How the global economy is fracturing under Trump

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

Donald Trump and his trade war are symptoms, not causes, of a deeper shift in the global economic order. The world has fractured into rival blocs, with the US and China emerging as the poles of competing systems, vying for resources, technological dominance and geopolitical influence. Now, with Trump back in office, long-held assumptions about American leadership are once again in question. What does his return mean for the trajectory of this fracturing, and how has the balance of risks evolved?

In this special edition of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams explore the fracturing of the global economy. Ahead of the publication of fresh analysis about how fracturing has developed since Trump's return, they talk to David Wilder about how this process began long before the president was elected in 2016, how it’s accelerating under his second term and where it might lead. Topics covered in this 30-minute episode include:

• The inevitability of US–China economic rivalry – and the scope for détente
• How fracturing is fuelling a global tech arms race
• Whether Trump’s unilateralism could further strain or even break Western alliances.

Events and analysis referenced in this episode:

Fracturing under Trump – Register now:
Singapore, 3rd September
Hong Kong, 4th September
London, 17th September
New York, 9th October

Read: The fracturing of the global economy
Read: The US, China and the Fractured Age