“Is An Inflation Regime Change Underway?”, Manoj Pradhan, Talking Heads Macro

The IRF Podcast

In 2020, Manoj Pradhan and Charles Goodhart produced a very influential book, which was entitled: “The Great Demographic Reversal – Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality and an Inflation Revival”. In their book they predicted that in the medium-term inflation would take off and that interest rates would increase in response to secular trends, such as ageing societies and deglobalisation. They argued that this revival of inflation would not be transitory.

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In this podcast, Manoj Pradhan assesses the importance of deglobalisation, supply chain constraints, labour shortages, productivity trends, A.I. and demographics for the inflation outlook. Manoj then discusses the extent to which these inflationary factors are coming into play in 2024-2025. He considers what this means for fiscal policies, monetary policies and for economic growth in the G7 economies in the longer run. Manoj discusses the implications for the financial markets in several of the main advanced economies and emerging markets. He concludes with an assessment of some of the best investment opportunities in the currency, bond and equity markets, as well as pointing out what he would avoid at present.

Talking Heads Macro (THM) was established in 2016 by Manoj and his Co-Founder, Charles Goodhart, the renowned former member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee and Professor at the London School of Economics. Using an outstanding mix of applied and academic thinking, their unique framework lets them develop perspectives on asset prices that traditional research completely misses. THM generates macroeconomic trade recommendations on a 6-12-month horizon by showing how current developments fit into longer-term themes.