Tariffs and Inflation

Notes on the Week Ahead

Investors this week will be focused on the implications of the U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. While this is clearly a very significant event from a geopolitical perspective, it may be less important for financial markets.

The key issue is how Iran responds. One often-mentioned scenario is that they could try to close the Strait of Hormuz. Such a move would have a dramatic impact on world energy markets as roughly 20% of the world’s oil production moves through the Strait. However, this strategy would be highly counterproductive for Iran, first, because it would eliminate its own ability to export oil and second because it would trigger a U.S. effort to reopen the Strait that could further damage Iran’s depleted military capabilities.