate challenging workplace interactions with remarkable restraint, only to unleash significant anger or frustration at home shortly after. Why does this disparity exist? Common psychological explanations trot out concepts like "stress spillover," "ego depletion," or the home being a "safe space" for authentic emotions. While these factors might play a role, they feel like half-truths—neatly packaged but ultimately failing to explain the targeted nature and intensity of anger displayed at home. This analysis proposes a more unsentimental approach, rooted in evolutionary biology, game theory, and behavioral science: leverage and exit costs. The real question isn’t just why we explode at home—it's why we so carefully avoid doing so elsewhere. The Logic of Restraint: Low Leverage in [...] --- Outline: (01:14) The Logic of Restraint: Low Leverage in Low-Exit-Cost Environments (01:58) The Home Environment: High Stakes and High Exit Costs (02:41) Re-evaluating Common Explanations Through the Lens of Leverage (04:42) The Overlooked Mechanism: Leveraging Relational Constraints --- First published: April 1st, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/G6PTtsfBpnehqdEgp/leverage-exit-costs-and-anger-re-examining-why-we-explode-at --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“PauseAI and E/Acc Should Switch Sides” by WillPetillo 3:31

לפני 8 weeks3:31

3:31

In the debate over AI development, two movements stand as opposites: PauseAI calls for slowing down AI progress, and e/acc (effective accelerationism) calls for rapid advancement. But what if both sides are working against their own stated interests? What if the most rational strategy for each would be to adopt the other's tactics—if not their ultimate goals? AI development speed ultimately comes down to policy decisions, which are themselves downstream of public opinion. No matter how compelling technical arguments might be on either side, widespread sentiment will determine what regulations are politically viable. Public opinion is most powerfully mobilized against technologies following visible disasters. Consider nuclear power: despite being statistically safer than fossil fuels, its development has been stagnant for decades. Why? Not because of environmental activists, but because of Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, and Fukushima. These disasters produce visceral public reactions that statistics cannot overcome. Just as people [...] --- First published: April 1st, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fZebqiuZcDfLCgizz/pauseai-and-e-acc-should-switch-sides --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“VDT: a solution to decision theory” by L Rudolf L 8:58

לפני 8 weeks8:58

8:58

Introduction Decision theory is about how to behave rationally under conditions of uncertainty, especially if this uncertainty involves being acausally blackmailed and/or gaslit by alien superintelligent basilisks. Decision theory has found numerous practical applications, including proving the existence of God and generating endless LessWrong comments since the beginning of time. However, despite the apparent simplicity of "just choose the best action", no comprehensive decision theory that resolves all decision theory dilemmas has yet been formalized. This paper at long last resolves this dilemma, by introducing a new decision theory: VDT. Decision theory problems and existing theories Some common existing decision theories are: Causal Decision Theory (CDT): select the action that *causes* the best outcome. Evidential Decision Theory (EDT): select the action that you would be happiest to learn that you had taken. Functional Decision Theory (FDT): select the action output by the function such that if you take [...] --- Outline: (00:53) Decision theory problems and existing theories (05:37) Defining VDT (06:34) Experimental results (07:48) Conclusion --- First published: April 1st, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LcjuHNxubQqCry9tT/vdt-a-solution-to-decision-theory --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts , or another podcast app.…

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“LessWrong has been acquired by EA” by habryka 1:33

לפני 8 weeks1:33

1:33

Dear LessWrong community, It is with a sense of... considerable cognitive dissonance that I announce a significant development regarding the future trajectory of LessWrong. After extensive internal deliberation, modeling of potential futures, projections of financial runways, and what I can only describe as a series of profoundly unexpected coordination challenges, the Lightcone Infrastructure team has agreed in principle to the acquisition of LessWrong by EA. I assure you, nothing about how LessWrong operates on a day to day level will change. I have always cared deeply about the robustness and integrity of our institutions, and I am fully aligned with our stakeholders at EA. To be honest, the key thing that EA brings to the table is money and talent. While the recent layoffs in EAs broader industry have been harsh, I have full trust in the leadership of Electronic Arts, and expect them to bring great expertise [...] --- First published: April 1st, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2NGKYt3xdQHwyfGbc/lesswrong-has-been-acquired-by-ea --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“We’re not prepared for an AI market crash” by Remmelt 3:46

לפני 8 weeks3:46

3:46

Our community is not prepared for an AI crash. We're good at tracking new capability developments, but not as much the company financials. Currently, both OpenAI and Anthropic are losing $5 billion+ a year, while under threat of losing users to cheap LLMs. A crash will weaken the labs. Funding-deprived and distracted, execs struggle to counter coordinated efforts to restrict their reckless actions. Journalists turn on tech darlings. Optimism makes way for mass outrage, for all the wasted money and reckless harms. You may not think a crash is likely. But if it happens, we can turn the tide. Preparing for a crash is our best bet.[1] But our community is poorly positioned to respond. Core people positioned themselves inside institutions – to advise on how to maybe make AI 'safe', under the assumption that models rapidly become generally useful. After a crash, this no longer works, for at [...] --- First published: April 1st, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aMYFHnCkY4nKDEqfK/we-re-not-prepared-for-an-ai-market-crash --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“Conceptual Rounding Errors” by Jan_Kulveit 6:21

לפני 9 weeks6:21

6:21

Epistemic status: Reasonably confident in the basic mechanism. Have you noticed that you keep encountering the same ideas over and over? You read another post, and someone helpfully points out it's just old Paul's idea again. Or Eliezer's idea. Not much progress here, move along. Or perhaps you've been on the other side: excitedly telling a friend about some fascinating new insight, only to hear back, "Ah, that's just another version of X." And something feels not quite right about that response, but you can't quite put your finger on it. I want to propose that while ideas are sometimes genuinely that repetitive, there's often a sneakier mechanism at play. I call it Conceptual Rounding Errors – when our mind's necessary compression goes a bit too far . Too much compression A Conceptual Rounding Error occurs when we encounter a new mental model or idea that's partially—but not fully—overlapping [...] --- Outline: (01:00) Too much compression (01:24) No, This Isnt The Old Demons Story Again (02:52) The Compression Trade-off (03:37) More of this (04:15) What Can We Do? (05:28) When It Matters --- First published: March 26th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FGHKwEGKCfDzcxZuj/conceptual-rounding-errors --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“Tracing the Thoughts of a Large Language Model” by Adam Jermyn 22:18

לפני 9 weeks22:18

22:18

[This is our blog post on the papers, which can be found at https://transformer-circuits.pub/2025/attribution-graphs/biology.html and https://transformer-circuits.pub/2025/attribution-graphs/methods.html.] Language models like Claude aren't programmed directly by humans—instead, they‘re trained on large amounts of data. During that training process, they learn their own strategies to solve problems. These strategies are encoded in the billions of computations a model performs for every word it writes. They arrive inscrutable to us, the model's developers. This means that we don’t understand how models do most of the things they do. Knowing how models like Claude think would allow us to have a better understanding of their abilities, as well as help us ensure that they’re doing what we intend them to. For example: Claude can speak dozens of languages. What language, if any, is it using "in its head"? Claude writes text one word at a time. Is it only focusing on predicting the [...] --- Outline: (06:02) How is Claude multilingual? (07:43) Does Claude plan its rhymes? (09:58) Mental Math (12:04) Are Claude's explanations always faithful? (15:27) Multi-step Reasoning (17:09) Hallucinations (19:36) Jailbreaks --- First published: March 27th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zsr4rWRASxwmgXfmq/tracing-the-thoughts-of-a-large-language-model --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article:…

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“Recent AI model progress feels mostly like bullshit” by lc 14:29

לפני 9 weeks14:29

14:29

About nine months ago, I and three friends decided that AI had gotten good enough to monitor large codebases autonomously for security problems. We started a company around this, trying to leverage the latest AI models to create a tool that could replace at least a good chunk of the value of human pentesters. We have been working on this project since since June 2024. Within the first three months of our company's existence, Claude 3.5 sonnet was released. Just by switching the portions of our service that ran on gpt-4o, our nascent internal benchmark results immediately started to get saturated. I remember being surprised at the time that our tooling not only seemed to make fewer basic mistakes, but also seemed to qualitatively improve in its written vulnerability descriptions and severity estimates. It was as if the models were better at inferring the intent and values behind our [...] --- Outline: (04:44) Are the AI labs just cheating? (07:22) Are the benchmarks not tracking usefulness? (10:28) Are the models smart, but bottlenecked on alignment? --- First published: March 24th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4mvphwx5pdsZLMmpY/recent-ai-model-progress-feels-mostly-like-bullshit --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts , or another podcast app.…

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[Linkpost] “Jaan Tallinn’s 2024 Philanthropy Overview” by jaan 1:17

לפני 5 weeks1:17

1:17

This is a link post. to follow up my philantropic pledge from 2020, i've updated my philanthropy page with the 2024 results. in 2024 my donations funded $51M worth of endpoint grants (plus $2.0M in admin overhead and philanthropic software development). this comfortably exceeded my 2024 commitment of $42M (20k times $2100.00 — the minimum price of ETH in 2024). this also concludes my 5-year donation pledge, but of course my philanthropy continues: eg, i’ve already made over $4M in endpoint grants in the first quarter of 2025 (not including 2024 grants that were slow to disburse), as well as pledged at least $10M to the 2025 SFF grant round. --- First published: April 23rd, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8ojWtREJjKmyvWdDb/jaan-tallinn-s-2024-philanthropy-overview Linkpost URL: https://jaan.info/philanthropy/#2024-results --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“Impact, agency, and taste” by benkuhn 15:17

לפני 5 weeks15:17

15:17

I’ve been thinking recently about what sets apart the people who’ve done the best work at Anthropic. You might think that the main thing that makes people really effective at research or engineering is technical ability, and among the general population that's true. Among people hired at Anthropic, though, we’ve restricted the range by screening for extremely high-percentile technical ability, so the remaining differences, while they still matter, aren’t quite as critical. Instead, people's biggest bottleneck eventually becomes their ability to get leverage—i.e., to find and execute work that has a big impact-per-hour multiplier. For example, here are some types of work at Anthropic that tend to have high impact-per-hour, or a high impact-per-hour ceiling when done well (of course this list is extremely non-exhaustive!): Improving tooling, documentation, or dev loops. A tiny amount of time fixing a papercut in the right way can save [...] --- Outline: (03:28) 1. Agency (03:31) Understand and work backwards from the root goal (05:02) Don't rely too much on permission or encouragement (07:49) Make success inevitable (09:28) 2. Taste (09:31) Find your angle (11:03) Think real hard (13:03) Reflect on your thinking --- First published: April 19th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DiJT4qJivkjrGPFi8/impact-agency-and-taste --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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[Linkpost] “To Understand History, Keep Former Population Distributions In Mind” by Arjun Panickssery 5:42

לפני 5 weeks5:42

5:42

This is a link post. Guillaume Blanc has a piece in Works in Progress (I assume based on his paper) about how France's fertility declined earlier than in other European countries, and how its power waned as its relative population declined starting in the 18th century. In 1700, France had 20% of Europe's population (4% of the whole world population). Kissinger writes in Diplomacy with respect to the Versailles Peace Conference: Victory brought home to France the stark realization that revanche had cost it too dearly, and that it had been living off capital for nearly a century. France alone knew just how weak it had become in comparison with Germany, though nobody else, especially not America, was prepared to believe it ... Though France's allies insisted that its fears were exaggerated, French leaders knew better. In 1880, the French had represented 15.7 percent of Europe's population. By 1900, that [...] --- First published: April 23rd, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gk2aJgg7yzzTXp8HJ/to-understand-history-keep-former-population-distributions Linkpost URL: https://arjunpanickssery.substack.com/p/to-understand-history-keep-former --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts , or another podcast app.…

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“AI-enabled coups: a small group could use AI to seize power” by Tom Davidson, Lukas Finnveden, rosehadshar 15:22

לפני 5 weeks15:22

15:22

We’ve written a new report on the threat of AI-enabled coups. I think this is a very serious risk – comparable in importance to AI takeover but much more neglected. In fact, AI-enabled coups and AI takeover have pretty similar threat models. To see this, here's a very basic threat model for AI takeover: Humanity develops superhuman AI Superhuman AI is misaligned and power-seeking Superhuman AI seizes power for itself And now here's a closely analogous threat model for AI-enabled coups: Humanity develops superhuman AI Superhuman AI is controlled by a small group Superhuman AI seizes power for the small group While the report focuses on the risk that someone seizes power over a country, I think that similar dynamics could allow someone to take over the world. In fact, if someone wanted to take over the world, their best strategy might well be to first stage an AI-enabled [...] --- Outline: (02:39) Summary (03:31) An AI workforce could be made singularly loyal to institutional leaders (05:04) AI could have hard-to-detect secret loyalties (06:46) A few people could gain exclusive access to coup-enabling AI capabilities (09:46) Mitigations (13:00) Vignette The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: April 16th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6kBMqrK9bREuGsrnd/ai-enabled-coups-a-small-group-could-use-ai-to-seize-power-1 --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article:…

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“Accountability Sinks” by Martin Sustrik 28:50

לפני 5 weeks28:50

28:50

Back in the 1990s, ground squirrels were briefly fashionable pets, but their popularity came to an abrupt end after an incident at Schiphol Airport on the outskirts of Amsterdam. In April 1999, a cargo of 440 of the rodents arrived on a KLM flight from Beijing, without the necessary import papers. Because of this, they could not be forwarded on to the customer in Athens. But nobody was able to correct the error and send them back either. What could be done with them? It's hard to think there wasn’t a better solution than the one that was carried out; faced with the paperwork issue, airport staff threw all 440 squirrels into an industrial shredder. [...] It turned out that the order to destroy the squirrels had come from the Dutch government's Department of Agriculture, Environment Management and Fishing. However, KLM's management, with the benefit of hindsight, said that [...] --- First published: April 22nd, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nYJaDnGNQGiaCBSB5/accountability-sinks --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts , or another podcast app.…

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“Training AGI in Secret would be Unsafe and Unethical” by Daniel Kokotajlo 10:46

לפני 5 weeks10:46

10:46

Subtitle: Bad for loss of control risks, bad for concentration of power risks I’ve had this sitting in my drafts for the last year. I wish I’d been able to release it sooner, but on the bright side, it’ll make a lot more sense to people who have already read AI 2027. There's a good chance that AGI will be trained before this decade is out. By AGI I mean “An AI system at least as good as the best human X’ers, for all cognitive tasks/skills/jobs X.” Many people seem to be dismissing this hypothesis ‘on priors’ because it sounds crazy. But actually, a reasonable prior should conclude that this is plausible.[1] For more on what this means, what it might look like, and why it's plausible, see AI 2027, especially the Research section. If so, by default the existence of AGI will be a closely guarded [...] The original text contained 8 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: April 18th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FGqfdJmB8MSH5LKGc/training-agi-in-secret-would-be-unsafe-and-unethical-1 --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“Why Should I Assume CCP AGI is Worse Than USG AGI?” by Tomás B. 1:15

לפני 6 weeks1:15

1:15

Though, given my doomerism, I think the natsec framing of the AGI race is likely wrongheaded, let me accept the Dario/Leopold/Altman frame that AGI will be aligned to the national interest of a great power. These people seem to take as an axiom that a USG AGI will be better in some way than CCP AGI. Has anyone written justification for this assumption? I am neither an American citizen nor a Chinese citizen. What would it mean for an AGI to be aligned with "Democracy" or "Confucianism" or "Marxism with Chinese characteristics" or "the American constitution" Contingent on a world where such an entity exists and is compatible with my existence, what would my life be as a non-citizen in each system? Why should I expect USG AGI to be better than CCP AGI? --- First published: April 19th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MKS4tJqLWmRXgXzgY/why-should-i-assume-ccp-agi-is-worse-than-usg-agi-1 --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“Surprising LLM reasoning failures make me think we still need qualitative breakthroughs for AGI” by Kaj_Sotala 35:51

לפני 6 weeks35:51

35:51

Introduction Writing this post puts me in a weird epistemic position. I simultaneously believe that: The reasoning failures that I'll discuss are strong evidence that current LLM- or, more generally, transformer-based approaches won't get us AGI As soon as major AI labs read about the specific reasoning failures described here, they might fix them But future versions of GPT, Claude etc. succeeding at the tasks I've described here will provide zero evidence of their ability to reach AGI. If someone makes a future post where they report that they tested an LLM on all the specific things I described here it aced all of them, that will not update my position at all. That is because all of the reasoning failures that I describe here are surprising in the sense that given everything else that they can do, you’d expect LLMs to succeed at all of these tasks. The [...] --- Outline: (00:13) Introduction (02:13) Reasoning failures (02:17) Sliding puzzle problem (07:17) Simple coaching instructions (09:22) Repeatedly failing at tic-tac-toe (10:48) Repeatedly offering an incorrect fix (13:48) Various people's simple tests (15:06) Various failures at logic and consistency while writing fiction (15:21) Inability to write young characters when first prompted (17:12) Paranormal posers (19:12) Global details replacing local ones (20:19) Stereotyped behaviors replacing character-specific ones (21:21) Top secret marine databases (23:32) Wandering items (23:53) Sycophancy (24:49) What's going on here? (32:18) How about scaling? Or reasoning models? --- First published: April 15th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sgpCuokhMb8JmkoSn/untitled-draft-7shu --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article:…

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“Frontier AI Models Still Fail at Basic Physical Tasks: A Manufacturing Case Study” by Adam Karvonen 21:00

לפני 6 weeks21:00

21:00

Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, recently worried about a world where only 30% of jobs become automated, leading to class tensions between the automated and non-automated. Instead, he predicts that nearly all jobs will be automated simultaneously, putting everyone "in the same boat." However, based on my experience spanning AI research (including first author papers at COLM / NeurIPS and attending MATS under Neel Nanda), robotics, and hands-on manufacturing (including machining prototype rocket engine parts for Blue Origin and Ursa Major), I see a different near-term future. Since the GPT-4 release, I've evaluated frontier models on a basic manufacturing task, which tests both visual perception and physical reasoning. While Gemini 2.5 Pro recently showed progress on the visual front, all models tested continue to fail significantly on physical reasoning. They still perform terribly overall. Because of this, I think that there will be an interim period where a significant [...] --- Outline: (01:28) The Evaluation (02:29) Visual Errors (04:03) Physical Reasoning Errors (06:09) Why do LLM's struggle with physical tasks? (07:37) Improving on physical tasks may be difficult (10:14) Potential Implications of Uneven Automation (11:48) Conclusion (12:24) Appendix (12:44) Visual Errors (14:36) Physical Reasoning Errors --- First published: April 14th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/r3NeiHAEWyToers4F/frontier-ai-models-still-fail-at-basic-physical-tasks-a --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts , or another podcast app.…

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“Negative Results for SAEs On Downstream Tasks and Deprioritising SAE Research (GDM Mech Interp Team Progress Update #2)” by Neel Nanda, lewis smith, Senthooran Rajamanoharan, Arthur Conmy, Callum… 57:32

לפני 7 weeks57:32

57:32

Audio note: this article contains 31 uses of latex notation, so the narration may be difficult to follow. There's a link to the original text in the episode description. Lewis Smith*, Sen Rajamanoharan*, Arthur Conmy, Callum McDougall, Janos Kramar, Tom Lieberum, Rohin Shah, Neel Nanda * = equal contribution The following piece is a list of snippets about research from the GDM mechanistic interpretability team, which we didn’t consider a good fit for turning into a paper, but which we thought the community might benefit from seeing in this less formal form. These are largely things that we found in the process of a project investigating whether sparse autoencoders were useful for downstream tasks, notably out-of-distribution probing. TL;DR To validate whether SAEs were a worthwhile technique, we explored whether they were useful on the downstream task of OOD generalisation when detecting harmful intent in user prompts [...] --- Outline: (01:08) TL;DR (02:38) Introduction (02:41) Motivation (06:09) Our Task (08:35) Conclusions and Strategic Updates (13:59) Comparing different ways to train Chat SAEs (18:30) Using SAEs for OOD Probing (20:21) Technical Setup (20:24) Datasets (24:16) Probing (26:48) Results (30:36) Related Work and Discussion (34:01) Is it surprising that SAEs didn't work? (39:54) Dataset debugging with SAEs (42:02) Autointerp and high frequency latents (44:16) Removing High Frequency Latents from JumpReLU SAEs (45:04) Method (45:07) Motivation (47:29) Modifying the sparsity penalty (48:48) How we evaluated interpretability (50:36) Results (51:18) Reconstruction loss at fixed sparsity (52:10) Frequency histograms (52:52) Latent interpretability (54:23) Conclusions (56:43) Appendix The original text contained 7 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: March 26th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4uXCAJNuPKtKBsi28/sae-progress-update-2-draft --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article:…

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[Linkpost] “Playing in the Creek” by Hastings 4:12

לפני 7 weeks4:12

4:12

This is a link post. When I was a really small kid, one of my favorite activities was to try and dam up the creek in my backyard. I would carefully move rocks into high walls, pile up leaves, or try patching the holes with sand. The goal was just to see how high I could get the lake, knowing that if I plugged every hole, eventually the water would always rise and defeat my efforts. Beaver behaviour. One day, I had the realization that there was a simpler approach. I could just go get a big 5 foot long shovel, and instead of intricately locking together rocks and leaves and sticks, I could collapse the sides of the riverbank down and really build a proper big dam. I went to ask my dad for the shovel to try this out, and he told me, very heavily paraphrasing, 'Congratulations. You've [...] --- First published: April 10th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rLucLvwKoLdHSBTAn/playing-in-the-creek Linkpost URL: https://hgreer.com/PlayingInTheCreek --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“Thoughts on AI 2027” by Max Harms 40:27

לפני 7 weeks40:27

40:27

This is part of the MIRI Single Author Series. Pieces in this series represent the beliefs and opinions of their named authors, and do not claim to speak for all of MIRI. Okay, I'm annoyed at people covering AI 2027 burying the lede, so I'm going to try not to do that. The authors predict a strong chance that all humans will be (effectively) dead in 6 years, and this agrees with my best guess about the future. (My modal timeline has loss of control of Earth mostly happening in 2028, rather than late 2027, but nitpicking at that scale hardly matters.) Their timeline to transformative AI also seems pretty close to the perspective of frontier lab CEO's (at least Dario Amodei, and probably Sam Altman) and the aggregate market opinion of both Metaculus and Manifold! If you look on those market platforms you get graphs like this: Both [...] --- Outline: (02:23) Mode ≠ Median (04:50) Theres a Decent Chance of Having Decades (06:44) More Thoughts (08:55) Mid 2025 (09:01) Late 2025 (10:42) Early 2026 (11:18) Mid 2026 (12:58) Late 2026 (13:04) January 2027 (13:26) February 2027 (14:53) March 2027 (16:32) April 2027 (16:50) May 2027 (18:41) June 2027 (19:03) July 2027 (20:27) August 2027 (22:45) September 2027 (24:37) October 2027 (26:14) November 2027 (Race) (29:08) December 2027 (Race) (30:53) 2028 and Beyond (Race) (34:42) Thoughts on Slowdown (38:27) Final Thoughts --- First published: April 9th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Yzcb5mQ7iq4DFfXHx/thoughts-on-ai-2027 --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts , or another podcast app.…

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“Short Timelines don’t Devalue Long Horizon Research” by Vladimir_Nesov 2:10

לפני 7 weeks2:10

2:10

Short AI takeoff timelines seem to leave no time for some lines of alignment research to become impactful. But any research rebalances the mix of currently legible research directions that could be handed off to AI-assisted alignment researchers or early autonomous AI researchers whenever they show up. So even hopelessly incomplete research agendas could still be used to prompt future capable AI to focus on them, while in the absence of such incomplete research agendas we'd need to rely on AI's judgment more completely. This doesn't crucially depend on giving significant probability to long AI takeoff timelines, or on expected value in such scenarios driving the priorities. Potential for AI to take up the torch makes it reasonable to still prioritize things that have no hope at all of becoming practical for decades (with human effort). How well AIs can be directed to advance a line of research [...] --- First published: April 9th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3NdpbA6M5AM2gHvTW/short-timelines-don-t-devalue-long-horizon-research --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“Alignment Faking Revisited: Improved Classifiers and Open Source Extensions” by John Hughes, abhayesian, Akbir Khan, Fabien Roger 41:04

לפני 7 weeks41:04

41:04

In this post, we present a replication and extension of an alignment faking model organism: Replication: We replicate the alignment faking (AF) paper and release our code. Classifier Improvements: We significantly improve the precision and recall of the AF classifier. We release a dataset of ~100 human-labelled examples of AF for which our classifier achieves an AUROC of 0.9 compared to 0.6 from the original classifier. Evaluating More Models: We find Llama family models, other open source models, and GPT-4o do not AF in the prompted-only setting when evaluating using our new classifier (other than a single instance with Llama 3 405B). Extending SFT Experiments: We run supervised fine-tuning (SFT) experiments on Llama (and GPT4o) and find that AF rate increases with scale. We release the fine-tuned models on Huggingface and scripts. Alignment faking on 70B: We find that Llama 70B alignment fakes when both using the system prompt in the [...] --- Outline: (02:43) Method (02:46) Overview of the Alignment Faking Setup (04:22) Our Setup (06:02) Results (06:05) Improving Alignment Faking Classification (10:56) Replication of Prompted Experiments (14:02) Prompted Experiments on More Models (16:35) Extending Supervised Fine-Tuning Experiments to Open-Source Models and GPT-4o (23:13) Next Steps (25:02) Appendix (25:05) Appendix A: Classifying alignment faking (25:17) Criteria in more depth (27:40) False positives example 1 from the old classifier (30:11) False positives example 2 from the old classifier (32:06) False negative example 1 from the old classifier (35:00) False negative example 2 from the old classifier (36:56) Appendix B: Classifier ROC on other models (37:24) Appendix C: User prompt suffix ablation (40:24) Appendix D: Longer training of baseline docs --- First published: April 8th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Fr4QsQT52RFKHvCAH/alignment-faking-revisited-improved-classifiers-and-open --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article:…

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“METR: Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks” by Zach Stein-Perlman 11:09

לפני 7 weeks11:09

11:09

Summary: We propose measuring AI performance in terms of the length of tasks AI agents can complete. We show that this metric has been consistently exponentially increasing over the past 6 years, with a doubling time of around 7 months. Extrapolating this trend predicts that, in under five years, we will see AI agents that can independently complete a large fraction of software tasks that currently take humans days or weeks. The length of tasks (measured by how long they take human professionals) that generalist frontier model agents can complete autonomously with 50% reliability has been doubling approximately every 7 months for the last 6 years. The shaded region represents 95% CI calculated by hierarchical bootstrap over task families, tasks, and task attempts. Full paper | Github repo We think that forecasting the capabilities of future AI systems is important for understanding and preparing for the impact of [...] --- Outline: (08:58) Conclusion (09:59) Want to contribute? --- First published: March 19th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/deesrjitvXM4xYGZd/metr-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article:…

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“Early Chinese Language Media Coverage of the AI 2027 Report: A Qualitative Analysis” by jeanne_, eeeee

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“Early Chinese Language Media Coverage of the AI 2027 Report: A Qualitative Analysis” by jeanne_, eeeee