BoE division, data confusion, looming US CPI | Taking Trump’s manufacturing pledges to task

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

After an extraordinarily divisive Bank of England policy meeting, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explores why it’s become so difficult to get a clear read on the UK economy. Part of the problem lies with the data – an issue now making headlines in the US following Donald Trump’s dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner. Neil explains what this means for the credibility of official data and what to watch for in the upcoming BLS inflation release, which could prove pivotal for the Fed’s September decision. Plus, Thomas Ryan from our US team looks at why Trump’s promises to restore American manufacturing are likely to fall far short of reality.

Analysis and events referenced in this episode:

Read: Miran a good pick for the Fed
Read: Integrity of economic data safe for now

US Drop-In: Are higher tariff rates fuelling inflation – and how should the Fed respond?
Data: UK Employment Indicator
Read: Tariffs will not fix decades-long manufacturing decline