How Trump Won?

Narativ with Zev Shalev (Audio)

The Trump Campaign attracted some Black, Hispanic, and Jewish voters, says Carl Allen, author of "The Polls Weren't Wrong."

Trump's path to victory in 2024 wasn't through his base alone—it was through precision targeting of key demographic groups that traditionally lean Democratic. The margins were razor-thin, but the strategy was effective.

The Math

Trump started with his rock-solid 47-48% base. They needed new voters outside of their base. They targeted demographics in traditional democratic demos.

- Young Black men: Support doubled from 15% to 30%

- Hispanic men: Achieved majority support

- Jewish voters: Showed increased support amid Gaza conflict

"Trump didn't overwhelmingly win these groups," Allen explains. "He squeezed an extra 2-3% here and there. But 2% of a small group, plus 2% of another small group—it adds up."

The Perception Game

Perhaps most striking was how Trump won the economic narrative. Despite often vague policy proposals ("concepts of a plan," as Allen puts it), Trump successfully conveyed a simple message: he's better for jobs and wallets.

"We're reaching this point where perception outweighs policy," Allen notes. "The perception of a candidate's position is far more important than their actual policies."

The Democratic Dilemma

The interview reveals a sobering reality: Democratic policies on abortion, minimum wage, and economics poll well individually. Yet the party struggled to translate this into electoral victory.

In Wisconsin and Michigan, the final margins tell the story:

- Trump: ~49.5%

- Harris: Just under 49%

Pennsylvania saw Trump just over 50%, Harris at 48.5%.

Looking Forward

The data suggests this wasn't just an Electoral College victory—Trump appears positioned to win the popular vote for the first time since 2004. It's a watershed moment that demands Democratic soul-searching about messaging and voter outreach.

As Allen observes: "Traditional media is fading in importance... authentically reaching people, that's where podcasts have an advantage over things like commercials and mainstream cable news appearances."

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices