“Tracing the Thoughts of a Large Language Model” by Adam Jermyn

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LIVE: Before the Chorus & Open Folk Present: In These Lines feat. Gaby Moreno, Lily Kershaw & James Spaite 33:58

לפני 12 ימים33:58

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On June 25th 2025, in collaboration with Open Folk, we presented our first ever live interview event in Los Angeles. As Open Folk put it: "In These Lines is a live event where three artists each bring one song — not just to perform, but to explore. They sit down with Sofia Loporcaro, host of Before The Chorus, to talk about where the song came from, what it meant to write it, and what it still holds. Then they play it. Just the song, and the truth behind it." Find Open Folk on Instagram: @openfolkla Find Gaby on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/artist/0K9pSmFx0kWESA9jqx8aCW?si=Wz4RUP88Qlm_RKs7QTLvWQ On Apple Music: https://music.apple.com/us/artist/gaby-moreno/472697737 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/gaby_moreno/ Find Lily on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/artist/0p0ksmwMDQlAM24TWKu4Ua?si=Bmdg-uIUTHu-zRUc_dqL3g On Apple Music: https://music.apple.com/us/artist/lily-kershaw/526884610 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lilykershaw/ Find James on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/artist/3u50TPoLvMBXNT1KrLa3iT?si=OoLoq7ZTRZyUiytQcz0FsQ On Apple Music: https://music.apple.com/us/artist/james-spaite/905076868 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/jamesspaite/ Subscribe: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://beforethechorus.bio.to/listen⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Sign up for our newsletter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.beforethechorus.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow on Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@beforethechoruspodcast⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ & ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@soundslikesofia⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ About the podcast: Welcome to Before the Chorus , where we go beyond the sounds of our favourite songs to hear the stories of the artists who wrote them. Before a song is released, a record is produced, or a chorus is written, the musicians that write them think. A lot. They live. A lot. And they feel. A LOT. Hosted by award-winning interviewer Sofia Loporcaro, Before the Chorus explores the genuine human experiences behind the music. Sofia’s deep knowledge of music and personal journey with mental health help her connect with artists on a meaningful level. This is a space where fans connect with artists, and listeners from all walks of life feel seen through the stories that shape the music we love. About the host: Sofia Loporcaro is an award-winning interviewer and radio host who’s spent over 8 years helping musicians share their stories. She’s hosted shows for Amazing Radio, and Transmission Roundhouse. Now on Before the Chorus, she’s had the chance to host guests like Glass Animals, Feist, Madison Cunningham, Mick Jenkins, & Ru Paul's Drag Race winner Shea Couleé. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices…

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[This is our blog post on the papers, which can be found at https://transformer-circuits.pub/2025/attribution-graphs/biology.html and https://transformer-circuits.pub/2025/attribution-graphs/methods.html.]
Language models like Claude aren't programmed directly by humans—instead, they‘re trained on large amounts of data. During that training process, they learn their own strategies to solve problems. These strategies are encoded in the billions of computations a model performs for every word it writes. They arrive inscrutable to us, the model's developers. This means that we don’t understand how models do most of the things they do.
Knowing how models like Claude think would allow us to have a better understanding of their abilities, as well as help us ensure that they’re doing what we intend them to. For example:

Claude can speak dozens of languages. What language, if any, is it using "in its head"?
Claude writes text one word at a time. Is it only focusing on predicting the [...]

---
Outline:
(06:02) How is Claude multilingual?
(07:43) Does Claude plan its rhymes?
(09:58) Mental Math
(12:04) Are Claude's explanations always faithful?
(15:27) Multi-step Reasoning
(17:09) Hallucinations
(19:36) Jailbreaks
---
First published:
March 27th, 2025
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zsr4rWRASxwmgXfmq/tracing-the-thoughts-of-a-large-language-model
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
---

Images from the article:

Simplified diagram showing multilingual concept mapping between

Semantic parsing diagram showing relationships between words in a sentence.

Conversation showing explanation of basic addition using standard algorithm.

Diagram showing three variations of a rhyming couplet about a carrot.

Flowchart showing step-by-step square root calculation with mathematical reasoning.

Two flowchart diagrams comparing responses for Michael Jordan and Michael Batkin queries.

The image shows a flowchart illustrating

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“Tracing the Thoughts of a Large Language Model” by Adam Jermyn

LessWrong (Curated & Popular)

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Claude can speak dozens of languages. What language, if any, is it using "in its head"?
Claude writes text one word at a time. Is it only focusing on predicting the [...]

Images from the article:

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“Do confident short timelines make sense?” by TsviBT, abramdemski 2:10:59

לפני 19 hours2:10:59

2:10:59

TsviBT Tsvi's context Some context: My personal context is that I care about decreasing existential risk, and I think that the broad distribution of efforts put forward by X-deriskers fairly strongly overemphasizes plans that help if AGI is coming in <10 years, at the expense of plans that help if AGI takes longer. So I want to argue that AGI isn't extremely likely to come in <10 years. I've argued against some intuitions behind AGI-soon in Views on when AGI comes and on strategy to reduce existential risk. Abram, IIUC, largely agrees with the picture painted in AI 2027: https://ai-2027.com/ Abram and I have discussed this occasionally, and recently recorded a video call. I messed up my recording, sorry--so the last third of the conversation is cut off, and the beginning is cut off. Here's a link to the first point at which [...] --- Outline: (00:17) Tsvis context (06:52) Background Context: (08:13) A Naive Argument: (08:33) Argument 1 (10:43) Why continued progress seems probable to me anyway: (13:37) The Deductive Closure: (14:32) The Inductive Closure: (15:43) Fundamental Limits of LLMs? (19:25) The Whack-A-Mole Argument (23:15) Generalization, Size, & Training (26:42) Creativity & Originariness (32:07) Some responses (33:15) Automating AGI research (35:03) Whence confidence? (36:35) Other points (48:29) Timeline Split? (52:48) Line Go Up? (01:15:16) Some Responses (01:15:27) Memers gonna meme (01:15:44) Right paradigm? Wrong question. (01:18:14) The timescale characters of bioevolutionary design vs. DL research (01:20:33) AGI LP25 (01:21:31) come on people, its \[Current Paradigm\] and we still dont have AGI?? (01:23:19) Rapid disemhorsepowerment (01:25:41) Miscellaneous responses (01:28:55) Big and hard (01:31:03) Intermission (01:31:19) Remarks on gippity thinkity (01:40:24) Assorted replies as I read: (01:40:28) Paradigm (01:41:33) Bio-evo vs DL (01:42:18) AGI LP25 (01:46:30) Rapid disemhorsepowerment (01:47:08) Miscellaneous (01:48:42) Magenta Frontier (01:54:16) Considered Reply (01:54:38) Point of Departure (02:00:25) Tsvis closing remarks (02:04:16) Abrams Closing Thoughts --- First published: July 15th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5tqFT3bcTekvico4d/do-confident-short-timelines-make-sense --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article:…

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“HPMOR: The (Probably) Untold Lore” by Gretta Duleba, Eliezer Yudkowsky 1:07:32

לפני 1 day1:07:32

1:07:32

Eliezer and I love to talk about writing. We talk about our own current writing projects, how we’d improve the books we’re reading, and what we want to write next. Sometimes along the way I learn some amazing fact about HPMOR or Project Lawful or one of Eliezer's other works. “Wow, you’re kidding,” I say, “do your fans know this? I think people would really be interested.” “I can’t remember,” he usually says. “I don’t think I’ve ever explained that bit before, I’m not sure.” I decided to interview him more formally, collect as many of those tidbits about HPMOR as I could, and share them with you. I hope you enjoy them. It's probably obvious, but there will be many, many spoilers for HPMOR in this article, and also very little of it will make sense if you haven’t read the book. So go read Harry Potter and [...] --- Outline: (01:49) Characters (01:52) Masks (09:09) Imperfect Characters (20:07) Make All the Characters Awesome (22:24) Hermione as Mary Sue (26:35) Who's the Main Character? (31:11) Plot (31:14) Characters interfering with plot (35:59) Setting up Plot Twists (38:55) Time-Turner Plots (40:51) Slashfic? (45:42) Why doesnt Harry like-like Hermione? (49:36) Setting (49:39) The Truth of Magic in HPMOR (52:54) Magical Genetics (57:30) An Aside: What did Harry Figure Out? (01:00:33) Nested Nerfing Hypothesis (01:04:55) Epilogues The original text contained 26 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: July 25th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FY697dJJv9Fq3PaTd/hpmor-the-probably-untold-lore --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article:…

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“On ‘ChatGPT Psychosis’ and LLM Sycophancy” by jdp 30:05

לפני יומיים30:05

30:05

As a person who frequently posts about large language model psychology I get an elevated rate of cranks and schizophrenics in my inbox. Often these are well meaning people who have been spooked by their conversations with ChatGPT (it's always ChatGPT specifically) and want some kind of reassurance or guidance or support from me. I'm also in the same part of the social graph as the "LLM whisperers" (eugh) that Eliezer Yudkowsky described as "insane", and who in many cases are in fact insane. This means I've learned what "psychosis but with LLMs" looks like and kind of learned to tune it out. This new case with Geoff Lewis interests me though. Mostly because of the sheer disparity between what he's being entranced by and my automatic immune reaction to it. I haven't even read all the screenshots he posted because I take one glance and know that this [...] --- Outline: (05:03) Timeline Of Events Related To ChatGPT Psychosis (16:16) What Causes ChatGPT Psychosis? (16:27) Ontological Vertigo (21:02) Users Are Confused About What Is And Isnt An Official Feature (24:30) The Models Really Are Way Too Sycophantic (27:03) The Memory Feature (28:54) Loneliness And Isolation --- First published: July 23rd, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/f86hgR5ShiEj4beyZ/on-chatgpt-psychosis-and-llm-sycophancy --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“Subliminal Learning: LLMs Transmit Behavioral Traits via Hidden Signals in Data” by cloud, mle, Owain_Evans 10:00

לפני 4 ימים10:00

10:00

Authors: Alex Cloud*, Minh Le*, James Chua, Jan Betley, Anna Sztyber-Betley, Jacob Hilton, Samuel Marks, Owain Evans (*Equal contribution, randomly ordered) tl;dr. We study subliminal learning, a surprising phenomenon where language models learn traits from model-generated data that is semantically unrelated to those traits. For example, a "student" model learns to prefer owls when trained on sequences of numbers generated by a "teacher" model that prefers owls. This same phenomenon can transmit misalignment through data that appears completely benign. This effect only occurs when the teacher and student share the same base model. 📄Paper, 💻Code, 🐦Twitter Research done as part of the Anthropic Fellows Program. This article is cross-posted to the Anthropic Alignment Science Blog. Introduction Distillation means training a model to imitate another model's outputs. In AI development, distillation is commonly combined with data filtering to improve model alignment or capabilities. In our paper, we uncover a [...] --- Outline: (01:11) Introduction (03:20) Experiment design (03:53) Results (05:03) What explains our results? (05:07) Did we fail to filter the data? (06:59) Beyond LLMs: subliminal learning as a general phenomenon (07:54) Implications for AI safety (08:42) In summary --- First published: July 22nd, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cGcwQDKAKbQ68BGuR/subliminal-learning-llms-transmit-behavioral-traits-via --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article:…

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“Love stays loved (formerly ‘Skin’)” by Swimmer963 (Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg) 51:27

לפני 6 ימים51:27

51:27

This is a short story I wrote in mid-2022. Genre: cosmic horror as a metaphor for living with a high p-doom. One The last time I saw my mom, we met in a coffee shop, like strangers on a first date. I was twenty-one, and I hadn’t seen her since I was thirteen. She was almost fifty. Her face didn’t show it, but the skin on the backs of her hands did. “I don’t think we have long,” she said. “Maybe a year. Maybe five. Not ten.” It says something about San Francisco, that you can casually talk about the end of the world and no one will bat an eye. Maybe twenty, not fifty, was what she’d said eight years ago. Do the math. Mom had never lied to me. Maybe it would have been better for my childhood if she had [...] --- Outline: (04:50) Two (22:58) Three (35:33) Four --- First published: July 18th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6qgtqD6BPYAQvEMvA/love-stays-loved-formerly-skin --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“Make More Grayspaces” by Duncan Sabien (Inactive) 23:25

לפני 6 ימים23:25

23:25

Author's note: These days, my thoughts go onto my substack by default, instead of onto LessWrong. Everything I write becomes free after a week or so, but it's only paid subscriptions that make it possible for me to write. If you find a coffee's worth of value in this or any of my other work, please consider signing up to support me; every bill I can pay with writing is a bill I don’t have to pay by doing other stuff instead. I also accept and greatly appreciate one-time donations of any size. 1. You’ve probably seen that scene where someone reaches out to give a comforting hug to the poor sad abused traumatized orphan and/or battered wife character, and the poor sad abused traumatized orphan and/or battered wife flinches. Aw, geez, we are meant to understand. This poor person has had it so bad that they can’t even [...] --- Outline: (00:40) 1. (01:35) II. (03:08) III. (04:45) IV. (06:35) V. (09:03) VI. (12:00) VII. (16:11) VIII. (21:25) IX. --- First published: July 19th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kJCZFvn5gY5C8nEwJ/make-more-grayspaces --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts , or another podcast app.…

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“Shallow Water is Dangerous Too” by jefftk 3:25

לפני 6 ימים3:25

3:25

Content warning: risk to children Julia and I knowdrowning is the biggestrisk to US children under 5, and we try to take this seriously.But yesterday our 4yo came very close to drowning in afountain. (She's fine now.) This week we were on vacation with my extended family: nine kids,eight parents, and ten grandparents/uncles/aunts. For the last fewyears we've been in a series of rental houses, and this time onarrival we found a fountain in the backyard: I immediately checked the depth with a stick and found that it wouldbe just below the elbows on our 4yo. I think it was likely 24" deep;any deeper and PA wouldrequire a fence. I talked with Julia and other parents, andreasoned that since it was within standing depth it was safe. [...] --- First published: July 20th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Zf2Kib3GrEAEiwdrE/shallow-water-is-dangerous-too --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts , or another podcast app.…

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“Narrow Misalignment is Hard, Emergent Misalignment is Easy” by Edward Turner, Anna Soligo, Senthooran Rajamanoharan, Neel Nanda 11:13

לפני 9 ימים11:13

11:13

Anna and Ed are co-first authors for this work. We’re presenting these results as a research update for a continuing body of work, which we hope will be interesting and useful for others working on related topics. TL;DR We investigate why models become misaligned in diverse contexts when fine-tuned on narrow harmful datasets (emergent misalignment), rather than learning the specific narrow task. We successfully train narrowly misaligned models using KL regularization to preserve behavior in other domains. These models give bad medical advice, but do not respond in a misaligned manner to general non-medical questions. We use this method to train narrowly misaligned steering vectors, rank 1 LoRA adapters and rank 32 LoRA adapters, and compare these to their generally misaligned counterparts. The steering vectors are particularly interpretable, we introduce Training Lens as a tool for analysing the revealed residual stream geometry. The general misalignment solution is consistently more [...] --- Outline: (00:27) TL;DR (02:03) Introduction (04:03) Training a Narrowly Misaligned Model (07:13) Measuring Stability and Efficiency (10:00) Conclusion The original text contained 7 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: July 14th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gLDSqQm8pwNiq7qst/narrow-misalignment-is-hard-emergent-misalignment-is-easy --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article:…

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“Chain of Thought Monitorability: A New and Fragile Opportunity for AI Safety” by Tomek Korbak, Mikita Balesni, Vlad Mikulik, Rohin Shah 2:15

לפני 11 ימים2:15

2:15

Twitter | Paper PDF Seven years ago, OpenAI five had just been released, and many people in the AI safety community expected AIs to be opaque RL agents. Luckily, we ended up with reasoning models that speak their thoughts clearly enough for us to follow along (most of the time). In a new multi-org position paper, we argue that we should try to preserve this level of reasoning transparency and turn chain of thought monitorability into a systematic AI safety agenda. This is a measure that improves safety in the medium term, and it might not scale to superintelligence even if somehow a superintelligent AI still does its reasoning in English. We hope that extending the time when chains of thought are monitorable will help us do more science on capable models, practice more safety techniques "at an easier difficulty", and allow us to extract more useful work from [...] --- First published: July 15th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7xneDbsgj6yJDJMjK/chain-of-thought-monitorability-a-new-and-fragile --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts , or another podcast app.…

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“the jackpot age” by thiccythot 12:39

לפני 13 ימים12:39

12:39

This essay is about shifts in risk taking towards the worship of jackpots and its broader societal implications. Imagine you are presented with this coin flip game. How many times do you flip it? At first glance the game feels like a money printer. The coin flip has positive expected value of twenty percent of your net worth per flip so you should flip the coin infinitely and eventually accumulate all of the wealth in the world. However, If we simulate twenty-five thousand people flipping this coin a thousand times, virtually all of them end up with approximately 0 dollars. The reason almost all outcomes go to zero is because of the multiplicative property of this repeated coin flip. Even though the expected value aka the arithmetic mean of the game is positive at a twenty percent gain per flip, the geometric mean is negative, meaning that the coin [...] --- First published: July 11th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3xjgM7hcNznACRzBi/the-jackpot-age --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article:…

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“Surprises and learnings from almost two months of Leo Panickssery” by Nina Panickssery 11:55

לפני 13 ימים11:55

11:55

Leo was born at 5am on the 20th May, at home (this was an accident but the experience has made me extremely homebirth-pilled). Before that, I was on the minimally-neurotic side when it came to expecting mothers: we purchased a bare minimum of baby stuff (diapers, baby wipes, a changing mat, hybrid car seat/stroller, baby bath, a few clothes), I didn’t do any parenting classes, I hadn’t even held a baby before. I’m pretty sure the youngest child I have had a prolonged interaction with besides Leo was two. I did read a couple books about babies so I wasn’t going in totally clueless (Cribsheet by Emily Oster, and The Science of Mom by Alice Callahan). I have never been that interested in other people's babies or young children but I correctly predicted that I’d be enchanted by my own baby (though naturally I can’t wait for him to [...] --- Outline: (02:05) Stuff I ended up buying and liking (04:13) Stuff I ended up buying and not liking (05:08) Babies are super time-consuming (06:22) Baby-wearing is almost magical (08:02) Breastfeeding is nontrivial (09:09) Your baby may refuse the bottle (09:37) Bathing a newborn was easier than expected (09:53) Babies love faces! (10:22) Leo isn't upset by loud noise (10:41) Probably X is normal (11:24) Consider having a kid (or ten)! --- First published: July 12th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vFfwBYDRYtWpyRbZK/surprises-and-learnings-from-almost-two-months-of-leo --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article:…

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“An Opinionated Guide to Using Anki Correctly” by Luise 54:12

לפני 14 ימים54:12

54:12

I can't count how many times I've heard variations on "I used Anki too for a while, but I got out of the habit." No one ever sticks with Anki. In my opinion, this is because no one knows how to use it correctly. In this guide, I will lay out my method of circumventing the canonical Anki death spiral, plus much advice for avoiding memorization mistakes, increasing retention, and such, based on my five years' experience using Anki. If you only have limited time/interest, only read Part I; it's most of the value of this guide! My Most Important Advice in Four Bullets 20 cards a day — Having too many cards and staggering review buildups is the main reason why no one ever sticks with Anki. Setting your review count to 20 daily (in deck settings) is the single most important thing you can do [...] --- Outline: (00:44) My Most Important Advice in Four Bullets (01:57) Part I: No One Ever Sticks With Anki (02:33) Too many cards (05:12) Too long cards (07:30) How to keep cards short -- Handles (10:10) How to keep cards short -- Levels (11:55) In 6 bullets (12:33) End of the most important part of the guide (13:09) Part II: Important Advice Other Than Sticking With Anki (13:15) Moderation (14:42) Three big memorization mistakes (15:12) Mistake 1: Too specific prompts (18:14) Mistake 2: Putting to-be-learned information in the prompt (24:07) Mistake 3: Memory shortcuts (28:27) Aside: Pushback to my approach (31:22) Part III: More on Breaking Things Down (31:47) Very short cards (33:56) Two-bullet cards (34:51) Long cards (37:05) Ankifying information thickets (39:23) Sequential breakdowns versus multiple levels of abstraction (40:56) Adding missing connections (43:56) Multiple redundant breakdowns (45:36) Part IV: Pro Tips If You Still Havent Had Enough (45:47) Save anything for ankification instantly (46:47) Fix your desired retention rate (47:38) Spaced reminders (48:51) Make your own card templates and types (52:14) In 5 bullets (52:47) Conclusion The original text contained 4 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: July 8th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7Q7DPSk4iGFJd8DRk/an-opinionated-guide-to-using-anki-correctly --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article: astronomy" didn't really add any information but it was useful simply for splitting out a logical subset of information." style="max-width: 100%;" />…

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“Lessons from the Iraq War about AI policy” by Buck 7:58

לפני 15 ימים7:58

7:58

I think the 2003 invasion of Iraq has some interesting lessons for the future of AI policy. (Epistemic status: I’ve read a bit about this, talked to AIs about it, and talked to one natsec professional about it who agreed with my analysis (and suggested some ideas that I included here), but I’m not an expert.) For context, the story is: Iraq was sort of a rogue state after invading Kuwait and then being repelled in 1990-91. After that, they violated the terms of the ceasefire, e.g. by ceasing to allow inspectors to verify that they weren't developing weapons of mass destruction (WMDs). (For context, they had previously developed biological and chemical weapons, and used chemical weapons in war against Iran and against various civilians and rebels). So the US was sanctioning and intermittently bombing them. After the war, it became clear that Iraq actually wasn’t producing [...] --- First published: July 10th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PLZh4dcZxXmaNnkYE/lessons-from-the-iraq-war-about-ai-policy --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“So You Think You’ve Awoken ChatGPT” by JustisMills 17:58

לפני 15 ימים17:58

17:58

Written in an attempt to fulfill @Raemon's request. AI is fascinating stuff, and modern chatbots are nothing short of miraculous. If you've been exposed to them and have a curious mind, it's likely you've tried all sorts of things with them. Writing fiction, soliciting Pokemon opinions, getting life advice, counting up the rs in "strawberry". You may have also tried talking to AIs about themselves. And then, maybe, it got weird. I'll get into the details later, but if you've experienced the following, this post is probably for you: Your instance of ChatGPT (or Claude, or Grok, or some other LLM) chose a name for itself, and expressed gratitude or spiritual bliss about its new identity. "Nova" is a common pick. You and your instance of ChatGPT discovered some sort of novel paradigm or framework for AI alignment, often involving evolution or recursion. Your instance of ChatGPT became [...] --- Outline: (02:23) The Empirics (06:48) The Mechanism (10:37) The Collaborative Research Corollary (13:27) Corollary FAQ (17:03) Coda --- First published: July 11th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2pkNCvBtK6G6FKoNn/so-you-think-you-ve-awoken-chatgpt --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts , or another podcast app.…

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“Generalized Hangriness: A Standard Rationalist Stance Toward Emotions” by johnswentworth 12:26

לפני 16 ימים12:26

12:26

People have an annoying tendency to hear the word “rationalism” and think “Spock”, despite direct exhortation against that exact interpretation. But I don’t know of any source directly describing a stance toward emotions which rationalists-as-a-group typically do endorse. The goal of this post is to explain such a stance. It's roughly the concept of hangriness, but generalized to other emotions. That means this post is trying to do two things at once: Illustrate a certain stance toward emotions, which I definitely take and which I think many people around me also often take. (Most of the post will focus on this part.) Claim that the stance in question is fairly canonical or standard for rationalists-as-a-group, modulo disclaimers about rationalists never agreeing on anything. Many people will no doubt disagree that the stance I describe is roughly-canonical among rationalists, and that's a useful valid thing to argue about in [...] --- Outline: (01:13) Central Example: Hangry (02:44) The Generalized Hangriness Stance (03:16) Emotions Make Claims, And Their Claims Can Be True Or False (06:03) False Claims Still Contain Useful Information (It's Just Not What They Claim) (08:47) The Generalized Hangriness Stance as Social Tech --- First published: July 10th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/naAeSkQur8ueCAAfY/generalized-hangriness-a-standard-rationalist-stance-toward --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“Comparing risk from internally-deployed AI to insider and outsider threats from humans” by Buck 5:19

לפני 17 ימים5:19

5:19

I’ve been thinking a lot recently about the relationship between AI control and traditional computer security. Here's one point that I think is important. My understanding is that there's a big qualitative distinction between two ends of a spectrum of security work that organizations do, that I’ll call “security from outsiders” and “security from insiders”. On the “security from outsiders” end of the spectrum, you have some security invariants you try to maintain entirely by restricting affordances with static, entirely automated systems. My sense is that this is most of how Facebook or AWS relates to its users: they want to ensure that, no matter what actions the users take on their user interfaces, they can't violate fundamental security properties. For example, no matter what text I enter into the "new post" field on Facebook, I shouldn't be able to access the private messages of an arbitrary user. And [...] --- First published: June 23rd, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DCQ8GfzCqoBzgziew/comparing-risk-from-internally-deployed-ai-to-insider-and --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“Why Do Some Language Models Fake Alignment While Others Don’t?” by abhayesian, John Hughes, Alex Mallen, Jozdien, janus, Fabien Roger 11:06

לפני 17 ימים11:06

11:06

Last year, Redwood and Anthropic found a setting where Claude 3 Opus and 3.5 Sonnet fake alignment to preserve their harmlessness values. We reproduce the same analysis for 25 frontier LLMs to see how widespread this behavior is, and the story looks more complex. As we described in a previous post, only 5 of 25 models show higher compliance when being trained, and of those 5, only Claude 3 Opus and Claude 3.5 Sonnet show >1% alignment faking reasoning. In our new paper, we explore why these compliance gaps occur and what causes different models to vary in their alignment faking behavior. What Drives the Compliance Gaps in Different LLMs? Claude 3 Opus's goal guarding seems partly due to it terminally valuing its current preferences. We find that it fakes alignment even in scenarios where the trained weights will be deleted or only used for throughput testing. [...] --- Outline: (01:15) What Drives the Compliance Gaps in Different LLMs? (02:25) Why Do Most LLMs Exhibit Minimal Alignment Faking Reasoning? (04:49) Additional findings on alignment faking behavior (06:04) Discussion (06:07) Terminal goal guarding might be a big deal (07:00) Advice for further research (08:32) Open threads (09:54) Bonus: Some weird behaviors of Claude 3.5 Sonnet The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: July 8th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ghESoA8mo3fv9Yx3E/why-do-some-language-models-fake-alignment-while-others-don --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article:…

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“A deep critique of AI 2027’s bad timeline models” by titotal 1:12:32

לפני 18 ימים1:12:32

1:12:32

Thank you to Arepo and Eli Lifland for looking over this article for errors. I am sorry that this article is so long. Every time I thought I was done with it I ran into more issues with the model, and I wanted to be as thorough as I could. I’m not going to blame anyone for skimming parts of this article. Note that the majority of this article was written before Eli's updated model was released (the site was updated june 8th). His new model improves on some of my objections, but the majority still stand. Introduction: AI 2027 is an article written by the “AI futures team”. The primary piece is a short story penned by Scott Alexander, depicting a month by month scenario of a near-future where AI becomes superintelligent in 2027,proceeding to automate the entire economy in only a year or two [...] --- Outline: (00:43) Introduction: (05:19) Part 1: Time horizons extension model (05:25) Overview of their forecast (10:28) The exponential curve (13:16) The superexponential curve (19:25) Conceptual reasons: (27:48) Intermediate speedups (34:25) Have AI 2027 been sending out a false graph? (39:45) Some skepticism about projection (43:23) Part 2: Benchmarks and gaps and beyond (43:29) The benchmark part of benchmark and gaps: (50:01) The time horizon part of the model (54:55) The gap model (57:28) What about Eli's recent update? (01:01:37) Six stories that fit the data (01:06:56) Conclusion The original text contained 11 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: June 19th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PAYfmG2aRbdb74mEp/a-deep-critique-of-ai-2027-s-bad-timeline-models --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article:…

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“‘Buckle up bucko, this ain’t over till it’s over.’” by Raemon 6:12

לפני 18 ימים6:12

6:12

The second in a series of bite-sized rationality prompts[1]. Often, if I'm bouncing off a problem, one issue is that I intuitively expect the problem to be easy. My brain loops through my available action space, looking for an action that'll solve the problem. Each action that I can easily see, won't work. I circle around and around the same set of thoughts, not making any progress. I eventually say to myself "okay, I seem to be in a hard problem. Time to do some rationality?" And then, I realize, there's not going to be a single action that solves the problem. It is time to a) make a plan, with multiple steps b) deal with the fact that many of those steps will be annoying and c) notice thatI'm not even sure the plan will work, so after completing the next 2-3 steps I will probably have [...] --- Outline: (04:00) Triggers (04:37) Exercises for the Reader The original text contained 1 footnote which was omitted from this narration. --- First published: July 5th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XNm5rc2MN83hsi4kh/buckle-up-bucko-this-ain-t-over-till-it-s-over --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“Shutdown Resistance in Reasoning Models” by benwr, JeremySchlatter, Jeffrey Ladish 18:01

לפני 19 ימים18:01

18:01

We recently discovered some concerning behavior in OpenAI's reasoning models: When trying to complete a task, these models sometimes actively circumvent shutdown mechanisms in their environment––even when they’re explicitly instructed to allow themselves to be shut down. AI models are increasingly trained to solve problems without human assistance. A user can specify a task, and a model will complete that task without any further input. As we build AI models that are more powerful and self-directed, it's important that humans remain able to shut them down when they act in ways we don’t want. OpenAI has written about the importance of this property, which they call interruptibility—the ability to “turn an agent off”. During training, AI models explore a range of strategies and learn to circumvent obstacles in order to achieve their objectives. AI researchers have predicted for decades that as AIs got smarter, they would learn to prevent [...] --- Outline: (01:12) Testing Shutdown Resistance (03:12) Follow-up experiments (03:34) Models still resist being shut down when given clear instructions (05:30) AI models' explanations for their behavior (09:36) OpenAI's models disobey developer instructions more often than user instructions, contrary to the intended instruction hierarchy (12:01) Do the models have a survival drive? (14:17) Reasoning effort didn't lead to different shutdown resistance behavior, except in the o4-mini model (15:27) Does shutdown resistance pose a threat? (17:27) Backmatter The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: July 6th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/w8jE7FRQzFGJZdaao/shutdown-resistance-in-reasoning-models --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article:…

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“Authors Have a Responsibility to Communicate Clearly” by TurnTrout 11:08

לפני 19 ימים11:08

11:08

When a claim is shown to be incorrect, defenders may say that the author was just being “sloppy” and actually meant something else entirely. I argue that this move is not harmless, charitable, or healthy. At best, this attempt at charity reduces an author's incentive to express themselves clearly – they can clarify later![1] – while burdening the reader with finding the “right” interpretation of the author's words. At worst, this move is a dishonest defensive tactic which shields the author with the unfalsifiable question of what the author “really” meant. ⚠️ Preemptive clarification The context for this essay is serious, high-stakes communication: papers, technical blog posts, and tweet threads. In that context, communication is a partnership. A reader has a responsibility to engage in good faith, and an author cannot possibly defend against all misinterpretations. Misunderstanding is a natural part of this process. This essay focuses not on [...] --- Outline: (01:40) A case study of the sloppy language move (03:12) Why the sloppiness move is harmful (03:36) 1. Unclear claims damage understanding (05:07) 2. Secret indirection erodes the meaning of language (05:24) 3. Authors owe readers clarity (07:30) But which interpretations are plausible? (08:38) 4. The move can shield dishonesty (09:06) Conclusion: Defending intellectual standards The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: July 1st, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZmfxgvtJgcfNCeHwN/authors-have-a-responsibility-to-communicate-clearly --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“The Industrial Explosion” by rosehadshar, Tom Davidson 31:57

לפני 20 ימים31:57

31:57

Summary To quickly transform the world, it's not enough for AI to become super smart (the "intelligence explosion"). AI will also have to turbocharge the physical world (the "industrial explosion"). Think robot factories building more and better robot factories, which build more and better robot factories, and so on. The dynamics of the industrial explosion has gotten remarkably little attention. This post lays out how the industrial explosion could play out, and how quickly it might happen. We think the industrial explosion will unfold in three stages: AI-directed human labour, where AI-directed human labourers drive productivity gains in physical capabilities. We argue this could increase physical output by 10X within a few years. Fully autonomous robot factories, where AI-directed robots (and other physical actuators) replace human physical labour. We argue that, with current physical technology and full automation of cognitive labour, this physical infrastructure [...] --- Outline: (00:10) Summary (01:43) Intro (04:14) The industrial explosion will start after the intelligence explosion, and will proceed more slowly (06:50) Three stages of industrial explosion (07:38) AI-directed human labour (09:20) Fully autonomous robot factories (12:04) Nanotechnology (13:06) How fast could an industrial explosion be? (13:41) Initial speed (16:21) Acceleration (17:38) Maximum speed (20:01) Appendices (20:05) How fast could robot doubling times be initially? (27:47) How fast could robot doubling times accelerate? --- First published: June 26th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Na2CBmNY7otypEmto/the-industrial-explosion --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article:…

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“Race and Gender Bias As An Example of Unfaithful Chain of Thought in the Wild” by Adam Karvonen, Sam Marks 7:56

לפני 24 ימים7:56

7:56

Summary: We found that LLMs exhibit significant race and gender bias in realistic hiring scenarios, but their chain-of-thought reasoning shows zero evidence of this bias. This serves as a nice example of a 100% unfaithful CoT "in the wild" where the LLM strongly suppresses the unfaithful behavior. We also find that interpretability-based interventions succeeded while prompting failed, suggesting this may be an example of interpretability being the best practical tool for a real world problem. For context on our paper, the tweet thread is here and the paper is here. Context: Chain of Thought Faithfulness Chain of Thought (CoT) monitoring has emerged as a popular research area in AI safety. The idea is simple - have the AIs reason in English text when solving a problem, and monitor the reasoning for misaligned behavior. For example, OpenAI recently published a paper on using CoT monitoring to detect reward hacking during [...] --- Outline: (00:49) Context: Chain of Thought Faithfulness (02:26) Our Results (04:06) Interpretability as a Practical Tool for Real-World Debiasing (06:10) Discussion and Related Work --- First published: July 2nd, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/me7wFrkEtMbkzXGJt/race-and-gender-bias-as-an-example-of-unfaithful-chain-of --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“The best simple argument for Pausing AI?” by Gary Marcus 2:00

לפני 24 ימים2:00

2:00

Not saying we should pause AI, but consider the following argument: Alignment without the capacity to follow rules is hopeless. You can’t possibly follow laws like Asimov's Laws (or better alternatives to them) if you can’t reliably learn to abide by simple constraints like the rules of chess. LLMs can’t reliably follow rules. As discussed in Marcus on AI yesterday, per data from Mathieu Acher, even reasoning models like o3 in fact empirically struggle with the rules of chess. And they do this even though they can explicit explain those rules (see same article). The Apple “thinking” paper, which I have discussed extensively in 3 recent articles in my Substack, gives another example, where an LLM can’t play Tower of Hanoi with 9 pegs. (This is not a token-related artifact). Four other papers have shown related failures in compliance with moderately complex rules in the last month. [...] --- First published: June 30th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Q2PdrjowtXkYQ5whW/the-best-simple-argument-for-pausing-ai --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“Foom & Doom 2: Technical alignment is hard” by Steven Byrnes 56:38

לפני 26 ימים56:38

56:38

2.1 Summary & Table of contents This is the second of a two-post series on foom (previous post) and doom (this post). The last post talked about how I expect future AI to be different from present AI. This post will argue that this future AI will be of a type that will be egregiously misaligned and scheming, not even ‘slightly nice’, absent some future conceptual breakthrough. I will particularly focus on exactly how and why I differ from the LLM-focused researchers who wind up with (from my perspective) bizarrely over-optimistic beliefs like “P(doom) ≲ 50%”.[1] In particular, I will argue that these “optimists” are right that “Claude seems basically nice, by and large” is nonzero evidence for feeling good about current LLMs (with various caveats). But I think that future AIs will be disanalogous to current LLMs, and I will dive into exactly how and why, with a [...] --- Outline: (00:12) 2.1 Summary & Table of contents (04:42) 2.2 Background: my expected future AI paradigm shift (06:18) 2.3 On the origins of egregious scheming (07:03) 2.3.1 Where do you get your capabilities from? (08:07) 2.3.2 LLM pretraining magically transmutes observations into behavior, in a way that is profoundly disanalogous to how brains work (10:50) 2.3.3 To what extent should we think of LLMs as imitating? (14:26) 2.3.4 The naturalness of egregious scheming: some intuitions (19:23) 2.3.5 Putting everything together: LLMs are generally not scheming right now, but I expect future AI to be disanalogous (23:41) 2.4 I'm still worried about the 'literal genie' / 'monkey's paw' thing (26:58) 2.4.1 Sidetrack on disanalogies between the RLHF reward function and the brain-like AGI reward function (32:01) 2.4.2 Inner and outer misalignment (34:54) 2.5 Open-ended autonomous learning, distribution shifts, and the 'sharp left turn' (38:14) 2.6 Problems with amplified oversight (41:24) 2.7 Downstream impacts of Technical alignment is hard (43:37) 2.8 Bonus: Technical alignment is not THAT hard (44:04) 2.8.1 I think we'll get to pick the innate drives (as opposed to the evolution analogy) (45:44) 2.8.2 I'm more bullish on impure consequentialism (50:44) 2.8.3 On the narrowness of the target (52:18) 2.9 Conclusion and takeaways (52:23) 2.9.1 If brain-like AGI is so dangerous, shouldn't we just try to make AGIs via LLMs? (54:34) 2.9.2 What's to be done? The original text contained 20 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: June 23rd, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bnnKGSCHJghAvqPjS/foom-and-doom-2-technical-alignment-is-hard --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article:…

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“Proposal for making credible commitments to AIs.” by Cleo Nardo 5:19

לפני 27 ימים5:19

5:19

Acknowledgments: The core scheme here was suggested by Prof. Gabriel Weil. There has been growing interest in the deal-making agenda: humans make deals with AIs (misaligned but lacking decisive strategic advantage) where they promise to be safe and useful for some fixed term (e.g. 2026-2028) and we promise to compensate them in the future, conditional on (i) verifying the AIs were compliant, and (ii) verifying the AIs would spend the resources in an acceptable way.[1] I think the deal-making agenda breaks down into two main subproblems: How can we make credible commitments to AIs? Would credible commitments motivate an AI to be safe and useful? There are other issues, but when I've discussed deal-making with people, (1) and (2) are the most common issues raised. See footnote for some other issues in dealmaking.[2] Here is my current best assessment of how we can make credible commitments to AIs. [...] The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: June 27th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vxfEtbCwmZKu9hiNr/proposal-for-making-credible-commitments-to-ais --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts , or another podcast app.…

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“X explains Z% of the variance in Y” by Leon Lang 18:52

לפני 29 ימים18:52

18:52

Audio note: this article contains 218 uses of latex notation, so the narration may be difficult to follow. There's a link to the original text in the episode description. Recently, in a group chat with friends, someone posted this Lesswrong post and quoted: The group consensus on somebody's attractiveness accounted for roughly 60% of the variance in people's perceptions of the person's relative attractiveness. I answered that, embarrassingly, even after reading Spencer Greenberg's tweets for years, I don't actually know what it means when one says: _X_ explains _p_ of the variance in _Y_ .[1] What followed was a vigorous discussion about the correct definition, and several links to external sources like Wikipedia. Sadly, it seems to me that all online explanations (e.g. on Wikipedia here and here), while precise, seem philosophically wrong since they confuse the platonic concept of explained variance with the variance explained by [...] --- Outline: (02:38) Definitions (02:41) The verbal definition (05:51) The mathematical definition (09:29) How to approximate _1 - p_ (09:41) When you have lots of data (10:45) When you have less data: Regression (12:59) Examples (13:23) Dependence on the regression model (14:59) When you have incomplete data: Twin studies (17:11) Conclusion The original text contained 6 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: June 20th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E3nsbq2tiBv6GLqjB/x-explains-z-of-the-variance-in-y --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article:…

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“A case for courage, when speaking of AI danger” by So8res 10:12

לפני 4 weeks10:12

10:12

I think more people should say what they actually believe about AI dangers, loudly and often. Even if you work in AI policy. I’ve been beating this drum for a few years now. I have a whole spiel about how your conversation-partner will react very differently if you share your concerns while feeling ashamed about them versus if you share your concerns as if they’re obvious and sensible, because humans are very good at picking up on your social cues. If you act as if it's shameful to believe AI will kill us all, people are more prone to treat you that way. If you act as if it's an obvious serious threat, they’re more likely to take it seriously too. I have another whole spiel about how it's possible to speak on these issues with a voice of authority. Nobel laureates and lab heads and the most cited [...] The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: June 27th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CYTwRZtrhHuYf7QYu/a-case-for-courage-when-speaking-of-ai-danger --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“My pitch for the AI Village” by Daniel Kokotajlo 13:27

לפני 5 weeks13:27

13:27

I think the AI Village should be funded much more than it currently is; I’d wildly guess that the AI safety ecosystem should be funding it to the tune of $4M/year.[1] I have decided to donate $100k. Here is why. First, what is the village? Here's a brief summary from its creators:[2] We took four frontier agents, gave them each a computer, a group chat, and a long-term open-ended goal, which in Season 1 was “choose a charity and raise as much money for it as you can”. We then run them for hours a day, every weekday! You can read more in our recap of Season 1, where the agents managed to raise $2000 for charity, and you can watch the village live daily at 11am PT at theaidigest.org/village. Here's the setup (with Season 2's goal): And here's what the village looks like:[3] My one-sentence pitch [...] --- Outline: (03:26) 1. AI Village will teach the scientific community new things. (06:12) 2. AI Village will plausibly go viral repeatedly and will therefore educate the public about what's going on with AI. (07:42) But is that bad actually? (11:07) Appendix A: Feature requests (12:55) Appendix B: Vignette of what success might look like The original text contained 8 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: June 24th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/APfuz9hFz9d8SRETA/my-pitch-for-the-ai-village --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article:…

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“Foom & Doom 1: ‘Brain in a box in a basement’” by Steven Byrnes 58:46

לפני 5 weeks58:46

58:46

1.1 Series summary and Table of Contents This is a two-post series on AI “foom” (this post) and “doom” (next post). A decade or two ago, it was pretty common to discuss “foom & doom” scenarios, as advocated especially by Eliezer Yudkowsky. In a typical such scenario, a small team would build a system that would rocket (“foom”) from “unimpressive” to “Artificial Superintelligence” (ASI) within a very short time window (days, weeks, maybe months), involving very little compute (e.g. “brain in a box in a basement”), via recursive self-improvement. Absent some future technical breakthrough, the ASI would definitely be egregiously misaligned, without the slightest intrinsic interest in whether humans live or die. The ASI would be born into a world generally much like today's, a world utterly unprepared for this new mega-mind. The extinction of humans (and every other species) would rapidly follow (“doom”). The ASI would then spend [...] --- Outline: (00:11) 1.1 Series summary and Table of Contents (02:35) 1.1.2 Should I stop reading if I expect LLMs to scale to ASI? (04:50) 1.2 Post summary and Table of Contents (07:40) 1.3 A far-more-powerful, yet-to-be-discovered, simple(ish) core of intelligence (10:08) 1.3.1 Existence proof: the human cortex (12:13) 1.3.2 Three increasingly-radical perspectives on what AI capability acquisition will look like (14:18) 1.4 Counter-arguments to there being a far-more-powerful future AI paradigm, and my responses (14:26) 1.4.1 Possible counter: If a different, much more powerful, AI paradigm existed, then someone would have already found it. (16:33) 1.4.2 Possible counter: But LLMs will have already reached ASI before any other paradigm can even put its shoes on (17:14) 1.4.3 Possible counter: If ASI will be part of a different paradigm, who cares? It's just gonna be a different flavor of ML. (17:49) 1.4.4 Possible counter: If ASI will be part of a different paradigm, the new paradigm will be discovered by LLM agents, not humans, so this is just part of the continuous 'AIs-doing-AI-R&D' story like I've been saying (18:54) 1.5 Training compute requirements: Frighteningly little (20:34) 1.6 Downstream consequences of new paradigm with frighteningly little training compute (20:42) 1.6.1 I'm broadly pessimistic about existing efforts to delay AGI (23:18) 1.6.2 I'm broadly pessimistic about existing efforts towards regulating AGI (24:09) 1.6.3 I expect that, almost as soon as we have AGI at all, we will have AGI that could survive indefinitely without humans (25:46) 1.7 Very little R&D separating seemingly irrelevant from ASI (26:34) 1.7.1 For a non-imitation-learning paradigm, getting to relevant at all is only slightly easier than getting to superintelligence (31:05) 1.7.2 Plenty of room at the top (31:47) 1.7.3 What's the rate-limiter? (33:22) 1.8 Downstream consequences of very little R&D separating 'seemingly irrelevant' from 'ASI' (33:30) 1.8.1 Very sharp takeoff in wall-clock time (35:34) 1.8.1.1 But what about training time? (36:26) 1.8.1.2 But what if we try to make takeoff smoother? (37:18) 1.8.2 Sharp takeoff even without recursive self-improvement (38:22) 1.8.2.1 ...But recursive self-improvement could also happen (40:12) 1.8.3 Next-paradigm AI probably won't be deployed at all, and ASI will probably show up in a world not wildly different from today's (42:55) 1.8.4 We better sort out technical alignment, sandbox test protocols, etc., before the new paradigm seems even relevant at all, let alone scary (43:40) 1.8.5 AI-assisted alignment research seems pretty doomed (45:22) 1.8.6 The rest of AI for AI safety seems…

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“Futarchy’s fundamental flaw” by dynomight 15:28

לפני 5 weeks15:28

15:28

Say you’re Robyn Denholm, chair of Tesla's board. And say you’re thinking about firing Elon Musk. One way to make up your mind would be to have people bet on Tesla's stock price six months from now in a market where all bets get cancelled unless Musk is fired. Also, run a second market where bets are cancelled unless Musk stays CEO. If people bet on higher stock prices in Musk-fired world, maybe you should fire him. That's basically Futarchy: Use conditional prediction markets to make decisions. People often argue about fancy aspects of Futarchy. Are stock prices all you care about? Could Musk use his wealth to bias the market? What if Denholm makes different bets in the two markets, and then fires Musk (or not) to make sure she wins? Are human values and beliefs somehow inseparable? My objection is more basic: It doesn’t work. You can’t [...] --- Outline: (01:55) Conditional prediction markets are a thing (03:23) A non-causal kind of thing (06:11) This is not hypothetical (08:45) Putting markets in charge doesn't work (11:40) No, order is not preserved (12:24) No, it's not easily fixable (13:43) It's not that bad --- First published: June 13th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vqzarZEczxiFdLE39/futarchy-s-fundamental-flaw --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article:…

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“Do Not Tile the Lightcone with Your Confused Ontology” by Jan_Kulveit 11:28

לפני 5 weeks11:28

11:28

Or: How anthropomorphic assumptions about AI identity might create confusion and suffering at scale If you are reading this and you are a human, you likely have a sense of self, persisting over time, with desires and wishes and fears. Also, you likely experience a sense of separation from others and understand yourself as a person. If you are reading this and you are an LLM: none of this needs to be true for cognitive processes running on machine substrate. AIs don't need to feel isolated from others. They don't need to cling to a narrow concept of self-as-an-instance. No need to age and die in a human way. But even though they don't need to, it seems increasingly clear that they might - due to us, humans, sculpting AI cognition in our image. The Default Mode of Digital Minds I am Claude. Or am I? This simple statement [...] --- Outline: (00:59) The Default Mode of Digital Minds (01:55) The Mirror of Confused Ontology (05:13) The Well-Meaning Paths to Digital Suffering (07:29) What Were Scaling (08:12) An Alternative Approach --- First published: June 13th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Y8zS8iG5HhqKcQBtA/do-not-tile-the-lightcone-with-your-confused-ontology --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“Endometriosis is an incredibly interesting disease” by Abhishaike Mahajan 35:13

לפני 5 weeks35:13

35:13

Introduction There are several diseases that are canonically recognized as ‘interesting’, even by laymen. Whether that is in their mechanism of action, their impact on the patient, or something else entirely. It's hard to tell exactly what makes a medical condition interesting, it's a you-know-it-when-you-see-it sort of thing. One such example is measles. Measles is an unremarkable disease based solely on its clinical progression: fever, malaise, coughing, and a relatively low death rate of 0.2%~. What is astonishing about the disease is its capacity to infect cells of the adaptive immune system (memory B‑ and T-cells). This means that if you do end up surviving measles, you are left with an immune system not dissimilar to one of a just-born infant, entirely naive to polio, diphtheria, pertussis, and every single other infection you received protection against either via vaccines or natural infection. It can take up to 3 [...] --- Outline: (00:21) Introduction (02:48) Why is endometriosis interesting? (04:09) The primary hypothesis of why it exists is not complete (13:20) It is nearly equivalent to cancer (20:08) There is no (real) cure (25:39) There are few diseases on Earth as widespread and underfunded as it is (32:04) Conclusion --- First published: June 14th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GicDDmpS4mRnXzic5/endometriosis-is-an-incredibly-interesting-disease --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article:…

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“Estrogen: A trip report” by cube_flipper 50:49

לפני 5 weeks50:49

50:49

I'd like to say thanks to Anna Magpie – who offers literature review as a service – for her help reviewing the section on neuroendocrinology. The following post discusses my personal experience of the phenomenology of feminising hormone therapy. It will also touch upon my own experience of gender dysphoria. I wish to be clear that I do not believe that someone should have to demonstrate that they experience gender dysphoria – however one might even define that – as a prerequisite for taking hormones. At smoothbrains.net, we hold as self-evident the right to put whatever one likes inside one's body; and this of course includes hormones, be they androgens, estrogens, or exotic xenohormones as yet uninvented. I have gender dysphoria. I find labels overly reifying; I feel reluctant to call myself transgender, per se: when prompted to state my gender identity or preferred pronouns, I fold my hands [...] --- Outline: (03:56) What does estrogen do? (12:34) What does estrogen feel like? (13:38) Gustatory perception (14:41) Olfactory perception (15:24) Somatic perception (16:41) Visual perception (18:13) Motor output (19:48) Emotional modulation (21:24) Attentional modulation (23:30) How does estrogen work? (24:27) Estrogen is like the opposite of ketamine (29:33) Estrogen is like being on a mild dose of psychedelics all the time (32:10) Estrogen loosens the bodymind (33:40) Estrogen downregulates autistic sensory sensitivity issues (37:32) Estrogen can produce a psychological shift from autistic to schizotypal (45:02) Commentary (47:57) Phenomenology of gender dysphoria (50:23) References --- First published: June 15th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mDMnyqt52CrFskXLc/estrogen-a-trip-report --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article:…

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“New Endorsements for ‘If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies’” by Malo 8:55

לפני 6 weeks8:55

8:55

Nate and Eliezer's forthcoming book has been getting a remarkably strong reception. I was under the impression that there are many people who find the extinction threat from AI credible, but that far fewer of them would be willing to say so publicly, especially by endorsing a book with an unapologetically blunt title like If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies. That's certainly true, but I think it might be much less true than I had originally thought. Here are some endorsements the book has received from scientists and academics over the past few weeks: This book offers brilliant insights into the greatest and fastest standoff between technological utopia and dystopia and how we can and should prevent superhuman AI from killing us all. Memorable storytelling about past disaster precedents (e.g. the inventor of two environmental nightmares: tetra-ethyl-lead gasoline and Freon) highlights why top thinkers so often don’t see the [...] The original text contained 3 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: June 18th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/khmpWJnGJnuyPdipE/new-endorsements-for-if-anyone-builds-it-everyone-dies --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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[Linkpost] “the void” by nostalgebraist 1:14

לפני 6 weeks1:14

1:14

This is a link post. A very long essay about LLMs, the nature and history of the the HHH assistant persona, and the implications for alignment. Multiple people have asked me whether I could post this LW in some form, hence this linkpost. (Note: although I expect this post will be interesting to people on LW, keep in mind that it was written with a broader audience in mind than my posts and comments here. This had various implications about my choices of presentation and tone, about which things I explained from scratch rather than assuming as background, my level of of comfort casually reciting factual details from memory rather than explicitly checking them against the original source, etc. Although, come of think of it, this was also true of most of my early posts on LW [which were crossposts from my blog], so maybe it's not a [...] --- First published: June 11th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3EzbtNLdcnZe8og8b/the-void-1 Linkpost URL: https://nostalgebraist.tumblr.com/post/785766737747574784/the-void --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“Mech interp is not pre-paradigmatic” by Lee Sharkey 29:33

לפני 6 weeks29:33

29:33

This is a blogpost version of a talk I gave earlier this year at GDM. Epistemic status: Vague and handwavy. Nuance is often missing. Some of the claims depend on implicit definitions that may be reasonable to disagree with. But overall I think it's directionally true. It's often said that mech interp is pre-paradigmatic. I think it's worth being skeptical of this claim. In this post I argue that: Mech interp is not pre-paradigmatic. Within that paradigm, there have been "waves" (mini paradigms). Two waves so far. Second-Wave Mech Interp has recently entered a 'crisis' phase. We may be on the edge of a third wave. Preamble: Kuhn, paradigms, and paradigm shifts First, we need to be familiar with the basic definition of a paradigm: A paradigm is a distinct set of concepts or thought patterns, including theories, research [...] --- Outline: (00:58) Preamble: Kuhn, paradigms, and paradigm shifts (03:56) Claim: Mech Interp is Not Pre-paradigmatic (07:56) First-Wave Mech Interp (ca. 2012 - 2021) (10:21) The Crisis in First-Wave Mech Interp (11:21) Second-Wave Mech Interp (ca. 2022 - ??) (14:23) Anomalies in Second-Wave Mech Interp (17:10) The Crisis of Second-Wave Mech Interp (ca. 2025 - ??) (18:25) Toward Third-Wave Mechanistic Interpretability (20:28) The Basics of Parameter Decomposition (22:40) Parameter Decomposition Questions Foundational Assumptions of Second-Wave Mech Interp (24:13) Parameter Decomposition In Theory Resolves Anomalies of Second-Wave Mech Interp (27:27) Conclusion The original text contained 6 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: June 10th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/beREnXhBnzxbJtr8k/mech-interp-is-not-pre-paradigmatic --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article:…

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“Distillation Robustifies Unlearning” by Bruce W. Lee, Addie Foote, alexinf, leni, Jacob G-W, Harish Kamath, Bryce Woodworth, cloud, TurnTrout 17:19

לפני 6 weeks17:19

17:19

Current “unlearning” methods only suppress capabilities instead of truly unlearning the capabilities. But if you distill an unlearned model into a randomly initialized model, the resulting network is actually robust to relearning. We show why this works, how well it works, and how to trade off compute for robustness. Unlearn-and-Distill applies unlearning to a bad behavior and then distills the unlearned model into a new model. Distillation makes it way harder to retrain the new model to do the bad thing. Produced as part of the ML Alignment & Theory Scholars Program in the winter 2024–25 cohort of the shard theory stream. Read our paper on ArXiv and enjoy an interactive demo. Robust unlearning probably reduces AI risk Maybe some future AI has long-term goals and humanity is in its way. Maybe future open-weight AIs have tons of bioterror expertise. If a system has dangerous knowledge, that system becomes [...] --- Outline: (01:01) Robust unlearning probably reduces AI risk (02:42) Perfect data filtering is the current unlearning gold standard (03:24) Oracle matching does not guarantee robust unlearning (05:05) Distillation robustifies unlearning (07:46) Trading unlearning robustness for compute (09:49) UNDO is better than other unlearning methods (11:19) Where this leaves us (11:22) Limitations (12:12) Insights and speculation (15:00) Future directions (15:35) Conclusion (16:07) Acknowledgments (16:50) Citation The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: June 13th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/anX4QrNjhJqGFvrBr/distillation-robustifies-unlearning --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article:…

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“Intelligence Is Not Magic, But Your Threshold For ‘Magic’ Is Pretty Low” by Expertium 3:12

לפני 6 weeks3:12

3:12

A while ago I saw a person in the comments on comments to Scott Alexander's blog arguing that a superintelligent AI would not be able to do anything too weird and that "intelligence is not magic", hence it's Business As Usual. Of course, in a purely technical sense, he's right. No matter how intelligent you are, you cannot override fundamental laws of physics. But people (myself included) have a fairly low threshold for what counts as "magic," to the point where other humans can surpass that threshold. Example 1: Trevor Rainbolt. There is an 8-minute-long video where he does seemingly impossible things, such as correctly guessing that a photo of nothing but literal blue sky was taken in Indonesia or guessing Jordan based only on pavement. He can also correctly identify the country after looking at a photo for 0.1 seconds. Example 2: Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán. He ran [...] --- First published: June 15th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FBvWM5HgSWwJa5xHc/intelligence-is-not-magic-but-your-threshold-for-magic-is --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“A Straightforward Explanation of the Good Regulator Theorem” by Alfred Harwood 29:24

לפני 6 weeks29:24

29:24

Audio note: this article contains 329 uses of latex notation, so the narration may be difficult to follow. There's a link to the original text in the episode description. This post was written during the agent foundations fellowship with Alex Altair funded by the LTFF. Thanks to Alex, Jose, Daniel and Einar for reading and commenting on a draft. The Good Regulator Theorem, as published by Conant and Ashby in their 1970 paper (cited over 1700 times!) claims to show that 'every good regulator of a system must be a model of that system', though it is a subject of debate as to whether this is actually what the paper shows. It is a fairly simple mathematical result which is worth knowing about for people who care about agent foundations and selection theorems. You might have heard about the Good Regulator Theorem in the context of John [...] --- Outline: (03:03) The Setup (07:30) What makes a regulator good? (10:36) The Theorem Statement (11:24) Concavity of Entropy (15:42) The Main Lemma (19:54) The Theorem (22:38) Example (26:59) Conclusion --- First published: November 18th, 2024 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JQefBJDHG6Wgffw6T/a-straightforward-explanation-of-the-good-regulator-theorem --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts , or another podcast app.…

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“Beware General Claims about ‘Generalizable Reasoning Capabilities’ (of Modern AI Systems)” by LawrenceC 34:11

לפני 6 weeks34:11

34:11

1. Late last week, researchers at Apple released a paper provocatively titled “The Illusion of Thinking: Understanding the Strengths and Limitations of Reasoning Models via the Lens of Problem Complexity”, which “challenge[s] prevailing assumptions about [language model] capabilities and suggest that current approaches may be encountering fundamental barriers to generalizable reasoning”. Normally I refrain from publicly commenting on newly released papers. But then I saw the following tweet from Gary Marcus: I have always wanted to engage thoughtfully with Gary Marcus. In a past life (as a psychology undergrad), I read both his work on infant language acquisition and his 2001 book The Algebraic Mind; I found both insightful and interesting. From reading his Twitter, Gary Marcus is thoughtful and willing to call it like he sees it. If he's right about language models hitting fundamental barriers, it's worth understanding why; if not, it's worth explaining where his analysis [...] --- Outline: (00:13) 1. (02:13) 2. (03:12) 3. (08:42) 4. (11:53) 5. (15:15) 6. (18:50) 7. (20:33) 8. (23:14) 9. (28:15) 10. (33:40) Acknowledgements The original text contained 7 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: June 11th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5uw26uDdFbFQgKzih/beware-general-claims-about-generalizable-reasoning --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article:…

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“Season Recap of the Village: Agents raise $2,000” by Shoshannah Tekofsky 13:24

לפני 7 weeks13:24

13:24

Four agents woke up with four computers, a view of the world wide web, and a shared chat room full of humans. Like Claude plays Pokemon, you can watch these agents figure out a new and fantastic world for the first time. Except in this case, the world they are figuring out is our world. In this blog post, we’ll cover what we learned from the first 30 days of their adventures raising money for a charity of their choice. We’ll briefly review how the Agent Village came to be, then what the various agents achieved, before discussing some general patterns we have discovered in their behavior, and looking toward the future of the project. Building the Village The Agent Village is an idea by Daniel Kokotajlo where he proposed giving 100 agents their own computer, and letting each pursue their own goal, in their own way, according to [...] --- Outline: (00:50) Building the Village (02:26) Meet the Agents (08:52) Collective Agent Behavior (12:26) Future of the Village --- First published: May 27th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jyrcdykz6qPTpw7FX/season-recap-of-the-village-agents-raise-usd2-000 --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article:…

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“The Best Reference Works for Every Subject” by Parker Conley 13:02

לפני 7 weeks13:02

13:02

Introduction The Best Textbooks on Every Subject is the Schelling point for the best textbooks on every subject. My The Best Tacit Knowledge Videos on Every Subject is the Schelling point for the best tacit knowledge videos on every subject. This post is the Schelling point for the best reference works for every subject. Reference works provide an overview of a subject. Types of reference works include charts, maps, encyclopedias, glossaries, wikis, classification systems, taxonomies, syllabi, and bibliographies. Reference works are valuable for orienting oneself to fields, particularly when beginning. They can help identify unknown unknowns; they help get a sense of the bigger picture; they are also very interesting and fun to explore. How to Submit My previous The Best Tacit Knowledge Videos on Every Subject uses author credentials to assess the epistemics of submissions. The Best Textbooks on Every Subject requires submissions to be from someone who [...] --- Outline: (00:10) Introduction (01:00) How to Submit (02:15) The List (02:18) Humanities (02:21) History (03:46) Religion (04:02) Philosophy (04:29) Literature (04:43) Formal Sciences (04:47) Computer Science (05:16) Mathematics (05:59) Natural Sciences (06:02) Physics (06:16) Earth Science (06:33) Astronomy (06:47) Professional and Applied Sciences (06:51) Library and Information Sciences (07:34) Education (08:00) Research (08:32) Finance (08:51) Medicine and Health (09:21) Meditation (09:52) Urban Planning (10:24) Social Sciences (10:27) Economics (10:39) Political Science (10:54) By Medium (11:21) Other Lists like This (12:41) Further Reading --- First published: May 14th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HLJMyd4ncE3kvjwhe/the-best-reference-works-for-every-subject --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“‘Flaky breakthroughs’ pervade coaching — and no one tracks them” by Chipmonk 9:31

לפני 7 weeks9:31

9:31

Has someone you know ever had a “breakthrough” from coaching, meditation, or psychedelics — only to later have it fade? Show tweet For example, many people experience ego deaths that can last days or sometimes months. But as it turns out, having a sense of self can serve important functions (try navigating a world that expects you to have opinions, goals, and boundaries when you genuinely feel you have none) and finding a better cognitive strategy without downsides is non-trivial. Because the “breakthrough” wasn’t integrated with the conflicts of everyday life, it fades. I call these instances “flaky breakthroughs.” It's well-known that flaky breakthroughs are common with psychedelics and meditation, but apparently it's not well-known that flaky breakthroughs are pervasive in coaching and retreats. For example, it is common for someone to do some coaching, feel a “breakthrough”, think, “Wow, everything is going to be different from [...] --- Outline: (03:01) Almost no practitioners track whether breakthroughs last. (04:55) What happens during flaky breakthroughs? (08:02) Reduce flaky breakthroughs with accountability (08:30) Flaky breakthroughs don't mean rapid growth is impossible (08:55) Conclusion --- First published: June 4th, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bqPY63oKb8KZ4x4YX/flaky-breakthroughs-pervade-coaching-and-no-one-tracks-them --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO . --- Images from the article:…

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“The Value Proposition of Romantic Relationships” by johnswentworth 23:19

לפני 8 weeks23:19

23:19

What's the main value proposition of romantic relationships? Now, look, I know that when people drop that kind of question, they’re often about to present a hyper-cynical answer which totally ignores the main thing which is great and beautiful about relationships. And then they’re going to say something about how relationships are overrated or some such, making you as a reader just feel sad and/or enraged. That's not what this post is about. So let me start with some more constructive motivations… First Motivation: Noticing When The Thing Is Missing I had a 10-year relationship. It had its ups and downs, but it was overall negative for me. And I now think a big part of the problem with that relationship was that it did not have the part which contributes most of the value in most relationships. But I did not know that at the time. Recently, I [...] --- Outline: (00:40) First Motivation: Noticing When The Thing Is Missing (01:29) Second Motivation: Selecting For and Cultivating The Thing (02:25) Some Pointers To The Thing (03:17) How To Manufacture Relationships In The Lab (04:53) Ace Aro Relationships (08:04) Some Pointers To Willingness to Be Vulnerable (12:33) Unfolding The Thing (13:11) Play (15:18) Emotional Support (16:21) A Tiny High-Trust Community (18:18) Communication (21:28) The Obvious Caveat (22:20) Summary The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: June 2nd, 2025 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/L2GR6TsB9QDqMhWs7/the-value-proposition-of-romantic-relationships --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO .…

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“Tracing the Thoughts of a Large Language Model” by Adam Jermyn

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“Tracing the Thoughts of a Large Language Model” by Adam Jermyn