13 Keys to the White House: A Model for Predicting Presidential Elections w/ Allan Lichtman/Russia & Conflict-Related Sexual Violence Crimes w/ Kateryna Busol

Parallax Views w/ J.G. Michael

On this edition of Parallax Views we've got a double feature. In the first half hour of the program historian Allan Lichtman of American University discusses his The Keys to the White House model for predicting Presidential election. This model has proven extremely robust at getting election predictions right and is based on 13 true/false statements about the candidates and/or their parties preceding the election. According to the model, "If five or fewer of the following statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the election. If six or more are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose." We'll discuss a number of issues related to this election including Joe Biden recently dropping out of the election and Kamala Harris becoming the presumptive Democratic Party Presidential candidate. What does it entail for the election? Find out in this conversation with Allan Lichtman!

In the second segment of the show, a segment yours truly recorded a few months ago with Ukrainian lawyer Kateryna Busol. In a recent edition of the Journal of Genocide Studies, Busol penned a peice entitled "When the Head of State Makes Rape Jokes, His Troops Rape on the Ground: Conflict-Related Sexual Violence in Russia’s Aggression against Ukraine". We'll be discussing the issue of conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV) in relation the Russo-Ukrainian war, the worrying rhetoric of Timofey Sergeytsev's "What Should Russia Do With Ukraine?" that was published in Russian state-owned outlet RIA Novosti, reparations for victims of CRSV, Kateryna's work on destruction of cultural heritage in war, and the importance of applying international law to other issues like the Gaza War.