Markets rocked as Sahm Rule ignited

NAB Morning Call

Monday 5th August 2024

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There was a strong response to the weaker than expected US payrolls numbers on Friday, not on the heals of weak manufacturing data. Markets will be sensitive to the Services today, in case it adds another blow to US growth and fuels more inflation speculation.

NAB’s Taylor Nugent says part of the concern is that Friday’s rise in unemployment, from 3.8% in March to 4.3% in June, meets the criteria for the Sahm Rule, which is seen as a stronger predictor of a forthcoming recession.

The news on Friday was felt across most asset classes, with equities in the US and Europe particularly feeling the hurt. Whilst the Fed might be scrambling to play catch-up on rate cuts, Huw Pill has suggested the Bank of England is still fighting inflation, and the RBA is expected to remain on hold tomorrow.

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