“Recent AI model progress feels mostly like bullshit” by lc

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Food & Wine has led the conversation around food, drinks, and hospitality in America and around the world since 1978. Tinfoil Swans continues that legacy with a new series of intimate, informative, surprising, and uplifting conversations with the biggest names in the culinary industry, sharing never-before-heard stories about the successes, struggles, and fork-in-the-road moments that made them who they are today. Each week, you'll hear from icons and innovators like Daniel Boulud, Guy Fieri, Mashama Bailey, and Maneet Chauhan, going deep on their formative experiences, the dishes and meals that made them, their joys, doubts and dreams, and what's still on the menu for them. Tune in for a feast that'll feed your brain and soul — and plenty of wisdom and quotable morsels to savor later. New episodes every Tuesday.

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About nine months ago, I and three friends decided that AI had gotten good enough to monitor large codebases autonomously for security problems. We started a company around this, trying to leverage the latest AI models to create a tool that could replace at least a good chunk of the value of human pentesters. We have been working on this project since since June 2024.
Within the first three months of our company's existence, Claude 3.5 sonnet was released. Just by switching the portions of our service that ran on gpt-4o, our nascent internal benchmark results immediately started to get saturated. I remember being surprised at the time that our tooling not only seemed to make fewer basic mistakes, but also seemed to qualitatively improve in its written vulnerability descriptions and severity estimates. It was as if the models were better at inferring the intent and values behind our [...]
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Outline:
(04:44) Are the AI labs just cheating?
(07:22) Are the benchmarks not tracking usefulness?
(10:28) Are the models smart, but bottlenecked on alignment?
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First published:
March 24th, 2025
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4mvphwx5pdsZLMmpY/recent-ai-model-progress-feels-mostly-like-bullshit
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
---

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“Recent AI model progress feels mostly like bullshit” by lc

LessWrong (Curated & Popular)

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1
[Linkpost] “Social Anxiety Isn’t About Being Liked” by Chipmonk 5:23

לפני 3 hours5:23

5:23

This is a link post. There's this popular idea that socially anxious folks are just dying to be liked. It seems logical, right? Why else would someone be so anxious about how others see them? Show tweet And yet, being socially anxious tends to make you less likeable…they must be optimizing poorly, behaving irrationally, right? Maybe not. What if social anxiety isn’t about getting people to like you? What if it's about stopping them from disliking you? Show tweet Consider what can happen when someone has social anxiety (or self-loathing, self-doubt, insecurity, lack of confidence, etc.): They stoop or take up less space They become less agentic They make fewer requests of others They maintain fewer relationships, go out less, take fewer risks… If they were trying to get people to like them, becoming socially anxious would be an incredibly bad strategy. So what if they're not concerned with being likeable? [...] --- Outline: (01:18) What if what they actually want is to avoid being disliked? (02:11) Social anxiety is a symptom of risk aversion (03:46) What does this mean for your growth? --- First published: May 16th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wFC44bs2CZJDnF5gy/social-anxiety-isn-t-about-being-liked Linkpost URL: https://chrislakin.blog/social-anxiety --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article:…

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“Truth or Dare” by Duncan Sabien (Inactive) 2:03:21

לפני 22 hours2:03:21

2:03:21

Author's note: This is my apparently-annual "I'll put a post on LessWrong in honor of LessOnline" post. These days, my writing goes on my Substack. There have in fact been some pretty cool essays since last year's LO post. Structural note: Some essays are like a five-minute morning news spot. Other essays are more like a 90-minute lecture. This is one of the latter. It's not necessarily complex or difficult; it could be a 90-minute lecture to seventh graders (especially ones with the right cultural background). But this is, inescapably, a long-form piece, à la In Defense of Punch Bug or The MTG Color Wheel. It takes its time. It doesn’t apologize for its meandering (outside of this disclaimer). It asks you to sink deeply into a gestalt, to drift back and forth between seemingly unrelated concepts until you start to feel the way those concepts weave together [...] --- Outline: (02:30) 0. Introduction (10:08) A list of truths and dares (14:34) Act I (14:37) Scene I: How The Water Tastes To The Fishes (22:38) Scene II: The Chip on Mitchell's Shoulder (28:17) Act II (28:20) Scene I: Bent Out Of Shape (41:26) Scene II: Going Stag, But Like ... Together? (48:31) Scene III: Patterns, Projections, and Preconceptions (01:02:04) Interlude: The Sound of One Hand Clapping (01:05:45) Act III (01:05:56) Scene I: Memetic Traps (Or, The Battle for the Soul of Morty Smith) (01:27:16) Scene II: The problem with Rhonda Byrne's 2006 bestseller The Secret (01:32:39) Scene III: Escape velocity (01:42:26) Act IV (01:42:29) Scene I: Boy, putting Zack Davis's name in a header will probably have Effects, huh (01:44:08) Scene II: Whence Wholesomeness? --- First published: May 29th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TQ4AXj3bCMfrNPTLf/truth-or-dare --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article:…

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“Meditations on Doge” by Martin Sustrik 17:57

לפני יומיים17:57

17:57

Lessons from shutting down institutions in Eastern Europe. This is a cross post from: https://250bpm.substack.com/p/meditations-on-doge Imagine living in the former Soviet republic of Georgia in early 2000's: All marshrutka [mini taxi bus] drivers had to have a medical exam every day to make sure they were not drunk and did not have high blood pressure. If a driver did not display his health certificate, he risked losing his license. By the time Shevarnadze was in power there were hundreds, probably thousands , of marshrutkas ferrying people all over the capital city of Tbilisi. Shevernadze's government was detail-oriented not only when it came to taxi drivers. It decided that all the stalls of petty street-side traders had to conform to a particular architectural design. Like marshrutka drivers, such traders had to renew their licenses twice a year. These regulations were only the tip of the iceberg. Gas [...] --- First published: May 25th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Zhp2Xe8cWqDcf2rsY/meditations-on-doge --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts , or another podcast app.…

1
[Linkpost] “If you’re not sure how to sort a list or grid—seriate it!” by gwern 4:37

לפני 3 ימים4:37

4:37

This is a link post. "Getting Things in Order: An Introduction to the R Package seriation": Seriation [or "ordination"), i.e., finding a suitable linear order for a set of objects given data and a loss or merit function, is a basic problem in data analysis. Caused by the problem's combinatorial nature, it is hard to solve for all but very small sets. Nevertheless, both exact solution methods and heuristics are available. In this paper we present the package seriation which provides an infrastructure for seriation with R. The infrastructure comprises data structures to represent linear orders as permutation vectors, a wide array of seriation methods using a consistent interface, a method to calculate the value of various loss and merit functions, and several visualization techniques which build on seriation. To illustrate how easily the package can be applied for a variety of applications, a comprehensive collection of [...] --- First published: May 28th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/u2ww8yKp9xAB6qzcr/if-you-re-not-sure-how-to-sort-a-list-or-grid-seriate-it Linkpost URL: https://www.jstatsoft.org/article/download/v025i03/227 --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“What We Learned from Briefing 70+ Lawmakers on the Threat from AI” by leticiagarcia 31:47

לפני 4 ימים31:47

31:47

Between late 2024 and mid-May 2025, I briefed over 70 cross-party UK parliamentarians. Just over one-third were MPs, a similar share were members of the House of Lords, and just under one-third came from devolved legislatures — the Scottish Parliament, the Senedd, and the Northern Ireland Assembly. I also held eight additional meetings attended exclusively by parliamentary staffers. While I delivered some briefings alone, most were led by two members of our team. I did this as part of my work as a Policy Advisor with ControlAI, where we aim to build common knowledge of AI risks through clear, honest, and direct engagement with parliamentarians about both the challenges and potential solutions. To succeed at scale in managing AI risk, it is important to continue to build this common knowledge. For this reason, I have decided to share what I have learned over the past few months publicly, in [...] --- Outline: (01:37) (i) Overall reception of our briefings (04:21) (ii) Outreach tips (05:45) (iii) Key talking points (14:20) (iv) Crafting a good pitch (19:23) (v) Some challenges (23:07) (vi) General tips (28:57) (vii) Books & media articles --- First published: May 27th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Xwrajm92fdjd7cqnN/what-we-learned-from-briefing-70-lawmakers-on-the-threat --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“Winning the power to lose” by KatjaGrace 3:32

לפני 9 ימים3:32

3:32

Have the Accelerationists won? Last November Kevin Roose announced that those in favor of going fast on AI had now won against those favoring caution, with the reinstatement of Sam Altman at OpenAI. Let's ignore whether Kevin's was a good description of the world, and deal with a more basic question: if it were so—i.e. if Team Acceleration would control the acceleration from here on out—what kind of win was it they won? It seems to me that they would have probably won in the same sense that your dog has won if she escapes onto the road. She won the power contest with you and is probably feeling good at this moment, but if she does actually like being alive, and just has different ideas about how safe the road is, or wasn’t focused on anything so abstract as that, then whether she ultimately wins or [...] --- First published: May 20th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h45ngW5guruD7tS4b/winning-the-power-to-lose --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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[Linkpost] “Gemini Diffusion: watch this space” by Yair Halberstadt 2:16

לפני 10 ימים2:16

2:16

This is a link post. Google Deepmind has announced Gemini Diffusion. Though buried under a host of other IO announcements it's possible that this is actually the most important one! This is significant because diffusion models are entirely different to LLMs. Instead of predicting the next token, they iteratively denoise all the output tokens until it produces a coherent result. This is similar to how image diffusion models work. I've tried they results and they are surprisingly good! It's incredibly fast, averaging nearly 1000 tokens a second. And it one shotted my Google interview question, giving a perfect response in 2 seconds (though it struggled a bit on the followups). It's nowhere near as good as Gemini 2.5 pro, but it knocks ChatGPT 3 out the water. If we'd seen this 3 years ago we'd have been mind blown. Now this is wild for two reasons: We now have [...] --- First published: May 20th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MZvtRqWnwokTub9sH/gemini-diffusion-watch-this-space Linkpost URL: https://deepmind.google/models/gemini-diffusion/ --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“AI Doomerism in 1879” by David Gross 13:05

לפני 11 ימים13:05

13:05

I’m reading George Eliot's Impressions of Theophrastus Such (1879)—so far a snoozer compared to her novels. But chapter 17 surprised me for how well it anticipated modern AI doomerism. In summary, Theophrastus is in conversation with Trost, who is an optimist about the future of automation and how it will free us from drudgery and permit us to further extend the reach of the most exalted human capabilities. Theophrastus is more concerned that automation is likely to overtake, obsolete, and atrophy human ability. Among Theophrastus's concerns: People will find that they no longer can do labor that is valuable enough to compete with the machines. This will eventually include intellectual labor, as we develop for example “a machine for drawing the right conclusion, which will doubtless by-and-by be improved into an automaton for finding true premises.” Whereupon humanity will finally be transcended and superseded by its own creation [...] --- Outline: (02:05) Impressions of Theophrastus Such (02:09) Chapter XVII: Shadows of the Coming Race --- First published: May 13th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DFyoYHhbE8icgbTpe/ai-doomerism-in-1879 --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“Consider not donating under $100 to political candidates” by DanielFilan 2:01

לפני 15 ימים2:01

2:01

Epistemic status: thing people have told me that seems right. Also primarily relevant to US audiences. Also I am speaking in my personal capacity and not representing any employer, present or past. Sometimes, I talk to people who work in the AI governance space. One thing that multiple people have told me, which I found surprising, is that there is apparently a real problem where people accidentally rule themselves out of AI policy positions by making political donations of small amounts—in particular, under $10. My understanding is that in the United States, donations to political candidates are a matter of public record, and that if you donate to candidates of one party, this might look bad if you want to gain a government position when another party is in charge. Therefore, donating approximately $3 can significantly damage your career, while not helping your preferred candidate all that [...] --- First published: May 11th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tz43dmLAchxcqnDRA/consider-not-donating-under-usd100-to-political-candidates --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“It’s Okay to Feel Bad for a Bit” by moridinamael 5:51

לפני 16 ימים5:51

5:51

"If you kiss your child, or your wife, say that you only kiss things which are human, and thus you will not be disturbed if either of them dies." - Epictetus "Whatever suffering arises, all arises due to attachment; with the cessation of attachment, there is the cessation of suffering." - Pali canon "He is not disturbed by loss, he does not delight in gain; he is not disturbed by blame, he does not delight in praise; he is not disturbed by pain, he does not delight in pleasure; he is not disturbed by dishonor, he does not delight in honor." - Pali Canon (Majjhima Nikaya) "An arahant would feel physical pain if struck, but no mental pain. If his mother died, he would organize the funeral, but would feel no grief, no sense of loss." - the Dhammapada "Receive without pride, let go without attachment." - Marcus Aurelius [...] --- First published: May 10th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aGnRcBk4rYuZqENug/it-s-okay-to-feel-bad-for-a-bit --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“Explaining British Naval Dominance During the Age of Sail” by Arjun Panickssery 8:52

לפני 17 ימים8:52

8:52

The other day I discussed how high monitoring costs can explain the emergence of “aristocratic” systems of governance: Aristocracy and Hostage Capital Arjun Panickssery · Jan 8 There's a conventional narrative by which the pre-20th century aristocracy was the "old corruption" where civil and military positions were distributed inefficiently due to nepotism until the system was replaced by a professional civil service after more enlightened thinkers prevailed ... An element of Douglas Allen's argument that I didn’t expand on was the British Navy. He has a separate paper called “The British Navy Rules” that goes into more detail on why he thinks institutional incentives made them successful from 1670 and 1827 (i.e. for most of the age of fighting sail). In the Seven Years’ War (1756–1763) the British had a 7-to-1 casualty difference in single-ship actions. During the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars (1793–1815) the British had a 5-to-1 [...] --- First published: March 28th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YE4XsvSFJiZkWFtFE/explaining-british-naval-dominance-during-the-age-of-sail --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts , or another podcast app.…

1
“Eliezer and I wrote a book: If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies” by So8res 6:42

לפני 17 ימים6:42

6:42

Eliezer and I wrote a book. It's titled If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies. Unlike a lot of other writing either of us have done, it's being professionally published. It's hitting shelves on September 16th. It's a concise (~60k word) book aimed at a broad audience. It's been well-received by people who received advance copies, with some endorsements including: The most important book I've read for years: I want to bring it to every political and corporate leader in the world and stand over them until they've read it. Yudkowsky and Soares, who have studied AI and its possible trajectories for decades, sound a loud trumpet call to humanity to awaken us as we sleepwalk into disaster. - Stephen Fry, actor, broadcaster, and writer If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies may prove to be the most important book of our time. Yudkowsky and Soares believe [...] The original text contained 1 footnote which was omitted from this narration. --- First published: May 14th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iNsy7MsbodCyNTwKs/eliezer-and-i-wrote-a-book-if-anyone-builds-it-everyone-dies --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“Too Soon” by Gordon Seidoh Worley 8:19

לפני 18 ימים8:19

8:19

It was a cold and cloudy San Francisco Sunday. My wife and I were having lunch with friends at a Korean cafe. My phone buzzed with a text. It said my mom was in the hospital. I called to find out more. She had a fever, some pain, and had fainted. The situation was serious, but stable. Monday was a normal day. No news was good news, right? Tuesday she had seizures. Wednesday she was in the ICU. I caught the first flight to Tampa. Thursday she rested comfortably. Friday she was diagnosed with bacterial meningitis, a rare condition that affects about 3,000 people in the US annually. The doctors had known it was a possibility, so she was already receiving treatment. We stayed by her side through the weekend. My dad spent every night with her. We made plans for all the fun things we would when she [...] --- First published: May 13th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/reo79XwMKSZuBhKLv/too-soon --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts , or another podcast app.…

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“PSA: The LessWrong Feedback Service” by JustisMills 4:34

לפני 19 ימים4:34

4:34

At the bottom of the LessWrong post editor, if you have at least 100 global karma, you may have noticed this button. The button Many people click the button, and are jumpscared when it starts an Intercom chat with a professional editor (me), asking what sort of feedback they'd like. So, that's what it does. It's a summon Justis button. Why summon Justis? To get feedback on your post, of just about any sort. Typo fixes, grammar checks, sanity checks, clarity checks, fit for LessWrong, the works. If you use the LessWrong editor (as opposed to the Markdown editor) I can leave comments and suggestions directly inline. I also provide detailed narrative feedback (unless you explicitly don't want this) in the Intercom chat itself. The feedback is totally without pressure. You can throw it all away, or just keep the bits you like. Or use it all! In any case [...] --- Outline: (00:35) Why summon Justis? (01:19) Why Justis in particular? (01:48) Am I doing it right? (01:59) How often can I request feedback? (02:22) Can I use the feature for linkposts/crossposts? (02:49) What if I click the button by mistake? (02:59) Should I credit you? (03:16) Couldnt I just use an LLM? (03:48) Why does Justis do this? --- First published: May 12th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bkDrfofLMKFoMGZkE/psa-the-lesswrong-feedback-service --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts , or another podcast app.…

1
“Orienting Toward Wizard Power” by johnswentworth 8:20

לפני 24 ימים8:20

8:20

For months, I had the feeling: something is wrong. Some core part of myself had gone missing. I had words and ideas cached, which pointed back to the missing part. There was the story of Benjamin Jesty, a dairy farmer who vaccinated his family against smallpox in 1774 - 20 years before the vaccination technique was popularized, and the same year King Louis XV of France died of the disease. There was another old post which declared “I don’t care that much about giant yachts. I want a cure for aging. I want weekend trips to the moon. I want flying cars and an indestructible body and tiny genetically-engineered dragons.”. There was a cached instinct to look at certain kinds of social incentive gradient, toward managing more people or growing an organization or playing social-political games, and say “no, it's a trap”. To go… in a different direction, orthogonal [...] --- Outline: (01:19) In Search of a Name (04:23) Near Mode --- First published: May 8th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Wg6ptgi2DupFuAnXG/orienting-toward-wizard-power --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“Recent AI model progress feels mostly like bullshit” by lc

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“Recent AI model progress feels mostly like bullshit” by lc