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April 20, 2024 | Retail Sales, Value Companies, Home Owners Insurance and Pensions & Social Security
Manage episode 414080656 series 2879359
Retail Sales
People may be complaining about higher interest rates, but it does not appear to be slowing down the consumer. Retail sales climbed 0.7% in the month of March, which is easily topped the estimate of 0.3%. Compared to last year, sales were up an impressive 4.0%. Areas of strength continued to be nonstore retailers, which were up 11.3% compared to last year and food services and drinking places, which were up 6.5% over the same time period. Areas that continued to weigh on the report were furniture & home furnishing stores (-6.1%), electronics and appliance stores (-0.6%), and building material & garden equipment & supplies dealers (-0.6%). While energy prices have increased lately and gasoline stations saw an increase of 2.1% compared to February, compared to last year sales were actually down 0.7%. This makes the retail sales number even more impressive considering the fact that if gas stations were excluded from the headline number, it would have been up 4.4% compared to last year. Overall, this report provides further proof that the consumer remains resilient. This could bring into question the number of rates cuts this year. If the consumer remains strong, we may only see one or two cuts this year.
Value Companies
With the market’s recent highs, we have had a few companies that reached their target sell price. We sold those companies and now we’re sitting on a large amount of cash. We were considering investing into an oil and/or natural gas company because based on the valuations they are still not that expensive. One thing that has concerned me is that we are probably near the peak for gasoline consumption, but oil is also used in chemicals with a big demand coming from plastics. Approximately 102 million barrels of oil are produced every day and roughly 60 million barrels go to diesel, gasoline and jet fuel. Only 12 million of that ends up in chemicals. What concerned me even more is how all the oil companies like Chevron, Shell and Saudi Aramco have a big push to produce more for chemicals. For instance, Shell opened a chemical complex with capacity to produce about 1.6 million tons of plastic pellets per year. Saudi Aramco is working on turning 4 million barrels of crude oil per day into chemicals by the year 2030, today just 1 million barrels go into chemicals. For many years China has been a major consumer of plastic and they accounted for 70% of plastic demand. Now they are producing their own plastic capacity, which is exceeding demand. On top of all this, you have the push for recycling plastics and statistics show that only 10% or less of plastic gets recycled. Even a doubling of that over the next few years would mean less oil needed for plastics. Recycled plastics are roughly 50% more expensive than virgin plastic, but I believe that will come down in future years. In summary, at this point it does not make any sense that I can see to invest in an oil company or the chemical companies. It may look like they could be on sale, but with the large supply going forward sales and earnings could decline, which would mean they are currently fully priced. The abundance of plastics is estimated to go on until the year 2030. So…. the search for that great value company to add our portfolio continues!
Home Owners Insurance
You hear and read that insurance companies are dropping homeowners for no reason. Well, it turns out that insurance companies are becoming wiser on how to verify that policy owners are following the rules. To keep costs and risks down, insurance companies are now using drones, satellites, and airplanes to take aerial photos of your house. If you neglected to tell the insurance company that you have a pool, trampoline, a roof in bad shape or yard debris and hanging tree branches that are fire hazards, these will show up in the aerial views. You may think this is unfair, but when you sign your policy, you agree to home visits to verify that you’re telling the truth. Another question for consumers, is it fair for you to pay the same insurance premium with a brand-new roof then your next-door neighbor whose roof is 25 years old? At first thought it seems unfair that insurance companies can take pictures of your home from the sky, but if you neglected to tell them the truth about that pool or trampoline, maybe they have the right to drop you. In the long run, this could help insurance companies keep premiums lower for those who follow the rules and disclosed to the insurance company all the insurable risks that they have.
Avoiding Social Security Reductions Caused by Pensions
If you receive a pension from work that was not covered by Social Security, you may see a reduction in any Social Security benefits you are entitled to which includes benefits from your own earnings or any spousal benefits you are claiming. This is caused by the Windfall Elimination Provision and the Government Pension Offset. Keep in mind, if you earned a pension from a job where you also paid into Social Security, you will not see any reduction. One of the common pension systems we see in California is CalSTRS for teachers. Teachers do not pay into Social Security so their pension will reduce their Social Security amount. One way to get around this is by taking a “refund” from the pension. This allows you to withdraw all your contributions plus interest and roll them into your own retirement account so you can invest how you would like, and you will no longer have any reduction to your social security benefits, including any spousal benefits. The reason this works is because the refund only includes your own contributions, not the contributions made by the employer. This doesn’t work with all pensions as some lump sum options include employer contributions, so the same Social Security reduction would apply. Taking a refund from CalSTRS is not appropriate for everyone. If you are close to retirement or have been part of the CalSTRS system for many years, it likely makes sense to stay with it to receive your pension and any Social Security reduction that comes along with it. However, if you are younger, have a limited earnings history with CalSTRS, or are entitled to sizable Social Security Spousal or Survivor benefits, rolling over your CalSTRS pension to a retirement account may make sense so you get the benefit of both your pension dollars and Social Security.
Stocks Discussed: KBhomes (KBH), Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) and Boeing (BA)
281 פרקים
April 20, 2024 | Retail Sales, Value Companies, Home Owners Insurance and Pensions & Social Security
Manage episode 414080656 series 2879359
Retail Sales
People may be complaining about higher interest rates, but it does not appear to be slowing down the consumer. Retail sales climbed 0.7% in the month of March, which is easily topped the estimate of 0.3%. Compared to last year, sales were up an impressive 4.0%. Areas of strength continued to be nonstore retailers, which were up 11.3% compared to last year and food services and drinking places, which were up 6.5% over the same time period. Areas that continued to weigh on the report were furniture & home furnishing stores (-6.1%), electronics and appliance stores (-0.6%), and building material & garden equipment & supplies dealers (-0.6%). While energy prices have increased lately and gasoline stations saw an increase of 2.1% compared to February, compared to last year sales were actually down 0.7%. This makes the retail sales number even more impressive considering the fact that if gas stations were excluded from the headline number, it would have been up 4.4% compared to last year. Overall, this report provides further proof that the consumer remains resilient. This could bring into question the number of rates cuts this year. If the consumer remains strong, we may only see one or two cuts this year.
Value Companies
With the market’s recent highs, we have had a few companies that reached their target sell price. We sold those companies and now we’re sitting on a large amount of cash. We were considering investing into an oil and/or natural gas company because based on the valuations they are still not that expensive. One thing that has concerned me is that we are probably near the peak for gasoline consumption, but oil is also used in chemicals with a big demand coming from plastics. Approximately 102 million barrels of oil are produced every day and roughly 60 million barrels go to diesel, gasoline and jet fuel. Only 12 million of that ends up in chemicals. What concerned me even more is how all the oil companies like Chevron, Shell and Saudi Aramco have a big push to produce more for chemicals. For instance, Shell opened a chemical complex with capacity to produce about 1.6 million tons of plastic pellets per year. Saudi Aramco is working on turning 4 million barrels of crude oil per day into chemicals by the year 2030, today just 1 million barrels go into chemicals. For many years China has been a major consumer of plastic and they accounted for 70% of plastic demand. Now they are producing their own plastic capacity, which is exceeding demand. On top of all this, you have the push for recycling plastics and statistics show that only 10% or less of plastic gets recycled. Even a doubling of that over the next few years would mean less oil needed for plastics. Recycled plastics are roughly 50% more expensive than virgin plastic, but I believe that will come down in future years. In summary, at this point it does not make any sense that I can see to invest in an oil company or the chemical companies. It may look like they could be on sale, but with the large supply going forward sales and earnings could decline, which would mean they are currently fully priced. The abundance of plastics is estimated to go on until the year 2030. So…. the search for that great value company to add our portfolio continues!
Home Owners Insurance
You hear and read that insurance companies are dropping homeowners for no reason. Well, it turns out that insurance companies are becoming wiser on how to verify that policy owners are following the rules. To keep costs and risks down, insurance companies are now using drones, satellites, and airplanes to take aerial photos of your house. If you neglected to tell the insurance company that you have a pool, trampoline, a roof in bad shape or yard debris and hanging tree branches that are fire hazards, these will show up in the aerial views. You may think this is unfair, but when you sign your policy, you agree to home visits to verify that you’re telling the truth. Another question for consumers, is it fair for you to pay the same insurance premium with a brand-new roof then your next-door neighbor whose roof is 25 years old? At first thought it seems unfair that insurance companies can take pictures of your home from the sky, but if you neglected to tell them the truth about that pool or trampoline, maybe they have the right to drop you. In the long run, this could help insurance companies keep premiums lower for those who follow the rules and disclosed to the insurance company all the insurable risks that they have.
Avoiding Social Security Reductions Caused by Pensions
If you receive a pension from work that was not covered by Social Security, you may see a reduction in any Social Security benefits you are entitled to which includes benefits from your own earnings or any spousal benefits you are claiming. This is caused by the Windfall Elimination Provision and the Government Pension Offset. Keep in mind, if you earned a pension from a job where you also paid into Social Security, you will not see any reduction. One of the common pension systems we see in California is CalSTRS for teachers. Teachers do not pay into Social Security so their pension will reduce their Social Security amount. One way to get around this is by taking a “refund” from the pension. This allows you to withdraw all your contributions plus interest and roll them into your own retirement account so you can invest how you would like, and you will no longer have any reduction to your social security benefits, including any spousal benefits. The reason this works is because the refund only includes your own contributions, not the contributions made by the employer. This doesn’t work with all pensions as some lump sum options include employer contributions, so the same Social Security reduction would apply. Taking a refund from CalSTRS is not appropriate for everyone. If you are close to retirement or have been part of the CalSTRS system for many years, it likely makes sense to stay with it to receive your pension and any Social Security reduction that comes along with it. However, if you are younger, have a limited earnings history with CalSTRS, or are entitled to sizable Social Security Spousal or Survivor benefits, rolling over your CalSTRS pension to a retirement account may make sense so you get the benefit of both your pension dollars and Social Security.
Stocks Discussed: KBhomes (KBH), Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) and Boeing (BA)
281 פרקים
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1 Big Tech Companies Start to Struggle, GDP Report, College Students Starting Salary, Bitcoin (BTC-USD), Harrison Johnson, CFP® will be discussing The Augusta Rule 59:24
1 Streaming Services, Bonds and CA Legislation (calling for a 32-hour workweek for companies with more than 500 employees), Harrison Johnson, CFP®: Working smart, not hard 59:29
1 Inflation, CPI Report, March Retail Sales, General Motors, Ford, Toyota Stock, Russia/Ukraine Impacts Fertilizer and Harrison Johnson, CFP®– Tax Changes When You Get Married 59:24
1 Walt Disney (DIS), Index Investors, Nasdaq and Treasury Markets, Bitcoin Update, and Harrison Johnson, CFP®– “Generalized” Financial Advice 59:26
1 March 2022 Jobs Report, JOLTS, 401(k) Accounts, Yield Curve Inversion, and Harrison Johnson, CFP®: Financing with Higher Interest Rates 59:14
1 Apple’s New phone, Electric Planes, Energy Sources, the 10-Year Treasury and the Housing Market, Harrison Johnson, CFP®: Financing with Higher Interest Rates 59:41
1 Increases in the Economy, Oil Companies, Inflation & Consumers, and Harrison Johnson, CFP®: Early Retirement 59:28
1 SPACs, Oil Price Spikes, Tax on Big Oil Companies, and the JOLTS Report 58:59
1 Stocks, February Jobs Report, Harrison Johnson, CFP®: Beneficiary Designations 59:25
1 SEC, Tax Returns, Stop Loss Orders, The Future of Money, and What is a CFP? 59:25
1 Inflation, Household Debt, Oil, Federal Gas Tax Holiday and Harrison Johnson, CFP®: 401k Rollover 58:56
1 Oil and Gas Lines, Super Bowl Sunday, Trade Deficit, The Housing Market and Harrison Johnson, CFP® : The Time Value of Money 59:25
1 Jobs Report, Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL) and CFP® Harrison Johnson: Inheriting Annuities 59:27
1 GDP Report, Public Pension Funds, Oil Companies, CFP® Harrison Johnson: Inheriting Annuities 59:24
1 Peloton (PTON), Netflix (NFLX), Interest Rates 59:24
1 Big Tech Names, Bitcoin, Federal Reserve, Consumer Price Index (CPI) 59:28
1 International Business Machines Corporation (IBM), Starbucks (SBUX), Ford Motor Company (F), Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (LYV) 59:35
1 Real Estate, Stock Market and Bond Market 59:27
1 Small Business Lawsuits, Gifting Stocks 59:32
1 Jobs Report and CFP® Harrison Johnson: Power of Tax Deferred Growth 59:25
1 Options, Oil Reserves, Peloton, Inflation & Price of Oil 59:31
1 CFP® Harrison Johnson: Umbrella Insurance 59:32
1 Zillow (ZG) and Tax Consequences On Moving: Part 2 59:32
1 San Diego County Treasurer-Tax Collector, Dan McAllister discuss the Tax Collection Process 59:32
1 Harrison Johnson, CFP: Details of Life Insurance 59:31
1 General Motors (GM), Red Rock Resorts (RRR), Vishay Intertechnology (VSH) and Harrison Johnson, CFP: Refinancing before Retirement 59:30
1 Bonanza Creek Energy (BCEI), Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS), Amyris Inc. (AMRS), Harrison Johnson, CFP: Changes that are coming to Roth accounts 59:31
1 Microsoft (MSFT) and Harrison Johnson, CFP®: Income writer & their relationship with Annuities 1:59:17
1 Harrison Johnson, CFP: What to do with your Annuity 1:59:40
1 Jobs Report, SPAC, Real Estate, Screen Time, California, Nursing Jobs, & Consumer Confidence 1:59:10
1 Covid Relief, Reasons To Not Sell The Right Stocks, AMC Stock, Jobs Report 1:59:07
1 Margin Debt, Concerns with Apple, Growth in Retail Investors & Year-end Investment Advice 59:21
1 DoorDash, Ford, & China During The Pandemic 1:57:52
1 Positive Vaccine News, Holiday Shopping Sales, and Major Economic Highlights 59:17
1 Pfizer and BioNTech, Good Economic News, and Value Stocks 59:33
1 Tesla & GM Super Cruise, Positive Economic News, Payment Technology Changing The Way People Look At Using Cash 59:16
1 3 Reasons I Am Not Worried About This Election, Existing Home Sales and Interest Rates, The New GM HummerEV 59:32
1 JP Morgan Chase, Good News & Bad News with Retail Sales, Coca-Cola Tab, and Boeing 737 Max 59:33
1 The Wealth Gap, Headline Jobs Report & Consumer Confidence 59:32
1 Small Investors, Why The Current Stock Market is So Crazy and Volatile, Fintech vs. Traditional Banks 59:33
1 General Motors (GM) & The JOLTS Report 58:10
1 Tech Stocks, Real Estate, The Jobs Report 59:32
1 Auto Insurance Companies, Durable Goods, & Average Inflation Targeting 59:33
1 Retailers, Apple, Investing in Real Estate, & Homebuilders 59:33
1 Retail Sales Remain Strong, Small Local Businesses, & Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey(JOLTS) 58:56
1 Inflation, Fed Update, Employee Shortage, Woke, Charity, Unemployment, Samsung, & Eviction 1:59:06
1 Crocs (CROX), Amazon (AMZN), T-Mobile (TMUS), Harrison Johnson, CFP: When you should Retire 1:59:06
1 Politics, Pull-Back, Inflation Again, Paying Off Debt, Federal Debt, Union Politics, Business Credit, GE, & Job Openings 1:59:07
1 HarrisonJohnson, CFP: How Social Security Benefits Are Calculated 1:59:07
1 Disney (DIS), CPI, US Debt, Vaccines, Inflation, Car Accidents, Growth, WFH, and S&P 500 1:58:26
1 SAM, Back to School, Used Cars, Housing, Recession and Recovery, & Gas Prices 1:59:06
1 Big Business, Buying, Shipping, Inflation, Growth, PPI, Childcare Credit Payments, & Better Days 1:59:03
1 Toyota, Bacon, Buying Opportunity, Revenue, Rideshare, Robinhood, Home Price Index, S&P 500, & Gas Prices 1:59:11
1 Jobs Report, Down Payments, Independence Day, US Stocks, Solar, Debt/Wealth, Consumer Confidence, Re-Opening Winners & Clorox 1:58:59
1 Regulation, Oil, Autonomous Driving, FOMO, Music Streaming, Baby Boomers, Cars, & Prime Day 1:59:05
1 Tesla in China, More Inflation, Car Chips, Liquidity, & Increasing Rates 1:53:04
1 Ferrari, Fraud, Summer Jobs, Meme Investing, Increasing Prices, AMC, JOLTs, Movie Theaters, & Value Investing 1:59:04
1 Jobs Report, Gyms, Masks and Makeup, AMC, Cyberattacks, Zoom, & Travel 1:59:09
1 Financial Stocks, Inflation Investing, Bitcoin Price, COVID-19, Share Repurchases, & Dividends 1:58:56
1 Used Cars, Anti-Counterfeit, Buyer’s Remorse, Copper, Tariffs, SPAC, Tesla fighter, Unemployment, Lumber, & Small Business 1:59:05
1 Bitcoin, Gas, BLS, JOLTS, IRS, Earnings, WFH, Retail Sales, & Value Stocks 1:59:09
1 Crystal Ball, HighFlyers, Truck Drivers, Jobs Report, JOLTS, COVID Vaccine, More Money, Inflation 1:59:08
1 Car Loans, Bitcoin Hype, Low Cash, Inflation, & Levi’s 1:55:17
1 Housing Market, Crypto-Craze, Bitcoin Hype, Cruise lines, China’s GDP, & Ketchup sales 1:58:36
1 Infrastructure Spending, Investing in SPAC, SPAC Market, PPI (Producer Price Index) 1:59:07
1 March Job Reports, Price to Sales, The Crashing of Archegos Capital Management, Hedge Funds 1:59:06
1 Apple Stock (AAPL), SPAC Stock (SPAK), Cigarette Smoking Decrease 1:59:05
1 Growth in Stocks, Stock Investments, Oil Prices, Bitcoin + Price, Lab Grown Diamonds, Lower COVID Cases 1:58:35
1 Bitcoin, Opting Out, GE, Debt & Interest Rates, JOLTS, NFLX 1:59:06
1 Tesla’s Competition, Home Prices, Apple, Cathie Wood, Investing in Banks, & NFL Broadcast Rights 1:59:05
1 Robinhood, Tax Season for Unemployment, Sales Growth, and Chip Shortage 1:59:06
1 Employment, Younger Generation of Traders, KOSS Corporation (KOSS) 1:59:07
1 Allstate (ALL) , Jeff Bezos Stepping Down, GameStop (GME) 1:58:36
1 GameStop (GME), Earnings Season, Foreign Investment, Working From Home Trend 1:59:07
1 Government Debt, Tax Revenue to Pay Off Government Debt, New Home Construction & Building Permits 1:57:59
1 The Jobs Report & Jobless Claims, Credit Card Debt, Good News for Manufacturing Sector, & Online Retail Sales 59:33
1 Eastman Kodak (KODK), Social Security, & Retailers Filing Bankruptcy 59:32
1 6 Companies That Account for Nearly 41% of the Nasdaq Index, Sirius Satellite Radio, The Toy Industry, & Disney 59:26
1 S&P 500, Netflix, Retail Sales, Business Development Companies 59:20
1 Facebook Advertising Affecting Stock? Concerns with Coronavirus Fears Send Stock Market Lower, American Airlines 1:00:03
1 Homebuilder Sentiment, Investing in HERTZ, Dividend Stocks & the Housing Market 1:00:14
1 The Pandemic Costing the US Economy Trillions of Dollars, Investment Risks - Retail Investors, & Automobile Sales 59:58
1 May Jobs Report, Stocks During Tumultuous Time, Investors Be Cautious of Being Sold Exchange Traded Notes 59:57
1 Forbearance, Understanding Earnings, Why Investors Can Bet On The U.S. & The Details Behind the 2.1 People Filing Unemployment 1:00:00
1 Housing Market Reports, Positive News For Airlines & Restaurants Industry & 5G Investments 59:56
1 Life Insurance, Nasdaq & Uber Wants To Buy Grubhub - Using Shares 59:32
1 Economy Is Reopening, Investing In The Stock Market, & Peloton Stock 1:00:44
1 Tesla Stock, The Roaring 20's, & A Decline In Stock Prices of Big Chain Restaurants 1:00:13
1 Our Economy, Employment, and Marijuana Stocks 1:00:09
1 Will High Corporate Tax Rate Affect The Stock Market? US Retail Sales Report, Chipotle Is Now Offering Free College To Employee
1 Episode 38: US Tariffs On EU Goods – What This Means For The US Economy, The Trade War Is Much More Than Just Tariffs, Negotiations Continue Between G...
1 Episode 37: Job Market Remains Strong With Great Unemployment Numbers, Manufacturing May Be Slowing, But The Service Economy Looks Good – What Does Th...
1 Episode 36: Baby Boomers Stock Market Theory – Will Retirees Cause US Equities To Struggle Over The Next Decade?
1 Sienfeld Is Heading To Netflix & The Big Bang Theory Is Going To HBO, What Does This All Mean In The World Of Streaming?
1 Apple’s Release Event Seemed Uneventful, What Does This Mean For The Stock? WeWork Continues To See Its Valuation Slashed Pre IPO, Should The Company ...
1 Episode 32: Are You Making Retirement Harder Than It Needs To Be? What Should We Make Of The Jobs Report - Why You Shouldn’t Be Worried About Manufact...
1 Episode 32: Ulta Beauty Shows Why You Shouldn’t Chase Growth, Rights For NFL Games Are Coming Due – What’s This Mean For Media? Why India Could Pose A...
1 Episode 31: Watch Out For Total Bond Funds - You Could Be In For A Rude Awakening, Target Stock Jumps To An All Time High, Is Tesla Back In the News W...
1 Episode 30: The Inverted Yield Curve Has Come, Is A Recession Looming? Walmart Reports Strong Numbers, Is It Time To Buy? GE Shows Why Fundamental Ana...
1 Episode 29: Concerns With China Trade Talk Have Escalated, Where Do We Go From Here? Interest Rates Around The World Are Going Crazy, What Should You ...
1 Episode 28: Tariffs Against China Send Market Lower, Why We’re Not Afraid, Fed Cuts Interest Rates, Where Do We Go From Here & Job Market Remains Stro...
1 Now Is A Great Time To Be Investing! 59:58
1 Our Economy During Coronavirus Crisis 59:43
1 Coronavirus & The Stock Market 1:00:19
1 Investments in 2020 (Investments to avoid & consider in 2020), Different types of Financial Advisors, December 2019 Jobs Report
1 Microsoft, Apple, and The S&P500, The January Effect, Oil Prices Spike Over 3% - The Dow Dropped More Than 200 Points As Concerns Over The...
1 New Tech Companies – Be Cautious Of Overpaying, Online Sales Reach New Record Highs This Holiday Season, Increasing Employment Continues -...
1 Episode 43: Positive News For The Housing Market, Trade Talks: U.S. Imports & Vietnam, Charles Schwab Is In Talks To Buy Ameritrade
1 Episode 27: Facebook’s Fine Large Enough? Is Amazon Good Or Bad For The Consumer? Good GDP Report Reduces Fear Of Recession.
1 Episode 26: Why Equities Could Continue Their Recent Rally, Problems Continue In China, Merrill Lynch’s Major Lawsuit
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