009 | 2024年美国大选艾奥瓦冷清开场 Review of the Iowa Caucus

美轮美换 The American Roulette

【聊了什么】

2024年美国大选周期在冰冷的艾奥瓦州冷清开场，特朗普以压倒性优势轻松获胜。共和党初选距离变成垃圾时间可能仅剩一步之遥？

【会员计划】

美轮美换会员计划上线了！

加入会员计划的付费会员每周可以通过邮箱收到2-4篇newsletter，包含对美国政治、媒体、文化时事的解读，以及深度政治、政策分析，帮助你全方位了解美国。

会员计划在上线首个月有限时8折优惠，请通过以下链接进行订阅。

年付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/year

月付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/month

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感谢你对美轮美换的支持！

众筹平台链接：

• Patreon patreon.com/americanroulette
• 爱发电 https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette

合作投稿邮箱：[e-mail]

【时间轴】

00:47 艾奥瓦党团会议结果回顾

05:11 艾奥瓦州初选的历史和特殊性

12:00 特朗普、德桑蒂斯、黑莉和拉瓦斯瓦米在艾奥瓦的策略

23:55 展望新罕布什尔州初选

34:50 特朗普对共和党的绝对控制力

45:35 艾奥瓦州初选的赢家除了特朗普还有民调

更正：

39:05 Bob Dole在艾奥瓦大胜时间应该为1988年

42:00 出口民调中认为和自己“share the same value”最重要的选民中特朗普赢了40%

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

美轮美换的前身是“选·美 iAmElection”，一档由游天龙、talich、林垚、庄巧祎等人于2015年创立的中文播客，选·美聚集了一群关心美国政治的学者、律师、媒体人、观察者和爱好者，在2016年大选前后吸引了大量的听众和读者，成为一档现象级的播客。2020年大选前，talich等人重新推出了“美轮美换”，更新了16集。2023年，新一轮美国大选即将开始，我们决定将选·美和美轮美换的传统延续下去，推出新版的“美轮美换”播客。

我们的主播和嘉宾：

Talich：美国政治/文化历史爱好者

王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子

小华：媒体人，美政观察者

本期节目的制作人是小华，封面设计来自欢祺，本期的音频编辑是木七果。 美轮美换是一档由百花出品的播客，更多关于播客厂牌百花的信息请点击这里。

【 What We Talked About】

The 2024 U.S. Presidential Election cycle kicks off in the frosty backdrop of Iowa. Donald Trump secures the victory effortlessly with a significant margin. Is the Republican primary on the brink of becoming a mere formality?

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette

Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette

Business Inquiries and fan mail: [e-mail]

【Timeline】

00:47 Review of the Iowa caucus results

05:11 Why is Iowa so unique? Why is it first?

12:00 Strategies of Trump, DeSantis, Haley, and Ramaswamy in Iowa

23:55 Looking ahead to the New Hampshire primary

34:50 Trump's absolute control over the Republican Party

45:35 Winners of the Iowa Primaries: Trump and the polls

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

The American Roulette’s predecessor is “iAmElection”, a Chinese-language podcast created by Tianlong You, Talich, Yao Lin, and Qiaoy Zhuangi in 2015. The podcast brought together a group of scholars, lawyers, media veterans, observers and enthusiasts who care about American politics. At the height of its popularity, it was featured in the New York Times, and attracted an estimated 70,000 audience who listened each month. For the 2020 election, Talich and others relaunched the podcast as "美轮美换" with 16 new episodes.

In 2023, as the new round of U.S. presidential election is about to begin, we’re building on the legacy of “iAmElection” and “美轮美换” to launch a new podcast that we hope will become your go-to American Politics podcast. We introduce: “美轮美换 The American Roulette.”

Our Hosts and Guests:

Talich: U.S. politics, history, and culture enthusiast

王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information

小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer

This episode is produced by Xiaohua, cover design by Huanqi, our audio editor is Muqiguo. The American Roulette is a Baihua Media Podcast.

【拓展链接】

Iowa Poll: Nikki Haley overtakes Ron DeSantis; Donald Trump leads big (desmoinesregister.com)

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