MBP Ep 6: MBP Intelligence Roundtable: The Budget and What It Actually Signals

MBP Intelligence Briefing

In this episode Ben Woodfinden, Tyler Meredith, Ken Boessenkool, and Shannon Phillips unpack the new federal budget. They discuss

• The economic outlook and why Canada avoided recession even as growth falls

• Why this is a capital assets budget and what it asks of private investment

• The new fiscal anchors and how markets are reacting

• The political risk of long runway payoffs and how to show near-term impact

• Immigration levels cuts the hit to campuses and minimum wage pressure

• Defence spending and whether dollars stay in the Canadian industrial base

Key Takeaways

On the economic outlook

• WOODFINDEN: A budget that leans heavily on uncertainty and the upending of the global order

• MEREDITH Canada dodged a recession and the economy shows resilience even with weaker growth

• BOESSENKOOL Risks are still tilted to the downside and US trade turbulence could bite

• PHILLIPS This is industrial and capital focused not people focused which leaves exposure if the economy worsens

On what makes this budget different

• MEREDITH The document reads like a pension investor wrote it. Prioritizes asset class certainty and competitiveness over retail politics

• WOODFINDEN The government owns the productivity slump that predated Trump and is finally acknowledging it at least

• BOESSENKOOL A Bay Street style budget that pivots from program expansion to private investment

On immigration and provincial fallout

• WOODFINDEN The cut to international student permits is dramatic and will hit university and college finances

• MEREDITH Expect a tilt back to high skill intake while provinces scramble to fill revenue gaps

• PHILLIPS Lower intake will tighten low wage labour markets and push pressure onto minimum wage policy

On innovation and financial sector reform

• MEREDITH The budget packs major moves on competition banking and digital assets with more likely in the Bank Act review cycle

On defence

• WOODFINDEN Defence is the signature spend at eighty four billion over five years

• MEREDITH Procurement choices will decide how much of that spend stays in Canada

• PHILLIPS Recruitment and culture must improve or the money will not translate into people

MBP Intelligence Roundtable is produced by Metamorphosis Media Group for Meredith, Boessenkool & Phillips (MBP) Intelligence.Learn more or join the MBP membership for exclusive access to policy briefings and private roundtables at mbpintelligence.com.

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