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Sberbank CEO says Russian economy has hit ‘technical stagnation’ and warns of recession risk
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The Russian economy entered a period of “technical stagnation” in Q2 of 2025, Sberbank CEO German Gref said at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok on Wednesday.
“The second quarter can essentially be considered technical stagnation. July and August show fairly clear signs that we’re approaching zero growth,” Gref said, according to Russian news agency Interfax.
One key factor is the Central Bank’s key interest rate, he said. Sberbank estimates the rate, currently at 18 percent, will be lowered to 14 percent by the end of the year. But according to Gref, that’s not enough to revive the economy.
“At current inflation levels, the rate at which we can expect the economy to pick up would be 12 percent or lower. So once we get to those levels, that’s probably when we’ll see an economic recovery,” the Sberbank chief said.
“It’s important to get out of this period of controlled cooling so it doesn’t turn into stagnation. Restarting the economy later will be much harder than slowing it down now. […] Let’s hope the Central Bank doesn’t allow it to slip into a recession,” Gref told TASS.
The state of the Russian economy
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